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Oil prices pose threat to airlines’ profits and survival, IATA warns

• IATA expects global profits to fall $4bn • BA boss predicts more airlines will go under • High oil price ‘poses real challenge to industry’ Airlines have slashed their global profit forecast in half after warning that high oil prices, the Japanese tsunami and the Arab spring will remove $4bn (£2.43bn) from the industry’s bottom line this year. Willie Walsh, chief executive of British Airways and Iberia parent International Airlines Group, warned that that European carriers will bear the brunt of the impact from high fuel costs, with some operators going out of business. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said carriers will make a worldwide profit of $4bn this year, down from a previous estimate of $8.6bn. After recording a net profit of $18bn last year, the industry is slipping perilously close to its loss-making years of 2008 and 2009, with a profit margin of just 0.7% expected in 2011. Asked if some carriers will go under, as happened to dozens of airlines in the wake of the 2008 oil spike when prices hit $147 a barrel, Walsh said: “I fully expect that to happen.” Referring to the current price for Brent crude of $115 a barrel, he added: “I think the high oil price is something that poses a real challenge to the industry. There are lots of airlines that will struggle in a high oil price environment.” Fuel will account for nearly a third of industry costs this year. Walsh said the world economy was in better shape than during the previous oil spike, but Europe is in a weaker state than the Americas and the Asia-Pacific regions. “Some will suffer more than others, such as those airlines operating in economies that are weaker. The strength of the global economy is driven by Asia and Latin America to a large degree so airlines operating in those areas will be less affected than airlines operating in a European context. It is likely to have more of an impact in Europe than in other parts of the world.” Giovanni Bisignani, IATA chief executive, again called on governments to cut aviation levies which are expected to cost carriers in the UK, Germany and Austria a combined $6bn this year. “Don’t kill the goose that lays golden eggs,” he said. “Aviation facilitates the global trade that is stimulating economies and restoring government budgets. Tax the bankers who created the mess. Their billions of dollars in bonuses should help clean it up,” Bisignani said. The IATA forecast predicts a slowdown in leisure air travellers as higher oil prices push up fares, but business class travel is expected to grow by up to 6% due to “growing world trade and business investment.” However, the mismatch between capacity growth and demand, an historic bane of the industry, is set to continue with passenger growth of 4.7% to be outstripped by a 5.8% increase in the amount of seats flown. This puts pressure on fares, as more flights compete for the same amount of passengers, which in turn hits bottom lines already struggling with the impact of higher fuel costs. Airline industry Oil Commodities Global economy Willie Walsh British Airways International Consolidated Airlines Group Dan Milmo guardian.co.uk

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British soldier killed in Afghanistan

Soldier from 1st Battalion The Rifles killed by bomb while on patrol on Helmand is third UK soldier to die in three days A British soldier has been killed in Afghanistan, the Ministry of Defence has announced. The soldier, from the 1st Battalion The Rifles, was killed by an improvised explosive device on Sunday while on patrol in the Haji Kareen area of the Nahr-e Saraj (South) District of Helmand province. The death is the third announced in three days by the MoD. A Royal Marine, from 42 Commando Royal Marines, was shot dead on Sunday morning on patrol in the Nahr-e Saraj area, while Corporal Michael Pike, 26, from Huntly, Scotland, was fatally wounded by insurgents who attacked his patrol with guns and rocket-propelled grenades in the Lashkar Gah district of Helmand on Friday. Spokesman for Taskforce Helmand, Lieutenant Colonel Tim Purbrick, said: “It is with great sadness that I have to inform you of the death of a soldier from 1st Battalion The Rifles in the Haji Kareen area of the Nahr-e Saraj district in Helmand province. “The soldier was part of a foot patrol, supporting an Afghan National Security Forces operation to clear one of the last remaining insurgent safe havens in Central Helmand, when he was fatally wounded by an improvised explosive device. “Our thoughts and prayers are with his family and friends. “The family have been informed and have requested a 24-hour period before further details are released.” The latest incident brings the total number of UK military personnel who have died since operations in Afghanistan began in 2001 to 371. Cpl Pike died saving the lives of his comrades as he took on the enemy in a firefight, his men said. His friends and colleagues, from 4th Battalion, The Royal Regiment of Scotland, said he was killed “putting up a fight” and “saving the lives of the men he was devoted to”. They said the father-of-two was the epitome of a Highland soldier and would not have wanted his fellow soldiers to dwell on his loss. Cpl Pike, described as a “loving and caring family man”, leaves behind a wife, Ida, and two children, Joshua and Evelynn. His wife said: “My husband would want everybody to know that he died doing a job he loved and that he loved our children with all his heart and soul.” Cpl Pike, second in command of 2 Platoon, A Company, based at Check Point Pegasus, was on his second tour of Afghanistan. He was leading the patrol in the area of Pupalzay along Highway 601 when it came under attack. He fired back on the enemy and his colleagues praised his quick reactions which allowed them time to move out of danger. His platoon said in a joint statement: “He passed away doing the job he loved but he didn’t go down without putting up a fight. “He was suppressing the enemy in order to cover the lead wagon, the ground call sign and to allow other call signs to manoeuvre out of immediate danger.” And Lieutenant Robert Grant, 2 Platoon Commander, A Company, said: “The loss of Corporal Pike, one of the funniest, most life-affirming and professionally diligent men I have ever had the privilege to meet, strikes deep in to the heart and soul of all those who knew him. “An exceptional soldier and inspirational leader, Corporal Pike will be forever missed. “His death, saving the lives of the men he was devoted to, marks the tragic end of a life that has touched so many, so deeply that it seems almost unreal.” Afghanistan Military guardian.co.uk

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E coli outbreak ‘trail’ leads to German bean sprouts, authorities say

Germans still being warned off cucumber and tomato but farm south of Hamburg is under the microscope The E coli outbreak that has killed more than 20 people was likely caused by bean sprouts grown in Germany, where the cases are centred. The revelation is causing further outrage in Spain, which was initially blamed for being the source. The aggressive strain of the E coli bacterium has so far killed 22 people, made more than 2,200 ill and led Russia to bar EU fruit and vegetable imports. The Spanish prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, has already said he will demand compensation for economic losses after many Spanish farms were forced to stop selling their products. Pressure is likely to increase on German officials after they said they believe the outbreak started at home. The Lower Saxony state agriculture minister, Gert Lindemann, told a news conference that investigators had traced the rare strain to a farm in the Uelzen district. Media reports said the farm was near the town of Bienenbuettel, 40 miles south of Hamburg. German authorities had initially blamed the outbreak on Spanish cucumbers . Lindemann, speaking after three weeks of mysterious deaths and widespread consumer fears, said there appeared to be clear links between vegetables from the farm and food eaten by some victims. “We’ve got a really hot lead,” he said. The health scare has strained ties between Germany and Spain and led the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, to say he would not “poison” Russians by lifting an embargo on EU fruit and vegetable imports. Lindemann said the Uelzen farm had been shut down and its produce recalled. Further test results were expected on Monday. Officials said they were not sure if the farm was the only source. Lindemann said it was possible the contaminated produce had found its way into a variety of foods, but said there was a “clear trail” to the farm. “It is the most convincing … source for the E coli illnesses. This is for us the most plausible cause of the illness.” Many of the restaurants in the outbreak had the sprouts delivered from Uelzen, and Lindemann said that not only beansprouts but also alfalfa, mung bean, radish and arugula sprouts from the farm might be connected to the outbreak. He added that consumers should continue to avoid raw cucumbers, tomatoes and salad leaves, as advised by Germany’s main health body, the Robert Koch Institute. The bacterium has so far infected people in 12 countries. All of them had been travelling in northern Germany. It has killed 21 Germans and one Swede. Many of those infected have developed haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS), a potentially deadly complication attacking the kidneys. Spanish farmers say they have lost €200m in sales a week. The crisis threatens to put 70,000 people out of work in Spain, which already has the highest unemployment in the EU. Germany’s health minister, Daniel Bahr, said health facilities in Hamburg were struggling to cope with the flood of victims . Germany’s second city is the centre of the outbreak. Hospital authorities said blood supplies were running low and staff were exhausted and working round the clock, with the northern cities of Hamburg and Bremen the worst affected. “They [the doctors] voluntarily come in on weekends and even sleep here,” Oliver Grieve, a spokesman for the Kiel University hospital in northern Germany, told Spiegel Online. Hamburg’s health minister, Cornelia Prüfer-Storcks, told a news conference the city was considering bringing doctors out of retirement. “We want to discuss with doctors about whether those who recently retired can be reactivated,” she said. Patients with less serious illnesses are being moved to nearby hospitals and operations for non-threatening diseases are being postponed. E coli Germany Europe Food Spain Adam Gabbatt guardian.co.uk

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Politics live blog – Monday 6 June

Rolling coverage of all the day’s political developments as they happen 9.02am: George Osborne didn’t have anything particularly new to say in his interview, but he did put on an audacious display of messenger shooting that should cheer government loyalists. I can’t remember the last time I heard a Tory minister clobber the BBC in an interview so robustly. Osborne defended his economic strategy but, in a rhetorical concession to the “plan B” merchants, he did insist that “flexibility” was already built into his plans. He also gave the impression that he’s expecting a thumbs up from the IMF when it publishes its verdict on the British e economy at 1.30pm. Here’s a full summary. • Osborne attacked the BBC for its negative coverage of the economy. It was refusing to report good news, he said: I’ve listened to news bulletins on your programme for the last year. Every time there is an unfortunate loss of jobs somewhere, a few hundred jobs, it’s on the news bulletin. I’ve not yet heard a single news bulletin that says 400,000 new jobs have been created over the last year. That just doesn’t appear on the news. Last week there was a disappointing manufacturing survey – it was on the news. Today, there is a more encouraging manufacturing survey – it’s not on the news. So I think what’s I’m asking for is a it bit of balance in the way we look at the British economy at the moment. He rejected the suggestion made before the interview started that he was “under pressure”. He said “many, many economists”, “many, many business organisations” and “all the international bodies” supported the government’s strategy. He said the comment from the OECD’s chief economist about the possible need for the government to slow the pace of defict reduction had been “over-interpreted” by the BBC. (This was unfair, because it was actually the Times that first carried the quote from Pier Carlo Padoan, the accuracy of which has not been challenged.) • Osborne defended his economic strategy. “The rock upon which the stability of the British economy rests at the moment is our credible fiscal plan,” he said. He also insisted that, although “leftwing academics” were criticising the government, that did not mean “that that is where the consensus of opinion is”. • He rejected claims that the economy was not growing. “It is not the case that all the data has shown there’s no growth in the British economy,” he said. “Actually we have seen employment rising, we have seen unemployment falling in recent months.” But he said he would like the economy to grow “even further”. • But he insisted that “flexibility” was already built into his economic strategy. Flexibility isn’t the same as having a “plan B” of the kind demanded by the experts who wrote to the Observer yesterday, but that fact that Osborne mentioned it suggests he does not want to be seen as too rigid. There is flexibility built into the plan that I announced a year ago… We’re talking about the structural deficit, so in other words we allow the automatic stabilisers to operate, which means that the economy can move up and down with the cycle, the government spending can move up and down with the cycle. We of course have an independent monetary policy committee and tighter fiscal policy gives the monetary policy committee greater freedom to operate monetary policy. We’re also planning to meet at the moment our mandate a year earlier – so we have flexibility built into our plan … This debate is quite binary … There’s an assumption that either you don’t do any cutting at all, or there’s my plan. My plan actually, I think, provides flexibility, but also stability and confidence. It’s flexible because it was very specifically designed to be cyclical. • He refused to say what the IMF would say about the British economy when it publishes a report on the subject at 1.30pm – although he sounded as if he was was expecting good news. The IMF was “the most independent of independent bodies,” he said. 8.17am: Montague asks whether Osborne will adapt his plan. Osborne says “flexibility” is built into his plan already. “Economic stablisers” will apply if growth is slower than expected, he says, adding: My plan provides flexibility, but also stability and confidence. His plan is flexible because it reflects the fact that the economy is cyclical, he says. Q: What’s your message to people? Should they be going out spending? Osborne says people need make their own decisions. And he returns to BBC-bashing. Whenever jobs are lost, that is on the news, he says. But he claims the BBC has not reported the fact that 400,000 jobs have been created. Q: Could it be worse ahead? That is not what the forecast says, Osborne replies. Q: But the spending cuts haven’t taken effect yet? Osborne says all the forecasts say the economy will grow. “That is good news.” The interview is over. I’ll post a summary soon. 8.14am: Sarah Montague, who is interviewing, says the OECD’s chief economist has suggested Osborne should slow the pace of deficit reduction. Osborne says the head of the OECD said Britain should not change course. He says the remarks from its chief economist were “over-interpreted” by the BBC. You can always assemble “leftwing academics” to criticise the government, he says, but that does not mean that they represent “the consensus of opinion”. He says businesses and families are enjoying lower business rates than they otherwise would be having because of the deficit reduction plan. That’s a “monetary stimulus”, he says. 8.12am: George Osborne is being interviewed now. He says the economy is growing. He would like it to grow faster, but it is growing. Q: Will the IMF endorse your plan? Osborne says he will not speak for the IMF. But it will be the first time the IMF has conducted an in-depth study into one of the five “systemic” economies in the world. Q: What are they going to say? Osborne say he will not speak for them, but they are one of the most independent bodies. 8.07am: It’s a busy start. George Osborne, the chancellor, is just about to give an interview to the Today programme. He will be responding to the economists and academics who wrote to the Observer yesterday saying he needs an economic “plan B”. And, after that, there’s plenty more to keep me busy. Here’s what’s coming up: 9.30am : Sarah Teather, the children’s minister, publishes the report from Reg Bailey on the sexualisation and commercialisation of childhood. As Patrick Wintour has reported, it will propose plans designed to stop retailers selling inappropriate clothes for pre-teens and to shield children from sexualised imagery across all media. Morning : Vince Cable, the business secretary, speaks at the GMB conference. As Polly Curtis reports, he will say that the government may tighten employment laws if the unions organise a wave of strikes this summer. 10am : Liam Fox, the defence secretary, speaks at the ConservativeHome conference. 11am : Andrew Mitchell, the international development secretary, speaks at the ConservativeHome conference. 1.30pm : The International Monetary Fund publishes a report on the British economy. 1.30pm : David Cameron has talks in Downing Street with the president of Romania. Afternoon : Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, speaks at the GMB conference. 7pm : John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, gives a public interview to the Independent columnist Steve Richards. This will be out of my time, but I’m mentioning it because it sounds good and you may be interested. There are more details here . As usual, I’ll be covering all the breaking political news as well as looking at the papers and bringing you the best politics from the web. I’ll post a lunchtime summary at around 1pm, and an afternoon one at about 4pm. 8.07am: It’s a busy start. George Osborne, the chancellor, is just about to give an interview to the today programme. He will be responding to the economists and academics who wrote to the Observer yesterday saying he needs an economic “plan B”. And, after that, there’s plenty more to keep my busy. Here’s what’s coming up. 9.30am: Sarah Teather, the children’s minister, publishes the report from Reg Bailey on the sexualisation and commercialisation of childhood. As Patrick Wintour has reported, it will propose plans designed to stop retailers selling inappropriate clothes for pre-teens and to shield children from sexualised imagery across all media. Morning: Vince Cable, the business secretary, speaks at the GMB conference. As Polly Curtis reports, he will say that the government may tighten employment laws if the unions organise a wave of strikes this summer. 10am: Liam Fox, the defence secretary, speaks at a ConservativeHome conference. 11am: Andrew Mitchell, the international development secretary, speaks at the ConservativeHome conference. 1.30pm: The International Monetary Fund publishes a report on the British economy. 1.30pm: David Cameron has talks in Downing Street with the president of Romania. Afternoon: Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, speaks at the GMB conference. 7pm: John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, gives a public interview to the Independent columnist Steve Richards. This will be out of my time, but I’m mentioning it because it sounds good and you may be interested. There are more details here. As usual, I’ll be covering all the breaking political news, as well as looking at the papers and bringing you the best politics from the web. I’ll post a lunchtime summary at around 1pm, and an afternoon one at about 4pm. George Osborne David Cameron Ed Balls John Bercow Andrew Sparrow guardian.co.uk

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Universities ‘complacent’ over Islamic extremism, warns Theresa May

Home secretary pre-empts revised Prevent strategy aimed at thwarting homegrown terrorism and radicalisation of students The home secretary has criticised universities for their “complacency” in tackling radicalisation and Islamic extremism on campus. The remarks pre-empt publication of the government’s revised Prevent strategy, which was originally launched in 2007 to stop the growth of homegrown terrorism. In an interview with the Daily Telegraph, Theresa May said: “I think for too long there’s been complacency around universities. I don’t think they have been sufficiently willing to recognise what can be happening on their campuses and the radicalisation that can take place. I think there is more that universities can do.” The government has identified 40 English universities where there could be a “particular risk” of radicalisation or recruitment on campus, according to the Daily Mail, which said it had seen the updated strategy. “More than 30% of people convicted for al-Qaida-associated terrorist offences in the UK … are known to have attended university or a higher education institution,” the Mail quoted the report as saying. It is understood the document also raises concerns over the Federation of Student Islamic Societies and what is seen as an insufficient willingness to tackle extremism. May told the Telegraph: “They need to be prepared to stand up and say that organisations that are extreme or support extremism or have extremist speakers should not be part of their grouping.” The newspaper said the strategy would contain details of partnerships with YouTube and AOL aimed at combating extremism online, as well as moves to limit access to extremist websites from schools and public libraries. The report will also name the 25 boroughs most at risk from Islamist extremism, including areas of London, Birmingham, Leeds, Bradford and Manchester, it was reported. It is understood about 20 of the organisations which have received funding over the last three years will have their funding cut. May said: “It’s a result of a close look at the values of the organisations themselves.” In November, the home secretary launched the Prevent strategy review – which was overseen by the independent counter-terrorism reviewer Lord Carlile of Berriew – saying it was not working as well as it could be. The £60m government programme was adopted after the 7 July bombings, and aims to counter militant Islamism by supporting mainstream Muslim groups which offer an alternative to extremism. But Prevent was criticised by some Muslims who said they feared it was being used to spy on their communities, and by other ethnic groups who believed they were missing out on financial support by comparison. A Home Office spokesman said: “The government is currently reviewing the Prevent programme, which isn’t working as well as it could. We need a strategy that is effective and properly focused. The findings will be published shortly.” Among those arrested for terrorism offences who have been linked to British universities is Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the so-called “underwear bomber”. He was detained on Christmas Day 2009 accused of trying to blow up a flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. A year and a half earlier he had graduated from University College London, where he was also president of the Islamic Society. UK security and terrorism Terrorism policy Global terrorism Higher education Islam Religion Student politics Theresa May guardian.co.uk

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Fox News Accidentally Shows Picture of Tina Fey in Story About Palin

Someone at Fox News has some serious 'splaining to do. During a Sunday segment about former Alaska governor Sarah Palin's interview with Chris Wallace earlier in the day, a picture of Tina Fey impersonating her nemesis was accidentally placed in the upper-right corner of the screen: The eagle eyes over at The Right Scoop blew up that picture in the corner to demonstrate that's Fey during one of her “Saturday Night Live” routines: You'd think the folks at Fox would know what one of their employees looked like. For those interested, a video clip of this faux pas is available here .

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Ollanta Humala expected to win Peru’s presidential election

Unofficial results give Ollanta Humala a narrow lead with 51.3% of the vote against 48.7% for Keiko Fujimori Ollanta Humala appeared on course to narrowly win Peru’s presidential election on Monday after moderating his firebrand left-wing image and promising to rule from the centre. Unofficial results gave the former army officer 51.3% of the vote against 48.7% for Keiko Fujimori, the right-wing daughter of a disgraced former president, after a bruising campaign which polarised the country. Humala’s supporters celebrated on Sunday night hours after polls closed, and Fujimori said she would concede – and not demand a recount – if official results confirmed the exit polls and unofficial tallies. Bolivia’s President Evo Morales did not wait for that to welcome the arrival of a fellow left-wing leader. “The great victory of Humala is the result of the people’s struggle for dignity and sovereignty,” he said. Humala won overwhelming support from impoverished indigenous voters in Andean highlands who feel left out by Peru’s mining-driven economic boom. He promised to share wealth more equally without frightening investors. The government of outgoing President Alan Garcia said it had a “contingency plan” to stabilise markets lest they panic at the prospect of a leftist populist who in a previous election modelled himself on Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. This time around Humala, 48, a former lieutenant colonel, traded red t-shirts and socialist rhetoric for sober suits and imitation of Brazil’s former president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Humala and Fujimori, 36, were reviled by many Peruvians as dangerous demagogues but centrist candidates cancelled each other in the first round, putting the two populists from opposite ends of the political spectrum into Sunday’s run-off. Mario Vargas Llosa, the Nobel laureate, called it a choice between cancer and Aids but backed Humala to “save democracy” on the grounds Fujimori would restore vices from her father, Alberto, who is in jail for corruption and human rights abuses during his rule in the 1990s. “What’s important is that we have been freed from the return to power of a dictatorship that was terribly corrupt and bloody,” he told CPN radio. “We should congratulate ourselves and celebrate.” Fujimori dropped a pledge to pardon her father and said she would respect judicial independence and other institutions guaranteeing Peru’s democracy. She appeared to win most votes in the capital, Lima, and in other coastal areas but trailed badly in rural areas. Business elites and some big media groups backed the young senator as the best bet for keeping a status quo which has turned Peru into south America’s economic tiger. They accused Vargas Llosa of being duped by Humala’s newly professed moderation. Both candidates promised anti-poverty measures including free school meals and childcare. Humala also insisted on taxing windfall mining profits but dropped plans to renegotiate free trade agreements and rewrite the constitution with a leftist tilt. Tarred by Fujimori as Chavez’s poodle, during the campaign Humala swore on the Bible to respect democracy and press freedom. “I will be a president who acts only within the constitution and the rule of law,” he said. He promised to steer Peru closer to the United States and Brazil than to Venezuela and its leftist allies in the region. Bill Richardson, a former New Mexico governor who was in Lima as an Organisation of American States election observer, played down concerns about Humala. “He is a nationalist and an enigma with evolving views and a pragmatic streak,” he told reporters. “I think he’s educable and the business community should give him a chance.” Peru Rory Carroll guardian.co.uk

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Roger Ailes: ‘Palin’s So Smart She’s Got the Press Running Up the East Coast Behind Her Bus’

For approaching three years, so-called journalists have been calling former Alaska governor Sarah Palin an idiot. In an interview with the Daily Beast's Howard Kurtz, Palin's employer at Fox News, Roger Ailes, marvelously said, “She's so smart she’s got the press corps running up the whole East Coast behind her bus”: Ailes told me he met with Palin in his Manhattan office, serving chicken sandwiches and giving her parents and daughter Piper a tour of the Fox studios. Palin told him she’ll decide on a White House bid this summer. Denying a New York magazine report that he called the former Alaska governor an idiot, Ailes marveled at the frenzy surrounding her tour of historic sites: “She’s so smart she’s got the press corps running up the whole East Coast behind her bus.” Ailes also commented about the recent hit piece about Fox and him at Rolling Stone magazine: As for Rolling Stone ’s charge that he has “built the most formidable propaganda machine ever seen outside of the Communist bloc,” Ailes does a bit of jujitsu, accusing NBC, CBS, ABC, The New York Times, and the rest of running “a liberal propaganda machine … If they did fair and balanced news, we’d be out of business.” Indeed.

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Roger Ailes: ‘Palin’s So Smart She’s Got the Press Running Up the East Coast Behind Her Bus’

For approaching three years, so-called journalists have been calling former Alaska governor Sarah Palin an idiot. In an interview with the Daily Beast's Howard Kurtz, Palin's employer at Fox News, Roger Ailes, marvelously said, “She's so smart she’s got the press corps running up the whole East Coast behind her bus”: Ailes told me he met with Palin in his Manhattan office, serving chicken sandwiches and giving her parents and daughter Piper a tour of the Fox studios. Palin told him she’ll decide on a White House bid this summer. Denying a New York magazine report that he called the former Alaska governor an idiot, Ailes marveled at the frenzy surrounding her tour of historic sites: “She’s so smart she’s got the press corps running up the whole East Coast behind her bus.” Ailes also commented about the recent hit piece about Fox and him at Rolling Stone magazine: As for Rolling Stone ’s charge that he has “built the most formidable propaganda machine ever seen outside of the Communist bloc,” Ailes does a bit of jujitsu, accusing NBC, CBS, ABC, The New York Times, and the rest of running “a liberal propaganda machine … If they did fair and balanced news, we’d be out of business.” Indeed.

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After months and months of telling viewers that deficit spending is the MOST important economic issue, the media has just realized that people aren’t buying it and that the jobless recovery is a better way to blame Obama. And to be sure, the Obama White House seems to be their own worst enemy, by not focusing on job stimulus and grabbing the framing away from the Republicans. Let’s be clear: Austan Goolsbee is partially right when he says that the jobs must come from the private sector. But what he leaves out is no company will simply hire people absent an increase of demand for whatever service or product they offer. Why cut into their profit margin unnecessarily like that? And demand doesn’t increase unless there are people looking to purchase those services (tellingly, one of those services that are seeing an increase in demand are for legal assistance for the rising number of divorces and bankruptcies people are going through). And people don’t demand additional goods and services if they are struggling financially–be it unemployed or underemployed. And hence, a vicious cycle: in order to get customers, we need to have a thriving middle class with low unemployment. But we won’t have that unless we get people working. And that’s where the government has to come in. By directing federal dollars towards infrastructure projects, the government hires companies, who must hire people, thus injecting much needed demand and money into the economy. But unfortunately, we’ve seen little movement from either the White House or Congress to invest federal dollars as such. No, where we are is still buying into the whole GOP framing, as demonstrated by US Chamber of Commerce’s Martin Regalia, insisting that deficit spending is the #2 priority behind extending the debt ceiling. See how the media still gives equal weight to the same talking points that have not done a single thing to improve the economy or employment rate? Even with Chrystia Freeland and Paul Krugman pointing out that this insistence that the government “get out of the way” and not suppress economic recovery with pesky regulations (presumably those few set to avoid another financial meltdown or ecological disaster), Regalia holds on to these GOP arguments and prevents any real discussion of solutions from happening. But then again, that may be *exactly* the GOP’s (and by extension, the Chamber of Commerce) intent : Fortunately for Republicans, our broken political system doesn’t function like most democracies, so they are relieved of this tough choice and direct accountability. Thanks to divided government, and more importantly the filibuster, even in the minority, Republicans still have sufficient power to hold basically everything hostage to demand spending cuts. They are able to win the cuts while forcing the Democrats who control the White House to share the political blame for unpopular moves. This strategy is on the verge of working out great for the Republicans again Republicans are about to push President Obama to reach a “compromise” on spending cuts so he will share the blame. Cuts that are not only likely to be unpopular, but as David Dayen points out, highly anti-stimulative . The CBO’s baseline assumptions are already very dark. CBO projects that the unemployment rate will gradually fall in the near term, to 9.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, 8.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, and 7.4 percent at the end of 2013. Only by 2016, in CBO’s forecast, does it reach 5.3 percent, close to the agency’s estimate of the natural rate of unemployment (the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand, which CBO now estimates to be 5.2 percent). These employment assumptions are based on basically consistent spending levels. If Republicans manage to push for immediate cuts, further reducing aggregate demand, the likely result is higher than projected unemployment in 2012. Slow growth and high unemployment is almost always devastating to incumbent presidents, which, in this case, would be a huge political win for Republicans. I can fully appreciate how the Republican Party’s seemingly bipolar behavior on deficits and spending cuts is such a smart policy and political win-win for the party. What I fail to understand is why Democrats are so willing to play into their rhetorical trap, or Democrats’ stubborn refusal to even consider changing the absurd rules that make this strategy possible. But it’s more than just political calculus, as Robert Reich points out : (T)here’s a third reason for Washington’s inaction [besides Republican political machinations and Democratic Party spin]. It’s not being talked about — which is itself evidence of the problem. The unemployed are politically invisible. They don’t make major campaign donations. They don’t lobby Congress. There’s no National Association of Unemployed People. Their ranks are filled with women who had been public employees, single mothers, minorities, young people trying to enter the labor force, and middle-aged men who have been out of work for longer than six months. You couldn’t find a collection of people with less political clout. And until such time that we can come together to make our collective voices heard, I don’t know that it will ever pierce through the insularity of the Beltway bubble.

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