This afternoon's report at Time.com's misnamed Curious Capitalist blog by Roya Wolverson (“GDP Report: What It Tells Us About the Debt”) is an embarrassing hash of omissions, errors, and gratuitous political points. Ms. Wolverson's most obvious omission is her failure to mention the government's breathtaking downward revision to first quarter gross domestic product growth from the annualized 1.9% announced in late June to today's revised 0.4% . That's a nearly 80% hit to where we thought we were just 30 days ago, indicating how anemic the so-called recovery has been. It also gives one reason to doubt that today's 1.3% figure for the second quarter will hold up in subsequent revisions. What follows are excerpted paragraphs containing just some of Ms. Wolverson's errors and political postures: The bad news just keeps coming. The U.S. economy grew even less than expected in the second quarter, at a rate of 1.3% [1] , down from what many economists predicted would be 1.8% or higher [1] . The reasons for the continued lackluster performance haven't changed. Consumers, squeezed by higher gas and other prices, are buying less of everything from electronics to meals out to new furniture. Japan's tsunami, which raised production costs for U.S. auto makers, hasn't helped. Those factors are keeping a lid on U.S. jobs, which are, of course, the economy's ticket to higher short-term growth. But the dismal overall growth numbers masked some potentially good news for U.S. jobs. On the bright side, businesses spent more (up 6.3%) [2] in the second quarter, and in a rare move, investments in housing ticked up (3.8%). Those are crucial for U.S. job prospects, since the bulk of job creation comes from stifled small businesses, which rely most on a rebound in housing to invest and spend. So far, small business hiring has been dragging for two reasons. One is because those businesses can't get access to credit, and the other is because they're reluctant to borrow given the slew of economic uncertainties ahead. [3] … The good news out of the GDP numbers is, if housing investment continues to tick up and buoy property values, it will provide huge relief where the jobs market (via small banks and small businesses) needs it most. … Another key takeaway from the Commerce Department's GDP report is that much of the drag on growth in the second quarter came from government pullbacks. Government represented 1.23 percentage points of the overall growth drop [4] , with state and local cuts accounting 0.41 percentage points of that and defense cuts making up 0.74 percentage points [4] . The sharp drop off in state and local government spending (a 3.4% drop) [5] reflects the dry up in federal stimulus, which has forced local authorities to slash tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in spending to comply with balanced-budget requirements. The current debt debate is bound to make things worse. … … the very policymakers scrambling to make good on our obligations by slamming on the breaks are the ones threatening to escalate government debt. [6] Notes: [1] — Throughout her report, Wolverson never gives any indication of an understanding that the figures presented are annualized. This will become clearer in a later note, but for now I'll just note that any casual reader will believe that the economy actually got 1.3% bigger in the second quarter, instead of roughly 0.325% bigger. [2] — Business spending went up 7.1%, not 6.3%, as seen in this cobbled-together graphic from Table 1 of the BEA's full report . Wolverson's 6.3% is the figure for nonresidential fixed investment. [3] — Small business credit availability is hardly an issue when there's little desire to hire or expand. Steve Wynn of Wynn Resorts expressed current business sentiment perfectly earlier this month when he referred to the palpable “fear” and “fright” throughout the business community. The Obama administration, including the President himself, his cabinet, his czars, and his frontline regulators are primarily responsible for creating our
Continue reading …Click here to view this media Well, it looks at though we’re in for a weekend of political theater. As Lawrence O’Donnell noted when talking to Sen. Kent Conrad about the latest coming out of the Senate tonight, it appears Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is not done pulling political stunts. Apparently McConnell just told Leader Reid that he will not negotiate directly with him, and will only negotiate with President Obama. McConnell also told Reid that he would not allow Reid’s bill to pass with a simple majority vote, so in other words, he’s going to allow the Senate to filibuster. This means that the Senate would not be allowed to vote on Reid’s bill until Sunday at 1am and in the mean time, the House would be voting on Reid’s bill sometime tomorrow. If McConnell wants to filibuster Reid’s bill, I say it’s time for them to break out the cots, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen since the Senate already adjourned tonight. It would be nice to see a clean bill pass that simply raises the debt ceiling instead of these bills they’ve been negotiating passing. I guess we’ll find out shortly if that’s too much to hope for or not. In the mean time, they’re taking this dangerous game of chicken with our economy right up to the wire with more stalling from Republicans.
Continue reading …OK, I watched this on FOX Business Channel when Boehner was speaking and it’s just spooky. “I stuck my neck out a mile to try to get an agreement with the president of the United States,” Boehner continued to grumbling among Democrats. “Hey, I put revenues on the table in order to try to come to an agreement in order to avert us being where we are. But a lot of people in this town can never say yes.” Boehner closed his remarks by thundering: “This House has acted. And it is time for the administration and time for our colleagues across the aisle… put something on the table! Tell us where you are!” You can hear members in the House kind of hiss or make weird noises in the background. There’s wasn’t the usual cheers of support from fellow members of his caucus. Clearly Majority leader John Boehner in not in charge of the House Republicans, but the Tea Party members so he’s a very frustrated man.
Continue reading …CNN's American Morning co-hosts tried to lecture those opposed to voting to raise the debt ceiling on the error of their ways on Friday morning. When a guest GOP congressman tried to explain why he was voting no, and complained of being “vilified” for his stance, Romans showed him no mercy. The American Morning co-host accused the dissenting Republicans who voted “no” to Boehner's plan Thursday night of holding the debt ceiling “hostage” to enacting bigger spending cuts. She made sure to emphasize that Tea Partiers and Republicans could be blamed if the economy dives. [Video below the break.] “I'll tell you why they're vilified,” Romans spat back at her guest, Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.). “They're vilified because there are two different things here.” “There's the debt ceiling, which is paying for what Congress has already passed and already agreed on, and then there's getting the budget deficit and our debt and deficits under control, which is something else. And you guys are using the debt ceiling as leverage to work on that bigger long-term unsustainable debt story.” Later in the next hour, Romans actually asked guest Stephen Moore of the Wall Street Journal to explain to dissenting Republicans why not raising the debt ceiling would be a bad idea. In her interview with Rep. Gowdy, Romans baited the congressman to admit that the terms of the debate at the present were favorable to Republicans and that the Tea Party members should have accepted. “Isn't that enough?” she said of the spending cuts and absence of tax increases. A transcript of the segments, which aired on July 29 at 7:31 a.m. EDT and 8:34 a.m. EDT respectively, is as follows: CNN AMERICAN MORNING 7/29/11 7:31 a.m. EDT Rep. TREY GOWDY (R-S.C.): Our job is to – or at least I view my job as the congressman for the fourth congressional district in South Carolina, is to vote the collective conscience of my constituents, which is this – we have a $14 trillion problem. The notion of giving the president a clean debt increase was never going to happen, so the issue then becomes what's the best thing you can get in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Many of us who are labeled or vilified or whatever the proper word is, as “extremists” and “radicals” have already voted twice to raise the debt ceiling. Once in Paul Ryan's budget. CHRISTINE ROMANS: I'll tell you why they're vilified. They're vilified because there are two different things here. There's the debt ceiling, which is paying for what Congress has already passed and already agreed on, and then there's getting the budget deficit and our debt and deficits under control, which is something else. And you guys are using the debt ceiling as leverage to work on that bigger long-term unsustainable debt story. You've made a lot of progress. You have got the president on board, with even talking about entitlement reforms. You've got him up to what, three or four trillion dollars in cuts, and you've got a national conversation about living beyond our means. Isn't that enough? GOWDY: It's progress in the right direction, but I would respectfully say to you if more Congresses has used raising the debt ceiling as a leverage point, then you and I may not be having this conversation. I think it's instructive that five years ago, the president, the vice president, voted no on raising the debt ceiling. So the notion that it is all of a sudden calamitous or that calamitous has a different definition because Republicans are running the House is balder dash. I am happy to raise the debt ceiling. I have voted to do it twice, but I want the 75th time to be the last time. ROMANS: So you said if you think calamitous is balder dash, I just want to give you a couple, okay, so Credit Suisse says stocks may fall 30 percent if the U.S. defaults. 30 percent for stocks. That means your constituents would see their 401(k)s go down. You have bank presidents, bank CEOs saying raise the debt ceiling this week, please, or we will suffer grave consequences and you have strains already showing up, sir, in the short-term lending markets. The short-term credit markets, companies pulling out billions of dollars because they want to wait and see what's going to happen next. We're already seeing the strains. GOWDY: Well do this for me, read the quotes of what will happen if our bond rating is downgraded, which is going to happen if we don't bend the spending arc in this country. The dichotomy – ROMANS: Well I think we all agree on that. So here's the thing, there's two things happening — GOWDY: Well if we agree on it, then let's fix it. ROMANS: Well exactly, but fix it in a responsible way. If you don't raise the debt ceiling and suddenly you have a 40 percent cut in government spending, a 40 percent slam-on-the-brakes quickly in the economy. That would have calamitous effects on jobs. I mean, that's not an opinion. That's not editorializing. That is a fact, Congressman. So how do we do it in a responsible way without holding the debt ceiling hostage to it? GOWDY: Well, here's another fact. The House Republicans have voted twice to raise the debt ceiling. One was voted down in the Senate, the other was not even given the luxury of a vote. It was tabled. So we've done it twice. If the Senate has a plan, they certainly haven't shared it with us. And if the president has a plan, he certainly hasn't shared it with us. What we'll do today, and I predict it will be done today, is for the third time, send a plan that raises the debt ceiling in a responsible way. The Senate hasn't done it. The White House hasn't done it. I just respectfully disagree with you. Nobody wants a default. I have not met a soul that wants a default. Nor do we want a downgrade, which is coming if we do not bend the spending arc in this country. I happen to think we can do both. We can avert a default and bend the spending arc and avoid a downgrade, and let's don't kid ourselves, a downgrade is just as insidious as a default over the long term. ROMANS: Yes. I mean, it absolutely is. And we know that the – our deficits and debts are unsustainable. We know that. But the concern here is, and you must be concerned, that you and your – and the Tea Party part of your party and your party, could be blamed if this whole thing goes south because there isn't a political solution in Washington. (…) ROMANS: And Congressman, I'll get you there. Even, you know, Ali and I and others have been reporting for years on the unsustainable debt situation. Only this time if it comes down to a downgrade, technical default or real default on our bonds and it ends up costing us more in the end, when fixing our spending actually costs us more because of the way we've gone about fixing our spending then that would just hurt everyone. (…) CNN AMERICAN MORNING 7/29/11 8:34 a.m. EDT ROMANS: Stephen, I want you to sort of use this moment since you are ideologically aligned with the people who are holding this back to tell them – because many of them are not believing us or anyone else that there are ramifications in global markets if we don't raise the debt ceiling. Could you just try to tell them here in this venue what happens if we don't raise the debt ceiling, what message that sends to capital markets and securities markets around the world? STEPHEN MOORE, senior economics writer, Wall Street Journal editorial page: I don't think it's the end of the world. I think – here is my opinion on this. I think a bigger danger right now that you all and the press are not focusing enough on, is if we do get a debt deal done and the financial markets say, you know what, this isn't serious, this isn't a serious plan to deal with the debt, that could also spark a financial crisis because people would then say the American political system is not capable of dealing this for – do you know what I mean? Ali, you got to admit that's a risk too. VELSHI: Sure, but let's clarify for our viewers, because this is something you understand that we didn't, we're not getting clear from a lot of these congressional Republicans who keep on saying we are likely to get a downgrade anyway. The downgrade that we may get because we've been unable to deal with this is a small downgrade from AAA. The downgrade you get by defaulting on a loan – we all agree we're not likely to go down that road – it's a very different kind of downgrade. That is a serious one. MOORE: I think both scenarios are serious, quite frankly. My preferred solution is to get the biggest cuts in spending that we can with enforceable caps, whether we get there or not. Look, we're going to get two or three trillion dollars of savings over ten years. That's a start but over the next ten years we're going to spend $40 trillion. So, you know, we've got a big debt crisis on our hand and this is only the first step. And don't forget, once we get this resolved we'll be talking – then we're going to be talking about the spending bills that come down in September. So this is like Groundhog's Day, right? This debate over the budget just never seems to end.
Continue reading …Jon Stewart took a shot at the House Republicans for what their logic might have been when deciding to use a scene from The Town to inspire their members to vote for John Boehner’s debt ceiling bill.
Continue reading …Pedro Almodóvar made him a star. But then Hollywood beckoned and actor abandoned mentor. Twenty years on, they’re back together – and boy does it feel good… Three decades ago, an impoverished young actor named Antonio Banderas was sitting with friends outside Madrid’s National theatre when a curious figure happened by. The new arrival sported a
Continue reading …Pedro Almodóvar made him a star. But then Hollywood beckoned and actor abandoned mentor. Twenty years on, they’re back together – and boy does it feel good… Three decades ago, an impoverished young actor named Antonio Banderas was sitting with friends outside Madrid’s National theatre when a curious figure happened by. The new arrival sported a
Continue reading …US environmental bureau denies claim that Charles Monnett’s suspension is linked to his work with polar bears The official overseeing offshore oil drilling in Alaska said that a top Arctic scientist was suspended for “integrity issues” outside his work on polar bears. Charles Monnett, a US government wildlife biologist who first exposed the threat to polar bears posed by melting sea ice, was suspended on 18 July. His defence team – which was not told of the specific allegations against Monnett – said his suspension may be linked to a months-old investigation into potential scientific misconduct in his work on polar
Continue reading …US environmental bureau denies claim that Charles Monnett’s suspension is linked to his work with polar bears The official overseeing offshore oil drilling in Alaska said that a top Arctic scientist was suspended for “integrity issues” outside his work on polar bears. Charles Monnett, a US government wildlife biologist who first exposed the threat to polar bears posed by melting sea ice, was suspended on 18 July. His defence team – which was not told of the specific allegations against Monnett – said his suspension may be linked to a months-old investigation into potential scientific misconduct in his work on polar
Continue reading …Software giant’s founder has sold 90m shares in 12 months, but still has 500m; cash goes to help his foundation’s charitable work Bill Gates has sold another 5 million of his Microsoft shares, according to a regulatory filing. Microsoft’s multi-billionaire founder has been selling shares in recent months. He is the company’s non-executive chairman, having stepped back from running the software firm in 2008 to concentrate on his charity work. According to the filing, Gates sold 5m shares in Microsoft at an average $27.59 each on July 27. He has sold more than 90m Microsoft shares in the past 12 months. Gates still has more than 500m shares in the company, but has decreased his shareholding over the last two years to fund his charitable endeavours and to diversify his portfolio. This week the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation said it was making $42m available for eight universities to develop a toilet that does not need a sewer connection, water or electricity to operate. The ain is to improve people’s health in parts of the world where there are few if any flushable toilets. He is also backing research into improving education. “Every student needs a meaningful credential beyond high school,” Gates said in a speech last week. “Higher education is crucial for jobs,” he said, calling education an equaliser in society and the answer to getting urban America back to work and fighting poverty. Forbes magazine estimates Gates’s fortune at $56bn. Once the world’s richest man, he is now second to Mexican telecoms mogul Carlos Slim after giving away a large chunk of his fortune to his charity. Gates and long-time friend Warren Buffett have pledged to give away the majority of their fortunes to charity before their deaths, and have convinced a host of other billionaires, including Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg, to follow suit. Bill Gates Microsoft United States Charities US economy Computing Dominic Rushe guardian.co.uk
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