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UK immigration analysis needed on Turkish legal migration, say MPs

Home Office must assess impact of Turkish entry into EU to avoid repeat of 2004 influx of eastern European migrants Home Office ministers need to order an official assessment of the likely scale of legal migration to Britain should Turkey join the European Union, a Commons committee has urged. The home affairs select committee also says that much more must be done to improve security on Turkey’s borders before it should be allowed to join the EU. The land border with Greece is now the main loophole for irregular migration into Europe with 350 migrants trying to cross it every day in 2010 and more than 75% of trafficked heroin into the EU also flows across its borders. The MPs’ report says that the available forecasts for the likely flow of Turkish nationals to other European countries should it join the EU range from 500,000 to 4.4 million up until 2030. One estimate by Oxford University suggests that the figure could be as low as 60,000 to 70,000 a year to Europe as a whole. “Current migration of Turkish nationals to the EU has declined to below 50,000 a year but population trends and the gap in living standards could make easier migration within the EU an attractive option for Turkish citizens,” says the report published on Monday. “Given the UK’s experience after the 2004 enlargement, when many thousands more migrants arrived than expected, the committee is cautious about allowing Turkish citizens full freedom of movement and supports the government’s commitment to applying ‘effective transitional controls as a matter of course’ for all new member states,” says the report. The Home Office says that there are about 150,000 Turkish nationals living in Britain at present, with about 500,000 people of Turkish origin living in the country altogether. But Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and France all have larger Turkish communities which are more likely to attract a new wave of legal migration. Current discussions in Brussels assume that Turkey could join the EU in 2020 but no final decisions have been made and there is significant opposition among some member states. Home Office immigration minister Damian Green, giving evidence to the committee’s inquiry, said it was impossible to make any kind of realistic assessment at the moment on the impact of Turkish accession to the EU on likely migration patterns. He said that “we don’t know any of the basic facts”, including whether a transitional period under which Britain could restrict the flow of Turkish migrant workers will be put in place. Green also pointed out that Turkey traditionally had much stronger links with Germany than Britain and had an economy which was growing at a faster rate than India, meaning many Turks might well stay at home. However, the MPs say that, while the Home Office was no doubt wary of attracting criticism for producing inaccurate estimates in the future, they were concerned that no official impact analysis has yet been carried out: “Accordingly we recommend that the Home Office undertakes this piece of work now and updates it as circumstances change.” Ministers do not want to repeat the experience of 2004 when Poland and other east European states joined and an annual net migration prediction of 13,000 proved well wide of the mark. Immigration and asylum Turkey European Union Europe Alan Travis guardian.co.uk

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EU fishing fleets discarded £2.7bn of cod, claims report

Fishing fleets have thrown away 2.1m tonnes of cod worth £2.7bn to avoid falling foul of EU regulations, says the New Economics Foundation UK fishing crews have thrown away stocks of cod worth about £1bn since 1963 due to the practice of discarding catches which exceed or fall outside quotas, according to a thinktank report. Across all EU fleets, stocks of cod worth £2.7bn were discarded in the North Sea, the Channel and Skagerrak, the strait adjoining Norway, Sweden and the north of Denmark between 1963 and 2008, the New Economics Foundation (NEF) study, Money Overboard, calculated. Using discard data compiled by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and focusing just on cod, one of the best-documented stocks, the NEF calculated that just over 2.1m tonnes of the fish was thrown overboard during the period. The report adds fuel to the bitter debate over the longstanding fisheries practice, particularly prevalent in heavy-regulated EU waters, of throwing overboard a significant proportion of any catch – up to two thirds in some areas – most of which is by this time dead or dying. The fish are discarded for a variety of reasons: they can be species which are not included in the boat’s quota, stocks which exceed a quota, too small, or simply from a species with low commercial value. In March the EU’s fisheries commissioner, Maria Damanaki, began steps to end the practice of discarding , calling for reforms to quota systems to ensure this happened by the start of 2013. The issue was highlighted in the UK by a high-profile campaign and accompanying TV series by the chef Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall , something Damanaki cited as a key factor in her decision. However, fishing lobby groups have objected strongly to the plan , arguing that already precarious livelihoods will be made untenable if crews are obliged to land large quantities of unpopular, low-value species. A revised EU common fisheries policy (CFP) , unveiled early in July, said discarding would be phased out, with fishing boats obliged to land all stocks of commercial fish they catch, although they will still not be able to sell undersized examples. The reforms are intended to provide an incentive for trawlers to invest in more selective fishing gear. The NEF argues that a full discard ban will be good news for the fishing industry, citing a study published last month by academics at the University of York which found a discard ban by Norway, a non-EU member, during the late 1980s saw reduced profitability for just four years with Norwegian cod fisheries now among the most lucrative in the world. Rupert Crilly, an environmental economics researcher at NEF, and the author of Money Overboard, said that for all the potential benefits of an EU discard ban it was only part of a wider issue, mainly connected to general overfishing. “There needs to be a much more fundamental reform of the CFP, rather than just saying discards need to be banned. It’s a little bit too simplistic. What we’re saying in this report is: this is the value of what we’ve been throwing away, it’s enormous and it needs to stop, but it’s not the only things that needs to change,” he said. It was vital for EU quotas to be set by scientists rather than politicians, and for the approach to be based around the effects on the whole ocean ecosystem rather than on a species-by-species basis. “What we’re arguing is that we need quotas set according to scientific limits. “In the end this would be good news for the economy, the people who own the resource, which is everybody, and the fishing industry itself, which completes depends on stocks being at their best.” Fishing Food European Union Conservation Marine life Food security Wildlife Oceans Europe Peter Walker guardian.co.uk

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Raw Video: 9 Dead in Russian Boat Accident

An overloaded motor boat crashed into a docked barge on the Moscow River in Russia in pre-dawn darkness on Sunday, killing nine of the 16 people on board, officials said. The other seven passengers swam to safety or were rescued. (July 31)

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Clashes between rival factions of the Libyan rebels killed four people today in the opposition stronghold of Benghazi, deepening the worst crisis so far for the movement after its chief military commander was killed , possibly by fighters from his own side. One group of rebels overran the base of another…

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There’s an outcry coming from Progressives at this point, including myself and any way you look at it, John Boehner will need Democratic votes to get something done in the HOUSE. Rep. Raul Grijalva, co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, today released the following statement on the emerging debt deal via email: “This deal trades peoples’ livelihoods for the votes of a few unappeasable right-wing radicals, and I will not support it. Progressives have been organizing for months to oppose any scheme that cuts Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security, and it now seems clear that even these bedrock pillars of the American success story are on the chopping block. Even if this deal were not as bad as it is, this would be enough for me to fight against its passage. This deal does not even attempt to strike a balance between more cuts for the working people of America and a fairer contribution from millionaires and corporations. The very wealthy will continue to receive taxpayer handouts, and corporations will keep their expensive federal giveaways. Meanwhile, millions of families unfairly lose more in this deal than they have already lost . I will not be a part of it. Republicans have succeeded in imposing their vision of a country without real economic hope. Their message has no public appeal, and Democrats have had every opportunity to stand firm in the face of their irrational demands. Progressives have been rallying support for the successful government programs that have meant health and economic security to generations of our people. Today we, and everyone we have worked to speak for and fight for, were thrown under the bus. We have made our bottom line clear for months: a final deal must strike a balance between cuts and revenue, and must not put all the burden on the working people of this country. This deal fails those tests and many more. The Democratic Party, no less than the Republican Party, is at a very serious crossroads at this moment. For decades Democrats have stood for a capable, meaningful government – a government that works for the people, not just the powerful, and that represents everyone fairly and equally. This deal weakens the Democratic Party as badly as it weakens the country. We have given much and received nothing in return. The lesson today is that Republicans can hold their breath long enough to get what they want. While I believe the country will not reward them for this in the long run, the damage has already been done. A clean debt ceiling vote was the obvious way out of this, and many House Democrats have been saying so. Had that vote failed, the president should have exercised his Fourteenth Amendment responsibilities and ended this manufactured crisis. This deal is a cure as bad as the disease. I reject it, and the American people reject it. The only thing left to do now is repair the damage as soon as possible.” Move On: “We urge the White House and all in Congress to keep negotiating for a deal that protects Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid and asks millionaires to pay their fair share,” UPDATE I: Dick Durbin agrees with me and says that this debt ceiling vote is killing Keynesian economics. UPDATE II: Sam Stein: Harry Reid Tentatively Signs Off On Debt Ceiling Deal UPDATE III: CNN’s Money says that spending cuts now are not good for the economy: NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — If the debt ceiling goes up, government spending is most likely going down. And with the economy grinding to a halt, the timing couldn’t be worse… read on UPDATE IV: Greg Sargent is shrill. UPDATE V : And as I figured, Boehner’s trying to reduce defense spending cuts in the deal : House Speaker John A. Boehner was attempting to scale back the $350 billion in immediate Pentagon cuts that would be included in the initial $1 trillion in spending cuts. Democrats said Mr. Boehner was also trying to minimize the amount of automatic cuts to defense spending that would occur if a special congressional committee was unable to reach a broader agreement later this year.

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Another big NFL deal : Plaxico Burress, who served nearly two years in prison for possessing (and shooting himself with ) an unlicensed gun, has agreed to a one-year deal with the Jets, the team announced today. Burress used to play on New York’s other team—the Giants, with whom he…

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Prince Harry: Comic-Book Hero? Graphic Novel to Hit Stands in August

After Pippa Middleton got her own television special, the younger sibling of the other half of the royal couple is getting some attention in print. In honor of the “Wild Child,” as publisher Bluewater Productions calls Prince Harry, the comic book will be accompanied by a special collector’s graphic novel edition as well. The book

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The end of Congress’ tortured debt ceiling machinations isn’t here yet, but it’s in sight, says top Democratic negotiator Chuck Schumer, while adding that “It’s premature to talk about any specifics.” Schumer emphasized to State of the Union that the deal will be politically difficult to sell to his party,…

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Debt Ceiling Deadline Looms, Default At Stake (LATEST UPDATES)

WASHINGTON — White House and congressional negotiators sought on Sunday to reassure the nation that they would beat a Tuesday deadline for averting a federal default. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said negotiators were “very close” to sealing a deal that would cut spending by some $3 trillion over the next decade while raising the debt ceiling through 2013 in a two-stage process. The Treasury says it will not be able to meet all its debt obligations if Congress does not act by Tuesday. Details of a possible accord began emerging Saturday night after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said on the Senate floor that the two sides were trying to nail down loose ends and complete an agreement. “I’m glad to see this move toward cooperation and compromise, and hope it bears fruit,” he said. A Democratic official said on Sunday that while bargainers were not on the cusp of a deal, one could gel quickly. A Republican said there was consensus on general concepts but cautioned there were no guarantees of a final handshake. Both spoke on condition of anonymity. Any pact would have to quickly pass both chambers of Congress after a rancorous period that has seen the two parties repeatedly belittle each other’s efforts to end the standoff. Check back here for the latest developments.

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