UK GDP figures released – live coverage

At 9.30am we will learn how well the UK economy performed in the second quarter of this year 8.44am: There’s plenty of coverage of the GDP release in today’s papers. The Financial Times (registration) says that the coalition government is braced for stagnant growth, which could add fuel to Vince Cable’s call for another round of quantitative easing. “If the average forecast is correct, it will mean Britain’s economy has grown by only 0.2 per cent in the past nine months, a pace so slow it may feel to many like a recession.” The Daily Telegraph has warned that weak UK growth would put the country’s AAA rating at risk. “Moody’s said in March: “We believe that slower growth combined with weaker-than-expected fiscal consolidation could cause the UK’s debt metrics to deteriorate to a point that would be inconsistent with a triple-A rating.” Growth has slowed sharply since then. At that point, the OBR had expected expansion by 0.6pc over the nine months to June. It is now forecast to have managed just 0.2pc. Similarly, Standard & Poor’s reaffirmed the UK’s rating in December on the assumption that growth this year would be 2pc. The consensus is currently just 1.5pc.” The Daily Mail argues that weak growth, or worse, would raised doubts over the timing and size of the Chancellor’s £81billion package of spending cuts, and his VAT hike from 17.5 to 20 per cent. 8.30am: Britain would not officially be back in recession if GDP shrank during the last three months, but it would raise fears of a dreaded “double dip”. As this graph shows, the UK plunged into recession in 2008, and emerged in the last three months of 2009. It then suffered a sharp contraction in the final quarter of 2010, shrinking by 0.5% – which was blamed on the particularly bad weather last winter. The country returned to growth between January and March , but the 0.5% expansion did no more than recover the output lost in the snow. A recession, according to the definition used in Europe, is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. 8.15am: The GDP figures will be announced at the Church House Conference Centre, over in Westminster.. Here’s the schedule: 9.25am : informal welcome to the briefing 9.30am : ONS Chief Economist Joe Grice will announce the 2nd Quarter 2011 Preliminary Estimate for GDP 9.31am : ONS press officers will distribute hard copies of the GDP bulletin to attending journalists 9.33am : Joe Grice and a senior statistician will answer questions from the floor from attending journalists 10am : Joe Grice and a senior statistician will be available for one-to-one broadcast/ print interviews. So, a fairly brief event – but one that will probably dominate the domestic news agenda today. 8.10am: Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of the announcement of the preliminary estimate of UK GDP for the second quarter of 2011. Put another way, it’s the moment when we find out how well the British economy performed in the last three months. Most economists believe we will only see weak growth, with the City consensus being an expansion of around 0.2%. Some are more confident – pencilling in growth of as much as 0.7%. But others are much gloomier – fearing that the UK economy could have contracted. The Office for National Statistics will release the data at 9.30am. My colleagues Larry Elliott and Julia Kollewe will be reporting from the Office of National Statistics briefing, and I’ll bring you all the reaction from the City and Westminster. Economic growth (GDP) Economics Economic policy George Osborne Ed Balls Graeme Wearden guardian.co.uk

Posted by on July 26, 2011. Filed under News, Politics, World News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.