Thai exit polls signal redshirt landslide

General election victory for Puea Thai party would mark spectacular comeback for fugitive tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra Thailand’s Puea Thai opposition party is poised for a landslide victory in Sunday’s general election, according to exit polls. If correct they mark a spectacular comeback for Thaksin Shinawatra, toppled as the country’s leader by a military coup in 2006. The party is led by his youngest sister Yingluck – who would be the country’s first female prime minister – but is his in all but name. He lives in exile in Dubai, due to a conviction for abuse of power. The electoral commission is expected to release unofficial results later this evening. Political experts say that exit polls are unreliable but today’s indicate a clear majority for Puea Thai. Analysts have warned that the election could lead to further turmoil in Thailand after six years of intense political conflict. Last year more than 90 people died in clashes as the military cracked down on Thaksin-supporting redshirt protesters in the centre of the capital. Redshirt leaders have warned they will take to the streets again if the 44-year-old Yingluck wins the vote but does not become prime minister. They have said they fear that opponents could attempt to mount a legal challenge against her, or even another coup. Britain was among the countries warning its nationals of potential violence, urging visitors to avoid demonstrations. Thaksin, a billionaire ex-telecoms tycoon, is a polarising figure in Thailand. The rural poor regard him as a champion but urban elites condemn him as corrupt and autocratic. Yingluck said her brother had phoned her to congratulate and encourage her, Reuters reported. She added: “He told me that there is still much hard work ahead of us.” Puea Thai leaders have repeatedly indicated they plan an amnesty allowing Thaksin to return to Thailand without having to serve a jail sentence, though his sister claimed it was not a priority and that such a policy would not be aimed at helping one person. In a telephone interview, Thaksin told the Thai PBS television station: “I have wanted to come back since yesterday, but I do not want to create problems.” The party is well aware that such a move could galvanise its opponents into taking action against them. A spokesman for the incumbent Democrat party said: “Let’s wait for the official results before we can comment. But let’s be assured that everyone will respect the poll results.” Prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva refused to comment as he arrived at the party headquarters. Puea Thai was on course to gain 313 of the 500 parliamentary seats, according to a poll by Bangkok’s Suan Dusit University, with the Democrats trailing with just 152. A Sri Pathum University exit poll gave Puea Thai 299 seats to the Democrats’ 132. Exit polls in Thailand are considered unreliable. But political analyst Chris Baker said: “If it’s that high [313 seats] for Puea Thai I think you can safely say they are going to win a pretty smacking victory. What has tended to happen in the past is that the exit polls have tended to be fairly conservative.” Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak said that a margin of 80 to 100 seats should give Puea Thai an unassailable victory. If they won over 250 seats it would be a clear mandate, while more than 280 seats could be considered a landslide. “If they win at all it’s a big statement,” he added. “[It means] the ideas and policies that made [Thaksin's] original Thai Rak Thai party so electable are unstoppable and indestructible … This is a party that has been dissolved twice; its leading politicians have been banned twice; it’s being led by a deposed exile and former prime minister a six-hour flight away.” He said that a landslide would be “not just any landslide – it would mean we have a truly new country. Whether people accept that will determine how much pain and grief we have to go through.” The forecasts were released as polls closed at 3pm on Sunday. Police said more than 170,000 officers were on duty throughout the country to monitor voting by 47 million eligible Thais. Puea Thai commanded a clear lead in polls during the campaign, but analysts have warned an inconclusive result could lead to a lengthy period of horse-trading with minor parties attempting to cut deals with either side. Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra Tania Branigan guardian.co.uk

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