Murky world of Somalia’s Islamist insurgents | Mark Tran

Some of the Islamist al-Shabaab group denies a famine is taking place in Somalia and are trying to stop people fleeing the areas it controls An appeal by a senior UN official, Augustine Mahiga, for all Somalis inside and outside the country to work together in the face of a growing famine is unlikely to cut much ice with hardline elements of al-Shabaab, the Islamist insurgents. A report by Associated Press from Mogadishu provides a grim picture of how some militants are dealing with those trying to flee areas under their control, which also happened to be the first regions declared to be in famine by the UN last month. Al-Shabaab deserters, some of whom are child soldiers, described how the militants are trying to stop people from leaving. Some men are being killed or are told that their women and children will be killed if they leave. Some members of al-Shabaab deny a famine is taking place, and fear that if people leave its strongholds in southern Somalia, its pool of conscripts and informal tax base will shrink. Yet UN experts believe that while hardliners within al-Shabaab reject dialogue and compromise, other elements appear to be pragmatic and ready for political engagement. In a report in March, a UN monitoring group on Somalia (pdf) described al-Shabaab as an umbrella for jihadists, clan militias, business interests and foreign fighters. Founded by former members of al-Iltihad al-Islami, a militant group active between 1991 and 1997, al-Shabaab came to public notice when it desecrated a former Italian cemetery in Mogadishu, the Somali capital, in 2005 and established a base there. It became the militant wing of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), which briefly established a modicum of stability until driven out by Ethiopian forces in 2007. Since then, al-Shabaab has been waging a campaign against the weak transitional federal government, which relies on a small African Union force, Amisom, rather than its own forces, which are racked by infighting, to keep it in power. It is within this volatile mix that aid agencies have to operate to deal with a famine that has now spread to five areas of Somalia , with al-Shabaab representing the most severe challenge. The group consists of a core force of fewer than 2,500 Somalis and several hundred foreign fighters, backed by a large number of local clan militias that are not readily available for operations outside their home areas, and irregular fighters who are paid for specific operations. Its key figures are Ahmed Abdi aw Mohamud “Godane”, also known as Mukhtar Abdirahman abu Zubeyr, the group’s supreme leader, Ibrahim Haji Jama Mee’aad “al-Afghani”, the regional governor of Kismayo, and Ali Mohamud Raghe also known as Ali Dheere, the group’s spokesman. Despite its small number, al-Shabaab’s forces are nimble and can be concentrated across long distances at short notice. In August last year, it launched its “Ramadan” offensive involving 2,500 to 5,000 fighters with the goal of capturing the presidential compound in Mogadishu. The offensive included a suicide attack on the Muna hotel, killing more than 30 people. Al-Shabaab forces were eventually repulsed with the help of 2,000 Ugandan troops, and UN experts believe that the group faltered because of its over-reliance on child soldiers, who could not stand up to sustained attacks from professional armed forces. Despite the military deadlock before the famine, and signs of divisions within al-Shabaab, the group is in rude financial health, amassing between $70m and $100m a year through duties and fees levied at airports and seaports, taxes on goods and services, and taxes in kind on domestic produce, according to the UN report. The UN monitoring group says al-Shabaab’s tax system is far more sophisticated and comprehensive than that of any other Somali authority. The group’s most important source of revenue comes from its control of the port of Kismayo, which with the ports of Marka and Baraawe generates between $35m and $50m a year. Al-Shabaab also receives financial support from Eritrea, which considers the transitional federal government a stooge of Ethiopia, its implacable foe. A worrying development for Somali’s neighbours is al-Shabaab’s growing influence in the region. In July last year, it mounted co-ordinated suicide bombings in Kampala, the Ugandan capital, killing 79 people, a move seen as retaliation for the presence of Ugandan troops in Somalia. The UN monitoring group also describes networks in Kenya linked to al-Shabaab that recruit and raise money for the insurgency. At first these networks were to be found among the ethnic Somali community, but these have broadened since 2009 to include other Kenyans. Famine Malnutrition Somalia Africa Mark Tran guardian.co.uk

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