Tourism loses at least $1bn as one million visitors flee anti-Mubarak protests Egypt’s vice-president, Omar Suleiman has warned protesters that rioting is chasing away foreign tourists and investors who are vital for the country’s economy. He said Egypt had lost at least $1bn in tourism in the past nine days and that a million tourists had left during the turmoil. Tui Travel, Europe’s biggest travel company, warned that the unrest in Egypt and Tunisia would cost it up to £30m as customers cancelled or rescheduled holidays. Tui has cancelled all holiday bookings for Egypt from Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Scandinavia, but is still running holidays booked in the UK for Red Sea resorts such as Sharm el-Sheikh “in line with government advice”. This means that, at present, UK customers will not get a refund if they cancel their trip. “If we are not able to operate any further holidays to Egypt for the rest of the winter from any source market except for the UK, we estimate the second-quarter impact will be approximately £20m. If UK government advice changes and we can no longer operate from that source market we would expect the impact to increase by approximately £5m,” Tui said. Repatriating customers from Tunisia and cancellation of holidays to the country has cost Tui another £5m. Egypt’s revenues are driven by tourism, which are thought to bring in about £7bn a year. Taxes on ships using the Suez canal generated £6bn in the last financial year. But Egypt still ran a current account deficit of £505m in the third quarter of 2010 and had to borrow to cover the difference. Analysts at ratings agency Fitch, which downgraded Egypt today to BB, warned of further downgrades. Many western businesses have shut their operations and pulled out senior staff. The agency said a lack of trade and tourism, which accounts for 11% of GDP, would send tax revenues into a downward spiral, making the budget deficit worse. The stock market remained closed. The country’s ports have seen much of their business move to Malta, Israel and other Mediterranean destinations as Egypt’s docks remain largely shut down. The Suez canal, which carries about 8% of global sea trade, has stayed open despite the chaos, with armed guards protecting the waterway that links the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, but ships have avoided Port Said and Alexandria. Egypt Middle East Protest Travel & leisure Julia Kollewe Phillip Inman guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …Dean Baker On The Great (Failed) UK Austerity Experiment, And The Lesson For The U.S.
February 3, 2011 No CommentProgressive economist Dean Baker says as predicted, the UK austerity program looks very much like a path to pain and stagnation , not healthy growth, and hopes our leadership wakes up in time before they end up in the same situation: The elite media and the politicians whom they promote would love to see the United States follow the austerity path of the UK’s new government. However, if this path takes the UK into dangerous economic waters, it could provide a powerful warning to the public in the United States before we make the same mistake. The British economy looks like it is doing its part. The fourth-quarter GDP report showing that the economy went into reverse and shrank at a 2.0% annual rate is exactly the sort of warning that many of us here were expecting. Weather-related factors may have slowed growth some, but you would have to do some serious violence to the data to paint a positive picture. Of course, the austerity in the UK is just beginning. There will likely be much worse pain to come, with a real possibility that the country will experience a double-dip recession, or at least a prolonged period of stagnation. While the UK seems to be doing its part, the key question is whether anyone in the United States is prepared to take the lesson. Prior to this episode, there was already a solid economic case that large public deficits were necessary to support the economy in the period following the collapse of an asset bubble. The point is simply that the private sector is not prepared to make up the demand gap, at least in the short term . Both short-term and long-term interest rates are pretty much as low as they can be. Furthermore, even if weaker demand did manage to push interest rates down from current levels, it is unlikely that they would have much effect on private spending. Businesses that didn’t want to invest when the 10-year treasury bond rate was 3.4% are unlikely to start expanding if the rate fell to 2.4%, especially if the lower rate is coupled with higher unemployment and weaker demand. The same story applies to consumers. This sort of drop in interest rates is not about to kick off a consumption binge. Consumers remain heavily indebted as a result of the collapse of the housing bubble. Lower interest rates will change this picture little. Furthermore, a consumption splurge is even less likely if government cutbacks mean that more workers are unemployed or worried about losing their jobs . There might be more hope from an increase in net exports following a turn to austerity, but this would depend on a decline in the value of the dollar and healthy growth in US trading partners. Neither of these seems like good bets at the moment. This means that the predictable result of austerity is slower growth and higher unemployment. The UK has volunteered to be our guinea pig and test this proposition. For now, it looks like things are going just as standard economic theory predicts: the economy is slowing and unemployment is likely to rise. Hopefully, citizens of the UK will tire of the rhetoric of austerity as a way to make politicians feel good about tightening other peoples’ belts. Maybe the Liberal Democrats will break away from the coalition and force new elections. From this side of the pond, though, the goal is simply to encourage people to pay attention. The UK might be home to 60 million people, but from the standpoint of US economic policy, it is simply exhibit A: it is the country that did what our deficit hawks want to do in the US.
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• Mubarak: ‘If I resign today there will be chaos’ • 10 dead and hundreds injured in fresh crackdown • Journalists arrested and attacked by pro-Mubaraks The Egyptian regime dug in today, defying international pressure to begin an immediate transfer of power while launching attacks on journalists and human rights observers. Egypt’s vice-president Omar Suleiman offered political concessions, inviting the long-banned Muslim Brotherhood to a dialogue. However, the Islamist movement and other opposition parties have refused to talk until President Hosni Mubarak steps down. Mubarak told America’s ABC News tonight: “I am fed up. After 62 years in public service I have had enough. I want to go.” But he added he could not step down immediately for fear that the country would sink into chaos. He said he had told Barack Obama: “You don’t understand the Egyptian culture and what would happen if I step down now.” The government’s readiness to negotiate, following Mubarak’s own promise not to run for re-election in September, also failed to stem the pressure for faster and more radical change from anti-government protesters on the streets of Egypt’s cities and from other world leaders. Ten people were reported dead and 800 injured yesterday at the focal point of the struggle, Tahrir Square, in Cairo, after the president’s supporters mounted attacks on the crowd of protesters. The army made sporadic attempts to separate the two sides , swivelling the gun turrets of their tanks in an effort to disperse the skirmishing groups and pushing pro-Mubarak groups off a bridge over Tahrir Square, but the troops did not intervene decisively to stop the violence. Clashes with stones, petrol bombs and occasional gunshots continued throughout the day. Meanwhile, pro-government mobs tracked down and beat Egyptian and international television crews and reporters, forcing their vehicles off the roads and besieging their bureaux and hotels. The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists said correspondents from CNN, Associated Press, and al-Arabiya television were among those attacked. The Qatar-based al-Jazeera, which has been ordered to cease broadcasting from Egypt, said three of its reporters had been arrested and one was missing. Dozens more journalists were detained. “The Egyptian government is employing a strategy of eliminating witnesses to their actions,” said Mohamed Abdel Dayem, the regional coordinator of the Campaign to Protect Journalists, reflecting fears that the crack-down presaged an all-out attack on the protesters. The US administration also denounced what it described as “systematic targeting” of the media. The US state department spokesman, PJ Crowley, said: “There is a concerted campaign to intimidate international journalists in Cairo and interfere with their reporting. We condemn such actions.” Egyptian and international human rights workers were also detained when police raided a law centre in Cairo. Staff from Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch were among those picked up and the organisations said their whereabouts was unknown. The government combined the crack-down with political concession aimed at drawing the sting from the revolt. The prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, acknowledged that the attacks on anti-government protesters “seemed to have been organised”, and he promised an investigation into who was behind them. Suleiman, the intelligence chief and newly-appointed vice-president, said Mubarak’s son, Gamal, would not stand for the presidency this year, as had previously been expected. He added that he had invited the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been banned throughout Mubarak’s 30-year reign, to join a dialogue on Egypt’s future. But he said the group had been “hesitant” to take part. The Muslim Brotherhood and most of the secular opposition are demanding Mubarak’s resignation as a precondition for negotiations. The vice-president repeatedly insisted any political changes would take time and could not be rushed. It would take 70 days to explore possible constitutional amendments, Suleiman said. However, a chorus of foreign leaders maintained calls for more immediate and profound reform. David Cameron issued a joint statement with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Spain saying: “Only a quick and orderly transition to a broad-based government will make it possible to overcome the challenges Egypt is now facing. That transition process must start now.” The European leaders were echoing Obama’s call for change to begin at once, but like him stopped short of calling directly for Mubarak’s immediate resignation. The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, went further. Speaking to journalists in London, he said: “President Mubarak’s announcement that he will stay until the end of his term and will not run for re-election – I’m not sure that will satisfy the demands of his people. If there is a need for change, it should happen now.” Egypt Protest Middle East Hosni Mubarak Julian Borger Harriet Sherwood Peter Beaumont Jack Shenker guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …Time Reporter Lindenberger Misinterprets Scope of Florida Federal Judge’s Ruling on ObamaCare
February 3, 2011 No Comment
“If the majority [of the U.S. Supreme Court] agrees with [Judge Roger] Vinson, President Obama would find not only his health care bill undone, but also face the most significant scaling back of the government's power to use legislation to solve its problems in decades,” Time's Michael Lindenberger warned in a February 2 post at the magazine's website. To reach such a conclusion, however, Lindenberger must have misunderstood Vinson's ruling on Monday in State of Florida v. U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services , which sought not to “turn back the clock” on commerce clause interpretation but merely prevent its overextension into an unprecedented and dangerous arena: forcing Americans to buy private health insurance under the flimsy illogic that such economic inactivity actually amounts to commercial activity. “I am required to interpret this law as the Supreme Court presently defines it. Only the Supreme Court can redefine or expand it further,” Vinson noted on page 43 of his 78 page opinion. The Reagan appointee noted that no less legislative authorities than the Congressional Research Service and the Congressional Budget Office have found Congress requiring Americans to purchase private health insurance under penalty of law to be “novel” and “unprecedented” “To now hold that Congres may regulate the so-called 'economic decision' to not purchase a product or service in anticipation of future consumption is a 'bridge too far.' It is without logical limitation and far exceeds the existing legal boundaries established by Supreme Court precedent,” Vinson argued. So, it logically follows, for the Roberts Court to “agree with Vinson” would be to ratify his understanding of the Constitution and existing case law and to clarify that Congress punishing Americans for choosing NOT to engage in commerce is a “bridge too far” to be justified by grounding it in the Constitution's commerce clause. While it's true that the conservative majority on the Roberts Court could avail itself the opportunity to revise or overturn commerce clause precendents that already vex conservatives, it need not do so in order to invalidate ObamaCare. What's more, given Chief Justice Roberts'
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enlarge While pro-democracy protesters in Egypt are fighting it out in the streets against armed government thugs, there’s another battle taking place in the court of public opinion. For those with a bent toward assuming everything this country does is evil and the same regardless of administration, President Obama has not done enough to support the pro-democracy forces. But as today’s Wikileaks document release shows, the Obama administration’s approach to diplomacy and human rights is completely different than the Bush administration. Of course, you should always take these cables with a grain of salt, since they represent the point of view of the writer, but they’re still enlightening. In 2004, Yemen’s President Saleh reached out to President Bush via diplomatic channels. This was shortly after Bush’s re-election in 2004, the Iraq war was raging away, Afghanistan was languishing, and the term “Islamic extremists” was on the tip of everyone’s tongue. From Embassy Sanaa, December 6, 2004 : President Saleh emphasized his desire to be among the first foreign leaders to personally congratulate President Bush on his reelection, and said he needed to meet with Secretary of State designate Dr. Rice and other newly appointed senior officials to raise new regional developments that can only be discussed “face to face.” True to form, Saleh launched into a list of what he believes the U.S. owes him. “Where is the money for the Army, and what about my spare (F-5) parts?” Saleh demanded. Ambassador promise to follow up on this matter. (Note: OMC reports difficulties in getting MOD to follow through with the necessary paperwork on parts and equipment in order to spend the 17 million USD in Yemen’s FMF account. End Note.) You might wonder why Yemen’s president felt as though he could be so petulant and demanding? I certainly did. The answer seems to be farther down in the cable. Saleh raised the 28 security detainees, meant to be released in the Ramadan amnesty, who the ROYG has agreed to continue to hold based on USG objections. Saleh told Ambassador that the 28 were arrested under suspicion of AQ membership, having returned to Yemen from Saudi Arabia or Afghanistan, but that after investigation there was no evidence they were involved in terrorist acts. “We are waiting for information from you,” said Saleh. Ambassador replied that we had already provided all the information currently available. The problem, said Ambassador, is continued ROYG refusal to exchange information. Ambassador reiterated that we have asked repeatedly for the evidence that led the ROYG to conclude these 28 should be released. Surely there must be case files, transcripts of interviews, investigation notes, pressed Ambassador, yet the ROYG maintains it has no information on these suspects. There’s more in there about grey market weapons transactions and the like, but these exchanges seem key. Clearly the Bush administration was trading aid, military funding, and weapons for Yemeni agreement to hold hostages on trumped-up, unprovable charges. Dateline, Cairo: January 6, 2010 In a scenesetter document written in advance of Assistant Secretary of State Michael Posner’s visit, an entirely different focus. Here are a few key snippets: U.S. funding supports civil society efforts to train candidates and domestic monitors, educate voters and provide technical assistance to the GOE in administering the elections. However, the GOE remains skeptical of our role in democracy promotion, contending that any efforts to open up will result in empowering the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), which currently holds 86 seats in Egypt’s 454-seat parliament. Widespread arrests and internal dissent have weakened the MB and its electoral chances, but many still see it as the only alternative to the current regime and a weak secular opposition. We have urged the GOE to expand the space provided to political actors, including allowing for the registration of new parties. GOE-sanctioned harassment of political activists continues. The most high-profile has been a decision by the GOE to deny Ayman Nour an exit visa to travel to Washington. Now I am not arguing that all US funding supports election efforts. But I am saying that it’s far too simplistic to simply say “Bah! The US supports the military and therefore is completely responsible for Mubarak’s recalcitrance.” Clearly US funding supports more than the military, so calling for that spigot to close may not be wise. Also, the keepers of the purse in the US are the Congress, not the President…but that’s another topic for a different post. Further on in the same cable, this: Since May 2009, we have asked the government to take several steps forward, including: Lift the State of Emergency, and replace it with a counterterrorism law guaranteeing civil liberties. Release detained bloggers. Facilitate monitoring for the 2010 and 2011 elections. Register the U.S. NGOs operating in Egypt: NDI, IRI and IFES. Publicly endorse the quasi-governmental National Council for Human Rights’ (NCHR) May 2009 recommendations, which include lifting the State of Emergency, addressing sectarian tensions, abolishing prison sentences for journalists, and passing legislation to combat torture more effectively. Pass uniform places of worship legislation to allow Christians to worship freely, and redress discrimination. Issue ID cards for Bahai’is. Not quite the warmongering government of the past, is it? Seems to me these requests fall right into line with what the pro-democracy protesters are after. Oh, here’s something else our aid money funds: While the GOE and its supporters claim that police brutality is unusual, human rights lawyers believe it continues to be a pervasive, daily occurrence in prisons, police stations and Interior Ministry State Security (SSIS) headquarters (ref D). Activists assert that the police and SSIS have adapted to increased media and blogger focus on police brutality by hiding the abuse and pressuring victims not to bring cases. Human rights lawyers believe the GOE should reduce pressure on officers to solve cases immediately, allow suspects to be accompanied by an attorney during questioning in police detention, and amend the laws to increase the penalties for brutality. We expect USG-funded human rights-oriented police training will resume in late January. Draft legislation increasing penalties for police brutality and broadening the definition of torture has languished in the Ministry of Justice. And this, which is not aid-related but certainly appears to be a topic of deep concern to the State Department: Prominent democracy activist XXXXXXXXXXXXXX (XXXXXXXXXXXX) remains in self-imposed exile in the United States following a June 2007 civil suit accusing him of committing “espionage” by urging President Bush to condition aid to Egypt. In May 2009, an appeals court reversed an August 2008 civil ruling against XXXXXXXXXXXXXX for “tarnishing Egypt’s image abroad” in a suit filed by an NDP activist, and overturned the two-year prison sentence and fine (ref F). The appeals court also ruled that the five to six pending civil lawsuits against XXXXXXXXXXXXX on similar grounds be referred to the Prosecutor General (attorney-general equivalent) for investigation. The Public Prosecutor referred a separate criminal case against XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX for investigation in January 2009 for allegedly committing “espionage” by asserting in newspaper articles that he had convinced President Bush to withhold aid because of lack of progress on democratic reform. The United States has had some rotten foreign policy, but I’m not seeing it in play in Egypt. What I am seeing, and what may make other regional leaders nervous, is an active push toward diplomatic solutions to flagrant human rights violations, and allocation of US dollars toward correcting those wrongs, which is a radical departure from the previous administration.
Continue reading …It is a risk, and could destabilise the country and the region, but who are Mubarak or the west to deny it to them? I blame the fall of the Berlin Wall. I’m not one of those weirdos who mourns the collapse of communism. It’s just that, in retrospect, the problem with the events of 1989 is that they happened so easily. The wall fell in a weekend, then Hungary followed, then Romania, and eventually even the Soviet Union itself. And all, amazingly, without almost anyone, the odious Ceausescus notable exceptions, getting hurt. In reality it was rather more messy, of course. Yet the speed and totality with which the communist system crumpled in Europe were spectacular. The 1989 collapse has framed a lot of expectations whenever any subsequent despot or military regime is challenged in the streets. We have come to expect revolutions to be quick, successful and peaceful. We seem to have forgotten what most revolutionaries of earlier eras took for granted – that their fate is as likely to be defeat, and even death, as victory. Most of the time, despots don’t fold – they fight back. Sometimes very effectively. See Burma. See Belarus. See Zimbabwe. And, for the past couple of days in Cairo, see Egypt. It’s a mistake to assume all dictators are isolated tinpot tyrants who will obligingly decamp to the French Riviera with their ill-gotten gains at the first stirrings of trouble or as soon as John Simpson has positioned himself outside the presidential palace to see history made. As often as not, threatened despots summon the army and the secret police, and manoeuvre and terrorise their challengers into submission. That is plainly part of what Hosni Mubarak and some of those around him are trying to achieve in Egypt. Mubarak may be a wounded beast, but he is still a big beast, and still – in some diminishing ways – a strong one. For 30 years he has sat atop a pyramid of Egyptian power whose interests are almost as much opposed to radical change as his own are. Whether his allies and battalions have the common purpose to maintain their own power when he finally steps down is difficult to predict. They certainly have an interest in such an outcome. And they are still trying today, making further strategic concessions while attacking protesters in the cities. Anything is possible. But that’s the point. This is not a done deal. Nevertheless, it is clear what ought to
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Messages urged ‘honest and loyal men to confront the traitors and criminals’ Vodafone has claimed the Egyptian authorities forced it to send pro-government text messages during this week’s protests. Twitter has been buzzing with screen grabs from Vodafone’s Egyptian customers showing text messages sent over the course of the demonstrations against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year-old regime. A text message received on Sunday by an Associated Press reporter in Egypt appealed to the country’s “honest and loyal men to confront the traitors and criminals and protect our people and honour”. Another urged Egyptians to attend a pro-Mubarak rally in Cairo on Wednesday. The first was marked as coming from “Vodafone”. The other was signed: “Egypt Lovers.” Vodafone said the messages had been drafted by Egyptian authorities and that it had no power to change them. “Vodafone Group has protested to the authorities that the current situation regarding these messages is unacceptable. We have made clear that all messages should be transparent and clearly attributable to the originator.” The company said its competitors – including Egypt’s Mobinil and the United Arab Emirates’ Etisalat – were doing the same. Vodafone said the texts had been sent “since the start of the protests” but declined to reveal how many such messages it had sent or whether it was still putting them out. Vodafone is already under fire for its role in the internet blackout that cut Egyptian users off for several days. It said the order could not be ignored as it was binding under local law. Egypt Middle East Vodafone Protest Censorship guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …For Second Day in a Row, Mitchell Pitches for Gun Control: ‘Somebody’s Got to Listen in Washington’
February 3, 2011 No Comment
Andrea Mitchell, for a second day in a row , pushed for more gun control on her MSNBC show as she encouraged Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, “You and Mike Bloomberg…have all been yelling and screaming,” about more restrictive anti-gun measures, “Somebody's got to listen in Washington.” Initially invited on Thursday's Andrea Mitchell Reports to discuss the Obama administration's push for more green jobs, Nutter wasn't allowed to finish the segment without Mitchell pressing him: “As a big city mayor, what are you saying to the White House about waiting for this gun control speech we keep hearing about?” On yesterday's show Mitchell expressed disappointment, to
Continue reading …Mubarak deputy insists president will not bow out before Egyptian elections
February 3, 2011 No Comment
Vice-president Omar Suleiman blames ‘foreign agendas’ for increased violence in Cairo’s Tahrir Square Omar Suleiman, Egypt’s vice-president, said today there was no chance of Hosni Mubarak stepping down before autumn elections, warning that stability must be maintained so that key constitutional changes can go ahead. In a combative appearance on state TV, Mubarak’s newly appointed deputy blamed “foreign agendas” for the violence of the last two days and pledged that those responsible would be held to account – ignoring ample evidence that paid thugs attacked pro-democracy demonstrators. Speaking on the eve of what protestors have dubbed “departure Friday”, the former intelligence chief appeared to resist attempts by the US and other western governments to persuade Mubarak to step down before the next election. “I blame some friendly countries for saying the wrong things,” he said. Mubarak’s long and loyal service to Egypt meant he should serve out his full term, Suleiman said. The vice-president spoke after holding the first session of a “national dialogue” with representatives of opposition movements to discuss a “road-map” and timetable for political reform. They agreed to form committees to look at constitutional change, the economy and law and order, but no decisions of substance were taken. The session was not attended by the powerful Muslim Brotherhood, which Suleiman said was “hesitating”, presumably because it opposes talks until Mubarak steps down. Western diplomats in Cairo said Suleiman and other leaders were digging in behind the embattled president. “They are rattled and under pressure but there is no sign of them giving up in the face of the criticism from foreign capitals,” one official said. “There is a sense of disconnect.” Suleiman said there was much to do in “less than 200 days”, highlighting calls to amend articles 76 and 77 of the constitution, which deal with limits to presidential terms and restrict the conditions for candidates to run for the presidency. Suleiman urged demonstrators in Cairo’s central Tahrir Square to end their 10-day protest, saying their reform demands have been answered. He said the army was on the streets to enforce a curfew, protect people against thugs and to make up for the police’s lack of capabilities to deal with the unrest. Samir Radwan, Egypt’s finance minister, said he would “never do anything to humiliate” Mubarak. Britain’s foreign secretary, William Hague, described the scenes of violence in Cairo as “reprehensible” and warned of the potential for further violence, saying that the world was watching the authorities’ response. “Their reputation will be severely damaged if we see violence at the levels we have seen recently,” he said. “The Egyptian people’s right to express their views in public freely must be defended. Today’s scenes underline further the imperative need for the Egyptian authorities urgently to commit to an orderly transition to a broader-based government that respects the legitimate aspirations of the Egyptian people.” Egypt Middle East Protest US foreign policy Ian Black guardian.co.uk
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Al Jazeera’s Joanna Gasiorowska talks to golf’s new world number two Martin Kaymer as they play together in the Pro-Am competition at the Qatar Masters. The number one spot is an achievable goal in Doha, but the German says that taking Lee Westwood’s crown is far from a priority. With Tiger Woods a fading star in the sport, Kaymer gives his tips for the top performers of 2011 as his Pro-Am partner does her best to make it onto his list.
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