NewsBreakingOnline

Barack Obama must accept the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to be part of Egypt’s post-Mubarak government When chaos in Cairo gives way to a resumption of government, the United States will face a crucial test. For three decades American policymakers have vilified the Islamic Republic of Iran. Likewise they have supported the oppression of Islamist parties and leaders by the likes of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. They must now bring themselves to accept the reality of an Egypt in which the Muslim Brotherhood plays an important role in government. The spectre of Iran overhangs the Egyptian crisis, the Iran of Ayatollah Khomeini’s bearded visage, frustrated street protests, nuclear ambition and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s denunciations of Israel. But this is the wrong Iran. The right comparison is with the Iran of 1979-1980, which saw Cairo-like street demonstrations topple a dictator and endorse a makeshift revolutionary government. And which saw the Carter administration invite the ailing shah and his family to seek refuge over here. No one today is suggesting that President Barack Obama should grant asylum to Mubarak and his family, much less bar a new Egyptian government from recovering assets it may think the ousted leader is absconding with. But imagine the outrage such an invitation would produce on the Egyptian street. The United States does not oppose the aspirations of the Egyptian people, but a single misstep could reverse this perception overnight. For three decades the United States has supported Mubarak, albeit while occasionally tut-tutting his heavy-handed rule. Now Egyptians want to know where America stands. So far, the administration’s pronouncements have lagged behind the unfolding events. The White House is not urging Mubarak to leave even though it is clear to everyone in the world that the Egyptian people want him gone. Washington’s reluctance to embrace a post-Mubarak Egypt reflects gratitude for his past support of American policies in the Middle East. But even more a fear that the Muslim Brotherhood will somehow emerge as the dominant force in a new Egypt. Yet it was precisely America’s decision to cushion the shah’s fall and defy popular demands that he be held responsible for his autocratic rule that led to the debacle of the Iranian hostage crisis . There is no way of knowing how Iranian-American relations would have developed if America’s diplomats had not been held prisoner for 444 days. But that highly dramatised rebuke of American policy was clearly the tipping point in America’s demonisation of the Islamic Republic, and vice versa. And it paved the way for America’s support, first tacit and later overt, for Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iran . The Obama administration needs to open its mind to the likelihood that the Muslim Brotherhood will be part of Egypt’s post-Mubarak government. The Brotherhood has long formed the primary opposition to Egypt’s dictatorship, and its members permeate Egyptian society from top to bottom. For them not to play a central role now would simply set the stage for continuing uncertainty, renewed oppression and future conflict. In Iran, ignorance of Islamist political forces led the United States to overestimate the secular leadership and overreact to the emergence of a religious leadership. In Egypt, the secular opposition, ill-formed and inexperienced, is being touted as the main hope for a transition to free elections. Yet free elections will certainly confer legitimacy on the Brotherhood and award them a substantial bloc of parliamentary seats. Carter-era policymakers knew little about Khomeini and the forces he represented. Analysts know a good deal more about the Muslim Brotherhood today. They know that it is not a stalking horse for al-Qaida and that it demands a pluralist democratic state rather than an Islamic Republic. The fear remains, however, that an Egyptian government responsive to Brotherhood pressure may turn its back on Egypt’s long-standing collaboration with Israel. This fear is not unrealistic, but the United States cannot afford to condition its acquiescence in a new Egyptian government on pledges of warm relations with Israel and opposition to Palestinian militancy. Israel and the United States will always be friends, but losing Egypt’s friendship would begin the unravelling of a half-century of American policy in the Middle East. Things may unravel nevertheless. The Arab world has been poised for a massive restructuring for decades. But apprehension about future uncertainty affords no basis for trying to sustain a crumbling status quo. The time has come to help Mubarak leave, persuade Egypt’s generals to allow a democratic civilian government to emerge and put our anxiety about the Muslim Brotherhood on hold. Regardless of American ideological preferences and our popular Islamophobia, Islamist political parties are destined to play a significant role in the transition to democracy in the Arab world. They deserve an opportunity to show how they can compete, and possibly govern, in a pluralistic electoral system. Obama should make this clear. • © 2011 Richard Bulliet – distributed by Agence Global Middle East Egypt Hosni Mubarak Islam Religion Richard Bulliet guardian.co.uk