It is a risk, and could destabilise the country and the region, but who are Mubarak or the west to deny it to them? I blame the fall of the Berlin Wall. I’m not one of those weirdos who mourns the collapse of communism. It’s just that, in retrospect, the problem with the events of 1989 is that they happened so easily. The wall fell in a weekend, then Hungary followed, then Romania, and eventually even the Soviet Union itself. And all, amazingly, without almost anyone, the odious Ceausescus notable exceptions, getting hurt. In reality it was rather more messy, of course. Yet the speed and totality with which the communist system crumpled in Europe were spectacular. The 1989 collapse has framed a lot of expectations whenever any subsequent despot or military regime is challenged in the streets. We have come to expect revolutions to be quick, successful and peaceful. We seem to have forgotten what most revolutionaries of earlier eras took for granted – that their fate is as likely to be defeat, and even death, as victory. Most of the time, despots don’t fold – they fight back. Sometimes very effectively. See Burma. See Belarus. See Zimbabwe. And, for the past couple of days in Cairo, see Egypt. It’s a mistake to assume all dictators are isolated tinpot tyrants who will obligingly decamp to the French Riviera with their ill-gotten gains at the first stirrings of trouble or as soon as John Simpson has positioned himself outside the presidential palace to see history made. As often as not, threatened despots summon the army and the secret police, and manoeuvre and terrorise their challengers into submission. That is plainly part of what Hosni Mubarak and some of those around him are trying to achieve in Egypt. Mubarak may be a wounded beast, but he is still a big beast, and still – in some diminishing ways – a strong one. For 30 years he has sat atop a pyramid of Egyptian power whose interests are almost as much opposed to radical change as his own are. Whether his allies and battalions have the common purpose to maintain their own power when he finally steps down is difficult to predict. They certainly have an interest in such an outcome. And they are still trying today, making further strategic concessions while attacking protesters in the cities. Anything is possible. But that’s the point. This is not a done deal. Nevertheless, it is clear what ought to
Continue reading …News that the postal service has to cut back even further has Meghan Daum feeling a little glum about her beloved snail mail. “This love affair began decades ago, back when the ‘snail’ qualifier wasn’t necessary,” she writes in the Los Angeles Times . She’d sort the mail as a kid…
Continue reading …It’s supposedly illegal to import semiautomatic weapons that don’t have a “sporting purpose” into the US. Yet Mexican drug cartels are buying hundreds of Romanian AK-47s legally here in the US of A, a Center for Public Integrity investigation finds. Mexico’s strict gun control laws have long driven its criminals…
Continue reading …Rick Santorum will probably run for president in 2012, and George Will sounds pretty happy about it. With his focus on social issues—he’s “passionately right-to-life and dedicated to trying to reform today’s abortion culture”—Santorum might be the perfect candidate to energize social conservatives (who are “feeling neglected”) and…
Continue reading …Vice-president Omar Suleiman blames ‘foreign agendas’ for increased violence in Cairo’s Tahrir Square Omar Suleiman, Egypt’s vice-president, said today there was no chance of Hosni Mubarak stepping down before autumn elections, warning that stability must be maintained so that key constitutional changes can go ahead. In a combative appearance on state TV, Mubarak’s newly appointed deputy blamed “foreign agendas” for the violence of the last two days and pledged that those responsible would be held to account – ignoring ample evidence that paid thugs attacked pro-democracy demonstrators. Speaking on the eve of what protestors have dubbed “departure Friday”, the former intelligence chief appeared to resist attempts by the US and other western governments to persuade Mubarak to step down before the next election. “I blame some friendly countries for saying the wrong things,” he said. Mubarak’s long and loyal service to Egypt meant he should serve out his full term, Suleiman said. The vice-president spoke after holding the first session of a “national dialogue” with representatives of opposition movements to discuss a “road-map” and timetable for political reform. They agreed to form committees to look at constitutional change, the economy and law and order, but no decisions of substance were taken. The session was not attended by the powerful Muslim Brotherhood, which Suleiman said was “hesitating”, presumably because it opposes talks until Mubarak steps down. Western diplomats in Cairo said Suleiman and other leaders were digging in behind the embattled president. “They are rattled and under pressure but there is no sign of them giving up in the face of the criticism from foreign capitals,” one official said. “There is a sense of disconnect.” Suleiman said there was much to do in “less than 200 days”, highlighting calls to amend articles 76 and 77 of the constitution, which deal with limits to presidential terms and restrict the conditions for candidates to run for the presidency. Suleiman urged demonstrators in Cairo’s central Tahrir Square to end their 10-day protest, saying their reform demands have been answered. He said the army was on the streets to enforce a curfew, protect people against thugs and to make up for the police’s lack of capabilities to deal with the unrest. Samir Radwan, Egypt’s finance minister, said he would “never do anything to humiliate” Mubarak. Britain’s foreign secretary, William Hague, described the scenes of violence in Cairo as “reprehensible” and warned of the potential for further violence, saying that the world was watching the authorities’ response. “Their reputation will be severely damaged if we see violence at the levels we have seen recently,” he said. “The Egyptian people’s right to express their views in public freely must be defended. Today’s scenes underline further the imperative need for the Egyptian authorities urgently to commit to an orderly transition to a broader-based government that respects the legitimate aspirations of the Egyptian people.” Egypt Middle East Protest US foreign policy Ian Black guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …Reviewers have gotten an early peek at Donald Rumsfeld’s memoir, Known and Unknown , with the Washington Post and New York Times noting these highlights: Biggest regret: Not insisting that President Bush accept his resignation after the Abu Ghraib allegations in 2004. He says the abuse was the work of rogue…
Continue reading …A Florida man became the second person in nearly 40 years to be convicted of killing a manatee yesterday, after a neighbor caught him in the act. Joseph Miata Jr, 62, hit the unfortunate sea cow while blasting through a manatee refuge at a recklessly high speed, the St. Petersburg…
Continue reading …Parrots are left-handed … or at least, as left-handed as you can be when you don’t actually have hands. Australian researchers discovered that, like humans, nearly all parrots prefer to use one side of their body over the other: either their left eye and left foot, or right eye and…
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