The Booker prize-winning novelist on her political activism in India, why she no longer condemns violent resistance – and why it doesn’t matter if she never writes a second novel This is not an ideal beginning. I bump into Arundhati Roy as we are both heading for the loo in the foyer of the large building that houses her publisher Penguin’s offices. There are some authors, V S Naipaul say, with whom this could be awkward. But not Roy, who makes me feel instantly at ease. A few minutes later, her publicist settles us in a small, bare room. As we take our positions on either side of a narrow desk I liken it to an interrogation suite. But she says that in India, interrogation rooms are a good deal less salubrious than this. Roy, who is 50 this year, is best known for her 1997 Booker prize-winning novel The God of Small Things , but for the past decade has been an increasingly vocal critic of the Indian state, attacking its policy towards Kashmir, the environmental destruction wrought by rapid development, the country’s nuclear weapons programme and corruption. As a prominent opponent of everything connected with globalisation, she is seeking to construct a “new modernity” based on sustainability and a defence of traditional ways of life. Her new book, Broken Republic, brings together three essays about the Maoist guerrilla movement in the forests of central India that is resisting the government’s attempts to develop and mine land on which tribal people live. The central essay, Walking with the Comrades, is a brilliant piece of reportage, recounting three weeks she spent with the guerrillas in the forest. She must, I suggest, have been in great personal danger. “Everybody’s in great danger there, so you can’t go round feeling you are specially in danger,” she says in her pleasant, high-pitched voice. In any case, she says, the violence of bullets and torture are no greater than the violence of hunger and malnutrition, of vulnerable people feeling they’re under siege. Her time with the guerrillas made a profound impression. She describes spending nights sleeping on the forest floor in a “thousand-star hotel”, applauds “the ferocity and grandeur of these poor people fighting back”, and says “being in the forest made me feel like there was enough space in my body for all my organs”. She detests glitzy, corporate, growth-obsessed modern Indian, and there in the forest she found a brief peace. There is intense anger in the book, I say, implying that if she toned it down she might find a readier audience. “The anger is calibrated,” she insists. “It’s less than I actually feel.” But even so, her critics call her shrill. “That word ‘shrill’ is reserved for any expression of feeling. It’s all right for the establishment to be as shrill as it likes about annihilating people.” Is her political engagement derived from her mother, Mary Roy, who set up a school for girls in Kerala and has a reputation as a women’s rights activist? “She’s not an activist,” says Roy. “I don’t know why people keep saying that. My mother is like a character who escaped from the set of a Fellini film.” She laughs at her own description. “She’s a whole performing universe of her own. Activists would run a mile from her because they could not deal with what she is.” I want to talk more about Mary Roy – and eventually we do – but there’s one important point to clear up first. Guerrillas use violence, generally directed against the police and army, but sometimes causing injury and death to civilians caught in the crossfire. Does she condemn that violence? “I don’t condemn it any more,” she says. “If you’re an adivasi [tribal Indian] living in a forest village and 800 CRP [Central Reserve Police] come and surround your village and start burning it, what are you supposed to do? Are you supposed to go on hunger strike? Can the hungry go on a hunger strike? Non-violence is a piece of theatre. You need an audience. What can you do when you have no audience? People have the right to resist annihilation.” Her critics label her a Maoist sympathiser. Is she? “I am a Maoist sympathiser,” she says. “I’m not a Maoist ideologue, because the communist movements in history have been just as destructive as capitalism. But right now, when the assault is on, I feel they are very much part of the resistance that I support.” Roy talks about the resistance as an “insurrection”; she makes India sound as if it’s ripe for a Chinese or Russian-style revolution. So how come we in the west don’t hear about these mini-wars? “I have been told quite openly by several correspondents of international newspapers,” she says, “that they have instructions – ‘No negative news from India’ – because it’s an investment destination. So you don’t hear about it. But there is an insurrection, and it’s not just a Maoist insurrection. Everywhere in the country, people are fighting.” I find the suggestion that such an injunction exists – or that self-respecting journalists would accept it – ridiculous. Foreign reporting of India might well be lazy or myopic, but I don’t believe it’s corrupt. She sounds like a member of a religious sect, I say, as if she has seen the light. “It’s a way of life, a way of thinking,” she replies without taking offence. “I know people in India, even the modern young people, understand that here is something that’s alive.” So why not give up the plush home in Delhi and the media appearances, and return to the forest? “I’d be more than happy to if I had to, but I would be a liability to them in the forest. The battles have to be fought in different ways. The military side is just one part of it. What I do is another part of the battle.” I question her absolutism, her Manichaean view of the world, but I admire her courage. Her home has been pelted with stones; the Indian launch of Broken Republic was interrupted by pro-government demonstrators who stormed the stage; she may be charged with sedition for saying that Kashmiris should be given the right of self-determination. “They are trying to keep me destabilised,” she says. Does she feel threatened? “Anybody who says anything is in danger. Hundreds of people are in jail.” Roy has likened writing fiction and polemic to the difference between dancing and walking. Does she not want to dance again? “Of course I do.” Is she working on a new novel? “I have been,” she says with a laugh, “but I don’t get much time to do it.” Does it bother her that the followup to The God of Small Things has been so long in coming? “I’m a highly unambitious person,” she says. “What does it matter if there is or isn’t a novel? I really don’t look at it that way. For me, nothing would have been worth not going into that forest.” It’s hard to judge whether there will be a second novel. The God of Small Things drew so much on her own life – her charismatic but overbearing mother; a drunken tea-planter father whom her mother left when Roy was very young; her own departure from home in her late teens – that it may be a one-off, a book as much lived as written. She gives ambiguous answers about whether she expects a second novel to appear. On the one hand, she says she is engaged with the resistance movement and that it dominates her thoughts. But almost in the same breath she says others have “picked up the baton” and she would like to return to fiction, to dance again. What is certain is that little of the second novel has so far been written. She prefers not to tell me what it is about; indeed, she says it would not be possible to pinpoint the theme. “I don’t have subjects. It’s not like I’m trying to write an anti-dam novel. Fiction is too beautiful to be about just one thing. It should be about everything.” Has she been blocked by the pressure of having to follow up a Booker winner? “No,” she says. “We’re not children all wanting to come first in class and win prizes. It’s the pleasure of doing it. I don’t know whether it will be a good book, but I’m curious about how and what I will write after these journeys.” Are her agent and publisher disappointed still to be waiting for the second novel? “They always knew there wasn’t going to be some novel-producing factory,” she says. “I was very clear about that. I don’t see the point. I did something. I enjoyed doing it. I’m doing something now. I’m living to the edges of my fingernails, using everything I have. It’s impossible for me to look at things politically or in any way as a project, to further my career. You’re injected directly into the blood of the places in which you’re living and what’s going on there.” She has no financial need to write another novel. The God of Small Things, which sold more than 6m copies around the world, set her up for life, even though she has given much of the money away. She even spurned offers for the film rights, because she didn’t want anyone interpreting her book for the screen. “Every reader has a vision of it in their head,” she says, “and I didn’t want it to be one film.” She is strong-willed. Back in 1996, when The God of Small Things was being prepared for publication, she insisted on having control of the cover image because she didn’t want “a jacket with tigers and ladies in saris”. She is her indomitable mother’s daughter. I insist she tell me more about her Fellini-esque mother. She is, says Roy, like an empress. She has a number of buttons beside her bed which, when you press them, emit different bird calls. Each call signals to one of her retinue what she requires. Has she been the centre of her daughter’s life? “No, she has been the centre of a lot of conflict in my life. She’s an extraordinary women, and when we are together I feel like we are two nuclear-armed states.” She laughs loudly. “We have to be a bit careful.” To defuse the family tensions, Roy left home when she was 16 to study architecture in Delhi – even then she wanted to build a new world. She married a fellow student at the age of 17. “He was a very nice guy, but I didn’t take it seriously,” she says. In 1984 she met and married film-maker Pradip Krishen, and helped him bring up his two daughters by an earlier marriage. They now live separately, though she still refers to him as her “sweetheart”. So why separate? “My life is so crazy. There’s so much pressure and idiosyncrasy. I don’t have any establishment. I don’t have anyone to mediate between me and the world. It’s just based on instinct.” I think what she’s saying is that freedom matters more to her than anything else. She chose not to have children because it would have impinged on that freedom. “For a long time I didn’t have the means to support them,” she says, “and once I did I thought I was too unreliable. So many of the women in India who are fighting these battles don’t have children, because anything can happen. You have to be light on your feet and light in your head. I like to be a mobile republic.” Roy has in the past described herself as “a natural-born feminist”. What did she mean by that? “Because of my mother and the way I grew up without a father to look after me, you learned early on that rule number one was look out for yourself. Much of what I can do and say now comes from being independent at an early age.” Her mother was born into a wealthy, conservative Christian community in Kerala, but put herself outside the pale by marrying Ranjit Roy, a Hindu from West Bengal. When she returned to her home state after her divorce she had little money and was thus doubly marginalised. The mother eventually triumphed over all these obstacles and made a success of the school she founded, but growing up an outsider has left its mark on her daughter. Roy says she has always been polemical, and points to her run-in with director Shekhar Kapur in the mid-1990s over his film Bandit Queen – she questioned whether he had the right to portray the rape of a living person on screen without that woman’s consent. It may be that the novel is the exception in a life of agitation, rather than the agitation an odd outcrop in a life of fiction-writing. But has she sacrificed too much for the struggle – the chance to dance, children, perhaps even her second marriage? “I don’t see any of these things as sacrifices,” she says. “They are positive choices. I feel surrounded by love, by excitement. They are not being done in some martyr-like way. When I was walking through the forest with the comrades, we were laughing all the time.” Arundhati Roy India Protest Cultural trips Stephen Moss guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …Sarah Palin will have you know that she knows her American history and “didn’t mess up about Paul Revere,” the might-be presidential candidate tells Fox News Sunday. Palin stood by last week’s claim that Revere warned the Brits that they weren’t going to take Americans’ weapons, so we could “make…
Continue reading …Millions of Peruvians turn out to vote in election which sees populists from the far right and left battling it out Peru voted in a cliffhanger presidential election on Sunday which pitted two populists from the far right and left against each other, testing the country’s young democracy and thriving economy to the test. Final opinion polls gave Ollanta Humala, a former army officer who once staged a coup, a slim lead over Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who was jailed for corruption and human rights abuses. “Let’s not fall into confrontation. Let’s treat today as a party,” said Humala after a mud-slinging campaign in which both sides accused the other of being dangers to democracy. Fujimori struck an equally conciliatory note. “I trust God will know how to guide our country.” Analysts warned, however, that the loser was likely to demand a recount and claim fraud in a poll which drew millions of Peruvians from Andean highlands, Amazon forests and Pacific coast cities. Polls last week gave Humala, 48, a razor-thin lead within statistical margins of error but an Ipsos poll on Saturday gave him a slightly wider lead of 3.8%. The former lieutenant colonel modelled himself on Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s socialist president, in a previous run for the presidency but this time he swapped red T-shirts for suits and tacked to the centre to try to soothe concerns he would derail breakneck economic growth. “We are proposing democracy, not dictatorship … with development, social and economic inclusion, as well as economic growth,” he said in a final campaign rally. Fujimori, 36, is the daughter of Alberto, a president who crushed leftist guerrillas and tamed inflation in the 1990s but who ended up disgraced and in jail over corruption and death squad killings. The young senator dropped a pledge to pardon her father and said she would respect judicial independence and other institutions guaranteeing Peru’s democracy. “It is fundamental for us to maintain clear rules for investors,” she said. “[Humala] is a good soldier of Hugo Chávez.” She cast herself as a hardworking mother and won support from the urban poor and big business elites, including media groups which turned into cheerleaders for his campaign. Humala tapped the rural poor’s resentment at feeling bypassed by a commodities-led economic boom. A group of intellectuals backed him as the lesser evil, including the Nobel laureate Mario Vargas Llosa, who compared the candidates as a choice between Aids and cancer. Peru Rory Carroll guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …Exit polls give centre-right social democrats sweeping victory over José Sócrates’s socialists Portugal has moved sharply to the right after a general election saw socialist prime minister José Sócrates ousted by opposition leader Pedro Passos Coelho as the country voted under the shadow of a €78bn euro bailout package. Television exit polls gave Passos Coelho’s centre-right social democrats a sweeping victory with a lead of some 12 percentage points over the socialists. Sócrates admitted defeat and said he would stand down as party leader. “The Socialist party lost these elections,” he said. The vote saw yet another left-wing government ejected from power in Europe because of the economic crisis, with the socialists paying heavily for the sharp downturn that forced the country to seek a financial rescue package. Only five left-wing-led governments now remain among the 27 member states – in Spain, Greece, Austria, Slovenia and Cyprus. “We now have a very difficult period for the next two or three years,” Passos Coelho said before the votes had been counted. “But I’m sure that we will make the necessary change and Portugal will achieve new prosperity with economic growth.” “In the markets, we will only have confidence if we are committed to the memorandum of understanding reached with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund,” he added, referring to the bailout package. Passos Coelho was expected to form a government with the right-wing People’s party (CDS-PP). Exit polls showed that between them they would have a parliamentary majority. “Both parties are strongly committed to the implementation of the bail out conditions and would easily negotiate a common economic programme, “Antonio Barroso, of political risk consultancy Eurasia, said prior to the vote. Voting took place against a background of economic misery, with unemployment rising to over 12% – the worst in three decades – and spending cuts in education, health and pensions seen as inevitable. Portugal’s economy is expected to contract by 2% both this year and next as spending cuts bite and tax hikes are also used to bring down the budget deficit. The election follows months of political squabbling over how to cut the debt burden. Opposition parties refused to accept the outgoing Sócrates government’s last austerity plan, prompting him to resign and a snap election to be called. Portugal has taken advantage of cheap eurozone loan rates to build up debt over the past decade, despite a meagre average annual growth rate of below 1%. Soaring yields on Portuguese government bonds over the past 18 months finally forced it to ask for a bailout in April. Both the socialists and Passos Coelho’s social democrats accepted the bailout conditions imposed by what the Portuguese media call “the troika” of the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. “The government that will emerge from this election will have the responsibility to honour the commitments taken (under the bailout plan), which are very demanding,” President Anibíal Cavaco Silva had warned. As with fellow eurozone members Greece and Ireland, which have also been given bailouts, Portugal cannot devalue its currency to lower export prices and make its goods more competitive on the world market. Turnout was below the 2009 level of 60%, exit polls indicated. Cavaco Silva had warned voters that they could not complain about what politicians did “at a time of sacrifice and serious doubts abotu our future” if they did not taken part in the elections. European Commission president José Manuel Durao Barroso declared this the most important election in his home country for four decades. Portugal Europe Giles Tremlett guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …Iman al-Obeidi, the Libyan who broke through Moammar Gadhafi’s media control to accuse his troops of gang rape, is headed to the United States. Al-Obeidi had been staying in Qatar until that nation inexplicably expelled her Thursday, and she ended up back in her native Benghazi. Al-Obeidi’s sister tells the…
Continue reading …The smartphones in our pockets are far more powerful than the desktop computers we dreamed of in the 1980s. This year they are outselling PCs – and soon they could replace our wallets as well When he was diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes last summer, Tim Smith was given a blood sugar monitor, and a notebook with a pencil. The monitor, obviously, to test his sugar levels; the notebook to note them down so he could tell his doctor. Given his job in IT for Sainsbury’s, Smith wasn’t about to use something so low-tech as pencil and paper. “I would have lost it or torn it,” he says. A few years ago, he says, he probably would have taken the readings and entered them in an Excel spreadsheet on his PC, to make pretty graphs. But this was 2010, and so he turned to his smartphone, and quickly found an app – Glucose Buddy – that let him take his readings anywhere he liked. They’d be uploaded to the internet, so he could access them any time. Graphs? Of course. Alarms to remind him to take a reading? If he wanted. Advice on diet? Available for a cheap upgrade to the free app. Smith is just one of the millions of people around the world who now own a smartphone, and the number is growing rapidly. In the first three months of this year, just under half of all the 45m mobile phones sold in western Europe fell into that category – able to browse the web, send and receive email, and run custom-written apps. That’s as well as storing contacts and calendars, sending text messages and (how quaint) making phone calls. Worldwide, smartphones represent 24% of all mobiles sold worldwide between January and March – up from 15% a year before. The tipping point when they make up 50% may only be a year or so away. And before the end of the decade, every phone sold will be what we’d now call a smartphone. Smith’s use of his iPhone is typical of the way smartphones are used: to connect to the internet, hold data, run programs, organise our lives. They’re fast replacing what we perhaps wrongly thought was an embedded part of our lives: the PC. Notice what Smith, an IT professional, didn’t do: he didn’t use a PC, and he didn’t fire up Microsoft’s Excel spreadsheet program. That’s indicative of a huge shift that’s coming to computing, and was behind Microsoft’s $8bn splurge in May when it bought the Skype internet telephone service , and behind the rumours that Microsoft is going to buy Nokia , the Finnish company that makes most mobile handsets and smartphones. In this shift, there was an earthquake at the end of 2010. PCs had always sold far more than smartphones (which only date back to 2003 or so). In the first three months of 2010, 85m PCs were sold worldwide, compared with 55m smartphones. Optimistic analysts forecast that the crossover might happen in 2012. Instead, by the last three months of 2010, 94m PCs were sold – and 100m smartphones. Analysts believe that this trend will never reverse. (It continued in the first quarter of this year: 82m PCs, 100m smartphones.) “Smartphones will keep growing in sales approaching the billion-plus levels of total handset sales before this decade is done,” says Tomi Ahonen, a former Nokia executive who now has his own mobile industry consultancy. “The trend of PC sales is stagnant or at best modest growth, selling around 300m per year.” Microsoft is concerned about what is happening with mobile, because it knows it is the future, and
Continue reading …Official register records fall of over 1,600 charities in coalition’s first year, with mergers seeing a 150% increase David Cameron’s pledge to bring more charities into the public sector through his “big society” initiative risks collapsing before it has begun, charity leaders have warned, as Guardian research reveals the total number of registered charities operating in the UK fell by more than 1,600 in the coalition’s first year. More than 8,000 charities have been removed from the official register, held by the Charity Commission, since May 2010, and only 6,400 new charities have been founded in their place. A commission spokeswoman said the number of charities on the register generally remained constant each year. The commission has seen a 150% increase in the number of cases its mergers unit has dealt with since 2009, driven in part by charities adapting to straitened economic circumstances. Charity bosses fear the reduction in the total number of charities is a portent of a contraction in the sector, which is only just beginning to be felt as billions of pounds in statutory support are cut. The number of charities fell by more than 700 in March alone, just before the first round of grant reductions resulting from drastic local authority budget cuts. Bringing in charities to provide public services to “tackle our most deep-rooted social problems” is a cornerstone of Cameron’s big society project, relaunched for the third time last month , but charity leaders have warned cuts in charitable grants could kill off the proposals. “The big society doesn’t come for free,” said Emily Holzhausen, policy director of Carers UK . “Community projects do need resources to get off the ground. If those aren’t there, or are even removed, it’s a real worry. Public grants make up a core part of many charities’ funding. Charities losing that part of their funding are often no longer viable, which affects services to some of the most vulnerable communities in the country. Anecdotally, we’ve heard of several organisations that now no longer exist. This research seems to back that up.” Holzhausen said cuts to charity grants could often be particularly devastating to vulnerable communities as charities supplement their statutory income with cash from donations and other sources, extra money which can be irrevocably lost if public core funding is withdrawn. The sector’s growing reliance on such funding is highlighted by an analysis of figures published by the Charities Aid Foundation (CAF), which reveals voluntary income – money from donations and similar sources – is falling at the UK’s largest 1,000 charities. Charities’ latest accounts, which cover 2010 and some of 2009, showed charitable incomes were beginning to recover from the hit many had taken during the depths of the recession, with an average above-inflation rise of 6.8%. But one in four charities’ incomes were already experiencing a year-on-year fall before the budget cuts, with voluntary donations experiencing a particular squeeze. They fell from an average of 35% of total income to 32.5%, making the sector more reliant on income from endowments and public sector grants, and leaving it especially vulnerable to cuts. Jane Arnott, senior advisory manager for CAF, said voluntary income was under pressure due to the tough economic climate. “Unemployment and inflation have the most obvious impact on charitable giving,” she said. “The income of public sector workers is frozen, while those in the private sector got around 3% this year. With inflation at 4.5%, incomes are under pressure. In this climate, charities may see voluntary income falling by more than they expected. “We are seeing more charities coming to us that have traditionally relied on income from donations and grants from trusts and local authorities looking to diversify.” She said “corporate support and high net worth individuals” remained as the “streams were not yet exhausted”. The figures reflect long-running trends in charitable giving, with recent research by the University of Bristol and Cass Business School having tracked 30 years of data to establish that fewer households than a generation ago donate. Also troubling for those trying to foster a giving culture in British society is the apathy of the young: older people are substantially more likely to donate and the share of donations from over 60s rose from 33% to 44% between 1978 and 2009. The Charity Commission said it was unable to provide a breakdown of the reasons behind removals from the charity register but pointed out it had become more systematic about removing inactive charities. Martin Brookes, of New Philanthropy Capital, suggested mergers were likely to be important. “Healthy companies merge when they spot synergies between their work, but charities do so to balance the books when they run out of money. Already this year, we have seen the youth charity Fairbridge, an organisation once praised by David Cameron, being swallowed up by the Prince’s Trust, a development which should worry anyone who cares about its valuable work.” Charities Voluntary sector Communities James Ball guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …Imagine Tea Party Utopia—a country with low taxes, limited government, a strong military, deeply patriotic citizens, plenty of school prayer, and no same-sex anything. Well, that country exists, and it’s called Pakistan, writes Nicholas Kristof in the New York Times . “The United States is, of course, in no danger…
Continue reading …Coalition might legislate if national strike action goes ahead, business secretary tells GMB union conference The business secretary, Vince Cable, will issue a warning to the country’s union bosses that if they ratchet up strike action opposing the coalition’s cuts the government could be forced to tighten laws to make it harder for them to embark on industrial action. It is the first explicit acknowledgment by a coalition minister of a wish to legislate to prevent widespread strikes. Other ministers involved have refrained for fear of increasing tensions at a crucial point in talks currently under way to avoid a mass walk out across the public sector. Cable will tell the GMB union annual conference in Brighton that there is currently no reason to reform the laws – action some rightwingers, including London mayor Boris Johnson have called for. But that could change, he will warn. “We are undoubtedly entering a difficult period. Cool heads will be required all round. Despite occasional blips, I know that strike levels remain historically low, especially in the private sector. On that basis, and assuming this pattern continues, the case for changing strike law is not compelling,” he will say. “However, should the position change, and should strikes impose serious damage to our economic and social fabric, the pressure on us to act would ratchet up. That is something which both you, and certainly I, would wish to avoid.” Ministers are locked in talks with the unions to negotiate a new pension deal for state employees – the only issue that all of the public sector unions have in common and therefore the only one in which they could launch joint industrial action. It is understood that those talks are making little headway with ministers refusing to back down on increasing workers’ contributions. Other unions representing up to six million public sector workers could then edge towards industrial action. Cable’s intervention is significant at a delicate stage in that process, and at the peak of the season for union annual conferences. One breakaway group of unions representing 500,000 state employees – including the PCS civil service union and some of the teaching unions – are currently preparing to strike on 30 June. Schools, courts, ports and Whitehall could all come to a standstill. A business department source insisted that Cable was issuing a “subtle” message to the unions. “We hope the unions will see this as quite comforting that the secretary of state says there is no case at the moment. But at the same time if circumstances change, the government’s position will change,” the source said. On Sunday there were reports of a a substantial new round of redundancies in development at the Royal Mail which would see up to 40,000 jobs slashed. It would also trigger a standoff with the unions who have agreed a more moderate reduction over the next two years. This also accompanied warnings about the government’s economic strategy , with a group of leading economists calling for a plan B alternative to the coalition’s spending cuts in a fragile economy. Those voicing concerns include two ex-senior government economists. Treasury sources pointed out that one, Jonathan Portes, the former chief economist to the cabinet office, was a personal appointee of Gordon Brown. The shadow chancellor Ed Balls meanwhile told Sky News: “We were told in the autumn by the chancellor and David Cameron that … the private sector would be spending and investing more, confidence would rise, the economy would do well. I’m afraid the opposite is happening. Confidence is down and we’re now seeing, week by week, more evidence that the economy is stalling.” However, the foreign secretary, William Hague, said that the government was right to stick to its course. “The government strategy is endorsed by the IMF, it is endorsed by the OECD, the G20, by all the major business organisations in this country and the harsh truth is that Gordon Brown did not leave this country with the luxury of a plan B or a different economic strategy,” he said. Balls launched a plan on Sunday in which Labour will attempt to lead a cross-party rebellion to enforce a new £2bn tax on bankers to fund a back-to-work scheme for jobless young people. It would provide £1.2bn for a house-building scheme to provide low-cost homes and create 20,000 new jobs, £600m in payments to employers to take 90,000 more under-25s and £200m for unemployment “blackspots” around the country. Trade unions Vince Cable Liberal-Conservative coalition Public sector cuts Public sector pay Public sector pensions Public finance Public services policy Polly Curtis guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …Boundary review to equalise and reduce constituencies by 50 could prompt mutiny, with Tory backbenchers also affected The Liberal Democrats face losing up to a quarter of their seats when a Tory-imposed plan to redraw the entire electoral map comes into force from September, figures seen by the Guardian suggest. The boundary review to equalise constituencies and reduce their number by 50, agreed by Nick Clegg in exchange for the AV referendum in the coalition agreement, is threatening the biggest upheaval to the Commons of this parliament. MPs have been warned that almost no seat is safe. The issue could force a mutiny in the coalition amid mounting evidence that the Liberal Democrats will fare far worse than predicted and with David Cameron facing further tensions with his backbenchers, some of whom are certain to lose their seats. The four Boundary Commissions of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are preparing to announce the new electoral map in September. But the most detailed analysis yet of what those new seats might look like, conducted by academics based at Liverpool University and published by the Guardian, suggests the Liberal Democrats will lose the greatest proportion of their seats. Fourteen out of 57 could be wiped off the electoral map. The Tories have long argued for the changes to redress what they see as an imbalance that has helped Labour win elections on a lower share of the vote. But the analysis suggests that instead it is the Liberal Democrats who will bear the brunt of the reforms. “The Liberal Democrats clearly did not know what they were agreeing to. It was extremely naive. It’s like turkeys voting for Christmas,” one Labour source said. Lewis Baston of Democratic Audit, a research group working from Liverpool University, has devised a model of the new map based on the guidelines set out by the legislation behind the reforms. In his version, the Tories would lose 16 seats – 5.2% of their total; Labour would lose 17 – 6.6%; and the Liberal Democrats a crippling 14 – 24.6%. Ministers including Norman Baker, Sarah Teather, Andrew Stunell and Grant Shapps would be among those most vulnerable. Baston said: “The Liberal Democrats are likely to lose out more than the other main parties because their seats are yellow islands in a sea of red or blue; changing the boundaries is more likely to bring in hostile territories, their majorities tend to be smaller than Labour or Conservative MPs and their Lib Dems trade a lot on incumbency and constituency service. That is disrupted by a boundary review.” But he said the Tories had also overestimated any advantage the reforms could present them with. “They put too much faith in this, it will unsettle MPs of every party, all over the place.” MPs who potentially face a fight for the same seat include the chancellor, George Osborne, and the chair of the Conservative 1922 backbench committee in parliament, Graham Brady, as well as the Liberal Democrat chief secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander, and the popular former leader of his party, Charles Kennedy. Some senior sources in the Liberal Democrat and Tory parties disputed the findings saying they are markedly different from previous projections. Other predictions made by the parties themselves dispute the extent of the problem for the Liberal Democrats but back up the theory that it fails to extend the Tory lead over Labour. Some respected psephologists have argued that the boundary changes will not dramatically advantage the Conservatives. Lord Tyler, the Liberal Democrat constitutional affairs spokesman in the Lords, said: “The penny hasn’t dropped in Downing Street about the effect this will have on the backbenches, but the penny has certainly dropped in local constituency offices. There are MPs asking why this is being rushed, why it has to be necessary at this stage.” An account of an internal briefing with the parties reveals that the Boundary Commission for England has issued a warning that no seat is entirely safe from change. It says: “He [the deputy chairman] took the opportunity to emphasise again that any assumption that an existing seat … would automatically remain untouched was not correct.” Overall, 50 seats will be abolished. It has already been confirmed that Wales, which has historically small constituencies, will lose 10, the north-west will lose seven and London and the West Midlands will lose five each. Labour loses the most because it dominates inner cities where constituencies often have fewer voters. Where boundaries change, MPs of the same party will also be fighting one another for reselection. Marginal seats could be made even more marginal while dozens of seats will change hands as boundaries alter the political composition of the electorate. The new seats will be announced from 6 September, making for a summer of uncertainty for MPs. A lengthy consultation will follow in which the parties can make representations to challenge decisions. The new map will be subject to a vote in both houses of parliament, creating a point of rebellion in 2013. One Tory said: “The question is, if you’re a Lib Dem and there is a Labour rebellion, do you join with them in opposing this? You rely on incumbency – being known to your patch – and then not only do you lose that but, by being in government, you’re more unpopular than you’ve ever been. Their party leadership may have decided they can’t ask their troopers to vote it through.” The Conservatives are ploughing substantial resources into preparing for the reforms. Roger Pratt, a political strategist with 40 years’ experience in the party, has been leading a boundary review group since last summer. It has made its own calculations of what the Boundary Commission is going to do and Pratt has been briefing MPs one-to-one and on a regional basis advising them of the changes. Cameron told a private meeting of his MPs some months back that no one would lose out – suggesting that they would either be given the seat of a retiring MP or possibly be elevated to the Lords. It is understood the Conservative party is also prepared to make counterproposals, should it disagree with the outcome in a consultation process in the autumn. Labour has its own group, led by its chief strategist Greg Cook – known as “Mystic Greg” for his ability to predict election results. It has been drawing up rules to help resolve territorial disputes between competing MPs. Labour MPs will be able to lay claim to a new seat if it includes substantial numbers of their current constituents. “There will be needless disruption,” the Labour source said. “There will be some silly outcomes – some local boroughs will end up overlapping with others and it will be ridiculous. “They have taken away the rule not to cross London boroughs. It will be confusing for MPs who may in future find they are dealing with as many as seven local councils when trying to secure a win for a constituent.” The Liberal Democrats have sent delegations to meetings with the commission but, struggling with funding cuts to their party HQ, their preparation is less comprehensive. Liberal-Conservative coalition Conservatives Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg David Cameron Labour Electoral reform Polly Curtis Allegra Stratton guardian.co.uk
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