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Isles of Scilly turn heat on Jersey

Tourism officials complain over £1m advertising campaign, but biggest Channel Island remains defiant Tourism officials on the Isles of Scilly are to lodge a complaint over a claim made by Jersey’s tourism office in a £1m TV advertising campaign that the largest of the Channel Islands is “the warmest place in the British Isles”. Met Office temperature records for Scilly obtained by the Guardian also appear to undermine Jersey’s claim. The Met Office officially recognises Scilly as the warmest place in the UK. A Met Office spokesman said that Jersey – 50 miles further south – does not fall under its auspices because “it is not part of the UK”, although “it had no reason to doubt” Jersey’s claims to be warmer. The small print on Jersey’s advert says it bases its claim on “minimum temperatures supplied by the Jersey Meteorological Department “. Tony Pallot, Jersey’s principal meteorological officer, said Jersey’s “mean minimum” for 1971-2000 – the period used by the Met Office to calculate all its mean temperatures – was 8.9C (32F). However, Met Office data for Scilly seen by the Guardian says the “mean minimum” for St Mary’s, Scilly’s largest island, was 9.4C over the period. On other measures such as hours of sunshine and maximum mean temperatures, Jersey performs marginally better. The council of the Isles of Scilly is also contesting the use of the term “Britain” in Jersey’s advert, arguing that the Bailiwick of Jersey is a British crown dependency but not part of the UK. It also argues that, geographically, Jersey is not part of the British Isles archipelago. Julian Pearce, the council’s economic development officer, said: “We shall be writing to Jersey to remind them of both our geographical position and our ranking as the warmest place in the UK.” He also said he was investigating whether the council had grounds to make a formal complaint to the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA). Jennifer Ellenger of Jersey Tourism said: “We stand 100% behind our advert and we have the data to prove we are the warmest place. We are politically part of the British Isles, even if not strictly geographically.” She confirmed the advert’s claim is based on the mean minimum temperature, but also on two further measures – average hours of sunshine per year and “mean annual” temperature. She added that another aim is to suggest the people of Jersey are the warmest in the British Isles, too. Ordnance Survey , the national mapping agency for “Great Britain” – namely, England, Scotland and Wales – said it defines the “British Isles” as being “all the main and offshore islands of Great Britain and Ireland, as well as the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands”. Malcolm Bell, head of tourism at VisitCornwall , which works closely with Council of the Isles of Scilly to attract 4.5 million tourists to the far south-west of England each year – 100,000 ofwhom visit Scilly – said he would be writing to Jersey Tourism in support of Scilly. He said: “When I first saw the advert I just laughed. It seems a bit desperate to base an advert on warmth alone when people who are only interested in that would just go to somewhere such as Dubai instead. “But the advert’s claim is also a bit cheeky. People want honesty in advertising. “Jersey might just about be technically correct in what they say, but it is bordering on unethical to stretch the truth like this when promoting your destination. We are in economically challenging times and we want to fight fairly for every customer.” Jersey, which received 685,000 visitors in 2010, has been challenged before over its tourism campaigns. In 1990, the ASA upheld a complaint against Jersey after it failed to substantiate a claim that it had more sunshine that anywhere else in the British Isles. In 1993, the ASA criticised Jersey for making exaggerated claims after it ran a newspaper campaign boasting that “our sandy beaches are always spotless and all of our golden beaches are scrubbed and rinsed twice by clear blue water”. The ASA noted that “on seven recent occasions large quantities of untreated sewage had poured onto bathing beaches”. Last year, Jersey Tourism accused the Met Office and the BBC of discrimination because it felt the Channel Islands were routinely left out of national weather forecasts. As a result, it said it was missing out on millions of pounds worth of revenue from prospective visitors. “Many people don’t have any idea just how lovely the weather is a short hop away from the mainland – meaning we lose out on valuable income,” David de Carteret, director of Jersey Tourism, said then. It was this grievance, says Jersey Tourism, that led it to base this year’s campaign around the “warmest place in the British Isles” slogan. Scilly v Jersey Number of islands Scilly: 145 (five inhabited) Jersey: 1 Population Scilly: 2,100 Jersey: 91,626 VAT Scilly: 20% Jersey: 0% Economy Scilly: tourism, daffodil farming Jersey: banking, tourism, Jersey Royal potatoes, Jersey cattle History Scilly: site of hundreds of shipwrecks, including five German U-boats during second world war Jersey: occupied by the Nazis from 1940-45 Sport Scilly: smallest football league in the world with just two teams, Woolpack Wanderers and Garrison Gunners Jersey: fields its own team at the Commonwealth Games TV highlights Scilly: An Island Parish Jersey: Bergerac Famous visitors Scilly: former prime minister Harold Wilson regularly holidayed on Scilly and is buried at St Mary’s Old Church Jersey: Alan Whicker lives on the island Languages Scilly: English, Cornish Jersey: English, French and Jèrriais Local food and drink Scilly: pasty; “scuppered” ale Jersey: “bean crock” with cabbage bread; cider Channel Islands Weather Leo Hickman guardian.co.uk

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Ezra Klein: By Celebrating Spending Cuts, Democrats Have Opened the Door to More Austerity Measures

Click here to view this media I have to say that I’m in agreement with Ezra Klein here. After the budget deal was reached with Republicans and the President and Harry Reid came out praising the deal as some great bipartisan achievement, I felt the same way he did when he talked to Lawrence O’Donnell about it last night. All they did is validate the Republican’s agenda for more spending cuts at a time when our economy cannot afford it. And they just made it a lot harder to push back against any future austerity measures the Republicans demand when they start debating Paul Ryan’s horrible budget proposal. And as I said in my earlier post with Chris Hayes and Howard Fineman’s reaction to the budget deal, I do not understand how President Obama or the Democrats believe that alienating their base helps them win the next election. And by his base, I’m not talking about myself or liberal bloggers. I’m talking about the working class and the poor in America who voted for him in the last election, and who are going to have to live with these cuts and the job losses they’re going to cause. They look like they’re buying into the beltway Villagers’ narrative and their constant drumbeat about how looking “like an adult” and “everyone getting along” is the most important thing, as though anyone who’s just struggling to get by cares about any of that crap. They care if the policies you enact are helpful or harmful to their pocketbooks. They care about getting Americans back to work and outsourcing jobs. They care that we still have a middle class left in this country and that they’re kids might have an opportunity to do better than they have economically as they make their way through life. What they don’t care about is whether the two parties we’ve got running this country looked like they were getting along while they voted to approve horrid measures that are going to make their lives worse. I understand just as Ezra does that the President and Reid didn’t have any choice but to negotiate with the Republicans to keep from shutting down the government and they were going to have to agree to things that a lot of us weren’t going to like. But don’t go out there and make a deal for some crap sandwich where you didn’t fight harder publicly for the people you’re supposed to be representing and then tell the rest of us how good it’s supposed to taste. I don’t know if the rest of the public that doesn’t follow all of this the same way I do is going to react the same way I did to the President’s speech or what just got agreed to this week during this negotiation on the budget, but as Ezra pointed out in his piece at The Washington Post, this isn’t 1995 and if the economy doesn’t get better, Obama is not going to be remembered as a successful president. Here’s more from Klein’s post and there’s more there, so go read the whole thing, but his column pretty well just reiterates what he said in the video above with his initial reaction to this with Lawrence O’Donnell — 2011 is not 1995 : The substance of this deal is bad. But the way Democrats are selling it makes it much, much worse. The final compromise was $38.5 billion below 2010’s funding levels. That’s $78.5 billion below President Obama’s original budget proposal, which would’ve added $40 billion to 2010’s funding levels, and $6.5 billion below John Boehner’s original counteroffer, which would’ve subtracted $32 billion from 2010’s budget totals. In the end, the real negotiation was not between the Republicans and the Democrats, or even the Republicans and the White House. It was between John Boehner and the conservative wing of his party. And once that became clear, it turned out that Boehner’s original offer wasn’t even in the middle. It was slightly center-left. But you would’ve never known it from President Obama’s encomium to the agreement. Obama bragged about “making the largest annual spending cut in our history.” Harry Reid joined him, repeatedly calling the cuts “historic.” It fell to Boehner to give a clipped, businesslike statement on the deal. If you were just tuning in, you might’ve thought Boehner had been arguing for moderation, while both Obama and Reid sought to cut deeper. You would never have known that Democrats had spent months resisting these “historic” cuts, warning that they’d cost jobs and slow the recovery. So why were Reid and Obama so eager to celebrate Boehner’s compromise with his conservative members? The Democrats believe it’s good to look like a winner, even if you’ve lost. But they’re sacrificing more than they let on. By celebrating spending cuts, they’ve opened the door to further austerity measures at a moment when the recovery remains fragile. Claiming political victory now opens the door to further policy defeats later. Right now, the economy is weak. Giving into austerity will weaken it further, or at least delay recovery for longer. And if Obama does not get a recovery, then he will not be a successful president, no matter how hard he works to claim Boehner’s successes as his own. Clinton’s speeches were persuasive because the labor market did a lot of his talking for him. But when unemployment is stuck at eight percent, there’s no such thing as a great communicator. And here’s more from Krugman who agrees with Klein — Celebrating Defeat .

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Backing for dangerous cycling law

Department of Transport promises backing for bill presented on behalf of family whose daughter was killed by a cyclist The government plans to introduce a new offence of causing death by dangerous cycling following concerns that there is no suitable legislation to deal with riders who are involved in incidents such as hitting pedestrians on pavements. The Department of Transport has promised to support a bill presented to the House of Commons by Andrea Leadsom, the Tory MP for South Northamptonshire , who is campaigning on behalf of a family whose teenage daughter was struck and killed by a reckless cyclist . The move follows a significant increase in the popularity of cycling in many parts of the UK over recent years and a parallel spate of alarmist media stories about aggressive “Lycra louts”. The plans have been criticised by cycling groups who argue that such deaths are so rare that a new law is unnecessary, as well as a distraction from a far bigger threat to pedestrians posed by cars. In 2009, the last year for which road death statistics have been collated, no pedestrians were killed by cyclists whereas 426 died in collisions with motor vehicles. Cyclists can be fined for dangerous or careless cycling but more serious offences can only be dealt with under a section of the 1861 Offences Against the Person Act originally aimed at the “wanton or furious” driving of a horse-drawn carriage. Leadsom introduced a bill to the Commons last month , using as an example Rhiannon Bennett, then 17, who was killed by a speeding cyclist in 2007. The cyclist was fined £2,200 after prosecutors decided that dangerous cycling was the only appropriate charge. While such MP-sponsored bills rarely get beyond a first reading, the road safety minister, Mike Penning, has promised the Bennetts his support. Mark Wardrop, a solicitor who has been working with family, said: “He met us afterwards in the lobby and said to the effect of: we agree with your arguments, and we’re in the process of updating a lot of road traffic laws to bring them up to date. We would look at trying to tag this on to another bill if possible.” Leadsom, who is a regular cyclist, insists she only wants to clear up a legal anomaly and is not seeking to vilify fellow riders. But the national cycling group, the CTC , argues her measure is unnecessary given that courts have used the 1861 act in the last decade to jail two cyclists who killed pedestrians, while drivers routinely receive non-custodial sentences for killing cyclists. “If the Department for Transport really wants to consider this as a serious proposal, then they need to consider the use of all road traffic offences,” said Chris Peck, the CTC’s policy co-ordinator. “Currently, only around 25% of road deaths are prosecuted using causing death by careless or dangerous, or causing death while under the influence of drugs or alcohol. We have recorded dozens of cases where the deaths of vulnerable users, including many cyclists, are simply never prosecuted.” Transport policy Cycling Transport House of Commons Peter Walker guardian.co.uk

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Defiant Mubarak denies corruption

Hosni Mubarak gives first public address since his removal from power, as new wave of protests turns against military Egypt’s deposed president Hosni Mubarak has denied he stole billions of dollars from his country’s coffers, in his first public address since he was removed from power by mass protests in February. Mubarak said he would defend himself from any accusations of corruption, after a fresh wave of protests in Cairo in part to demand he be put on trial. “I will uphold all my legal rights to defend my reputation as well as that of my family,” he said in a speech broadcast on an Arab satellite news channel. “I have been, and still am, pained by what I and my family are facing from fraudulent campaigns and unfounded allegations that seek to harm my reputation, my integrity and my military and political record.” Mubarak said he held just one account with an Egyptian bank, and promised to co-operate with any investigation in order to prove that he did not have property or bank accounts abroad. He also denied similar accusations against his wealthy and once powerful sons, Alaa and Gamal. The al-Arabya news channel said the speech was recorded on Saturday in response to demonstrations in Cairo called in part to demand Egypt’s military rulers investigate the source of Mubarak’s wealth. The ruling military council, which took control of the country after Mubarak was toppled on 11 February, attempted to defuse the new wave of protests by announcing it would sack unpopular provincial governors appointed by the former president. But on Sunday more than 1,000 demonstrators rejected demands by the army to leave Tahrir Square, the heart of the uprising that brought down Mubarak. On Saturday the army opened fire on a crowd in the square, killing at least two people and wounding dozens, and on Sunday some of the demonstrators called for a new revolution. They brandished an effigy of the head of the ruling military council, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. “The people demand that the field marshal be toppled,” the protesters chanted. The soldiers’ firing on the protesters opens a breach between the military and many Egyptians who had chanted “the people and army are one” at the anti-Mubarak rallies. On Saturday they chanted “the people and people are one”, in an open rebuke to the military which some say is not moving swiftly enough to dismantle the old regime and towards democracy. The army has promised elections for parliament in September and held a referendum on a new constitution, which passed. But it has attempted to ban protests and continues to arrest and torture dissidents despite a professed commitment to freedom of speech. Ahmed el-Moqdami, who told Reuters he was in a group representing the youth of Upper Egypt, said the standoff with the army would continue. “We will continue the sit-in until our demands are met,” he said. “First of all, the field marshal must go. Mubarak must be put on trial and a civilian council must be formed for the transition period.” The military has barred Mubarak, 82, from leaving the country while the investigations continue. He has been living in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh . Hosni Mubarak Egypt Arab and Middle East unrest Middle East Chris McGreal guardian.co.uk

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I have to say, I really, really hoped that this wouldn’t happen. But as I recently noted, it sure sounds like the feds want to sidestep the state attorneys general and let the mortgage bankers off the hook . Happy to be wrong, of course, but David Dayen thinks the same thing . The states still get a whack at their group settlement: Prepare for a disappointment. As early as this week, federal bank regulators and the nation’s big banks are expected to close a deal that is supposed to address and correct the scandalous abuses. If these agreements are anything like the draft agreement recently published by the American Banker — and we believe they will be — they will be a wrist slap, at best. At worst, they are an attempt to preclude other efforts to hold banks accountable . They are unlikely to ease the foreclosure crisis. The deals grew out of last year’s investigation into robo-signing — when banks were found to have filed false documents in foreclosure cases. The report of the investigation has not been released, but we know that robo-signing was not an isolated problem. Many other abuses are well documented: late fees that are so high that borrowers can’t catch up on late payments; conflicts of interest that lead banks to favor foreclosures over loan modifications. The draft does not call for tough new rules to end those abuses. Or for ramped-up loan modifications. Or for penalties for past violations. Instead, it requires banks to improve the management of their foreclosure processes, including such reforms as “measures to ensure that staff are trained specifically” for their jobs. The banks will also have to adhere to a few new common-sense rules like halting foreclosures while borrowers seek loan modifications and establishing a phone number at which a person will take questions from delinquent borrowers . Some regulators have reportedly said that fines may be imposed later. But the gist of the terms is that from now on, banks — without admitting or denying wrongdoing — must abide by existing laws and current contracts. To clear up past violations, they are required to hire independent consultants to check a sample of recent foreclosures for evidence of improper evictions and impermissible fees. The consultants will be chosen and paid by the banks, which will decide how the reviews are conducted. Regulators will only approve the banks’ self-imposed practices. It is hard to imagine rigorous reviews, but if the consultants turn up problems, the banks are required to reimburse affected borrowers and investors as “appropriate.” It is apparently up to the banks to decide what is appropriate. It gets worse. Consumer advocates have warned that banks may try to assert that these legal agreements pre-empt actions by the states to correct and punish foreclosure abuses . Banks may also try to argue that any additional rules by the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to help borrowers would be excessive regulation. The least federal regulators could do is to stress that the agreements are not intended to pre-empt the states or undermine the consumer bureau. If they don’t, you can add foreclosure abuses to other bank outrages, like bailout-financed bonuses and taxpayer-subsidized profits.

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Yakuza overlord freed from prison

Japanese police braced for conflict with underworld as Yamaguchi-gumi head Kenichi Shinoda released after six-year sentence Police in Japan are bracing themselves for the possibility of conflict with the underworld after the head of the country’s most powerful crime syndicate was released from prison. Kenichi Shinoda was freed from the Fuchu prison, near Tokyo, on Saturday after serving a six-year sentence for firearms offences. Wearing a brown leather fedora and dark sunglasses, the 69-year-old was ushered into a waiting van shortly after dawn and taken to the western port city of Kobe, the headquarters of the Yamaguchi-gumi. Around 35,000 gangsters – 44% of Japan’s total – are members of the Yamaguchi-gumi, which has adopted a more aggressive stance under Shinoda’s leadership . Soon after he became Japan’s most powerful mafia don in July 2005 , Shinoda forged links with rival gangs and extended the Yamaguchi-gumi’s reach beyond its traditional base in western Japan. The potential for conflict has risen over the past two years amid a police crackdown on gang activities that resulted in the arrest of Shinoda’s second in command, Kiyoshi Takayama , for alleged extortion in November. Takaharu Ando, the head of the national police agency, has vowed to destroy the Yamaguchi-gumi as part of an unprecedented crackdown on organised crime. “We want them to disappear from public life,” he told reporters after being appointed in 2009. Shinoda – also known as Shinobu Tsukasa – served 13 years in prison for killing a rival with a samurai sword in the 1970s while he was the leader of the notorious Kodo-kai, a Yamaguchi-gumi affiliate based in central Japan. Japan Organised crime Justin McCurry guardian.co.uk

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Less than half Japan dead recovered

Less than half of estimated dead recovered, while Fukushima plant officials hope to stop pumping radioactive water into sea The search is continuing for victims of the tsunami that struck Japan’s north-east coast almost a month ago, while officials said they hoped to stop pumping radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant into the sea. More than 20,000 Japanese troops and 110 from the US conducted land, sea and air searches for the thousands of victims whose bodies have yet to be recovered. One month since the 11 March disaster, fewer than 13,000 of the estimated 28,000 who died have been found. The likelihood of finding more is fading because many have probably been swept out to sea. A similar search last week yielded just 70 bodies. On a visit to Ishinomaki, where 2,600 of 163,000 residents were killed and 2,800 are still missing, the prime minister, Naoto Kan, vowed to support the city’s recovery. About 17,000 people are still living in evacuation centres, while its fishing industry, which accounts for 40% of the local economy, may never fully recover. “The government will do its best to help you,” Kan said. “We will do everything we can to enable you to start fishing again.” The operation to stabilise the Fukushima plant, meanwhile, is about to enter its fifth week, with no end in sight to the world’s worst nuclear crisis since the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. Nuclear officials said they hoped to stop pumping contaminated water into the sea, amid criticism from neighbouring China and South Korea, which have accused Tokyo of incompetency in its handling of the crisis. Engineers said the build-up of radioactive water during recent attempts to cool Fukushima’s overheating reactors left them with little choice but to pump it into the ocean, where it quickly dissipates. The plant’s operator, Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco), apologised for the nuclear crisis, which has prompted the evacuation of tens of thousands of people, contaminated local food and water supplies and caused panic as far away as Tokyo, 150

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Rebels ‘failing’ as Gaddafi pushes on

Soldiers loyal to Muammar Gaddafi reach heart of strategic town of Ajdabiya, 90 miles from city at centre of revolution Muammar Gaddafi’s forces continued to fight their way toward Benghazi, the heart of Libya’s revolution, as five African leaders arrived in Tripoli in an effort to broker a ceasefire and political settlement. Rebel defences around Ajdabiya appeared to be failing as Gaddafi’s soldiers broke in to the heart of the strategic town, 90 miles from Benghazi, and engaged in running street battles after again outmanoeuvring the revolutionaries. Although western powers continued their air strikes, they did not appear to deter Gaddafi’s forces. Rebels said government forces shot down a Russian-made helicopter sent to the fight by revolutionaries only two days before. Nato forced a rebel Mig jet to land because of the UN-imposed no-fly zone. Shelling around the southern entrance to Ajdabiya continued , with loud explosions heard tand thick black spoke rising over parts of the town. Much of Ajdabiya was deserted after civilians fled amid the prospect of Gaddafi’s troops taking it for a second time in as many weeks. Thousands of rounds of discarded bullet casings littering some streets marked the site of some of the most intense shooting over the weekend. “Gaddafi’s military is in the town,” Saleh Mufta, a 25-year-old who was a science student before becoming an armed rebel, said. “There’s been a lot of shooting. Gaddafi has copied our techniques. He is not using so many tanks now after the air strikes. His men are in pick-ups. They move very fast. We don’t know where they are. They just pop up.” Burned out cars were scattered through the city, and a mosque on the edge of town appeared to have been the scene of heavy fighting. Bullets scarred much of the building. Asked what he thought the government army’s intent was, Mufta said: “They don’t want Ajdabiya. They want the road to Benghazi. They want Benghazi.” Nato faces humiliation if Gaddafi’s army is able to force its way through Ajdabiya again to threaten Benghazi, the city the western allies launched the first air strikes to defend. Other than a line of artillery about 15 miles from the city, rebel defences around Benghazi are little in evidence. The fighting continued as an African Union delegation, led by the South African president, Jacob Zuma, was to meet Gaddafi in Tripoli and then fly on to talk to the rebels in Benghazi to press for a ceasefire. Zuma has accused western powers of going against the “letter and spirit” of the UN security council resolution with the extent of air strikes and has called for Gaddafi to be allowed to leave power “with dignity”. The other members of the team include the presidents of the Congo-Brazzaville, Mali, Uganda and Mauritania. The president of Mauritania, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, said: “We hope that mediation will lead to a constructive dialogue for a political settlement of the crisis based on the aspirations of the Libyan people.” But Libya’s rebel leadership is sceptical about any political deal that does not require the immediate removal of Gaddafi from power or any ceasefire that does not require him to pull all his forces out of cities under attack, most importantly Misrata. Libya Middle East Arab and Middle East unrest Muammar Gaddafi United Nations Jacob Zuma Chris McGreal guardian.co.uk

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Frank Luntz’s Latest Talking Point — Comparing a Family’s Budget to the Government’s

Click here to view this media Here’s the latest talking point courtesy of Frank Luntz being rolled out ad nauseum by every Republican politician I’ve been on the television for some time now, and unfortunately as Digby noted, being validated by our President. Here’s a rough transcript via Digby : Frank Luntz on Fox News this morning: All the statistics that I’ve been testing on both sides, this one stands out: the increase in discretionary non-defense spending over the past four years is 80%. Does any family within the sound of my voice have an 80% increase in spending? Well that’s what Washington is doing. So if a family can’t afford an 80% increase, surely Washington can’t afford it. All the things we’ve looked at, that’s the most powerful of all. Anchor: Wow. What impact do you think the influence of the Tea party will have on the public going forward as we get set to tackle the debt ceiling and the 2012 budget dramas we have yet to see? Luntz: It’s very significant. In fact we did a project with Freedomworks over the last 96 hours where they asked the question about the shutdown,whether if it was provoked or not if you would be less likely to vote for your member of congress. The Tea Party is saying to the American people, enough is enough, stop! If families have to tighten their belts, so should Washington. If the American people have to do more with less, so should Washington. Someone let me know when households have the ability to print money, raise taxes and start wars, will you? I’m sick to death of our politicians pretending that America is broke. The upper 1% are doing just fine, thank you. Our problem is there is not the political will to ask for some “shared sacrifice” from the have-mores out there and they’re completely unwilling to do anything to protect American jobs. If these corporations want their tax cuts, tie them to job creation right here in the United States. Want to fix Social Security, raise the income cap. Want to fix the deficit, start with repealing those Bush tax cuts, now. But we can’t have that, can we? And we’ve got these propagandists like Luntz out there feeding the politicians this nonsense to justify balancing the budget off of the backs of the elderly and the poor. Just shameful. There’s more at Digby’s post so go read the whole thing, but I’ll share this last bit here. It’s kind of an odd family that goes into debt so mom and dad quit their jobs and bring in even less money in order to pay it off, but hey, what do I know about finances anyway? I guess in good Real American families when you bring in less money and beat the children the debt magically vanishes somehow. I suppose God provides. Meanwhile, I’m going to move into my car, empty out my bank account and give the money to a rich person so he’ll win the future for me. Isn’t that what all responsible families are doing right now?

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Aston Villa v Newcastle – live!

• Hit F5 or use the autorefresh tool for the latest updates • Email your thoughts to alan.gardner.casual@guardian.co.uk • All the latest league standings in our stats centre Omen? Newcastle were relegated at Villa Park on the final day of the season two years ago. Of course, that has no bearing on today but everyone keeps mentioning it so I’, just performing my churnalistic duties … Preamble: If you’re anything like me, you’ll see every new day as a fresh opportunity to get something wrong. Certainly Ged Houllier seems to have taken this approach to life at Aston Villa, blundering through a series of PR disasters that would make David Mellor cringe. But if he can engineer a reversal of Villa’s thumping at St James’ Park way back at the start of the season – at least in terms of result, if not scoreline – then Villa should be able to kick on to safety. With the likes of Darren Bent, Ashley Young and Stewart Downing in the side, Villa are a series of England-trumpet-blowing back pages waiting to happen. One win in six tells its own story but despite the squad’s infighting, at least they haven’t yet descended to this level of degeneracy (which coincidentally occurred during a fixture between these two teams six years ago last week). Newcastle are a placid lake of calm in comparison ( though the crocs are surely just below the surface ) to their hosts today, having quietly gone about their business of ensuring Premier League survival. Under Alan Pardew they have a record of P15 W5 D5 L5 in the league – just the kind of consistency that the Magpies have long craved needed. Today’s men and boys Aston Villa: Friedel, Walker, Dunne, Collins, Luke Young, Downing, Petrov, Makoun, Ashley Young, Agbonlahor, Bent. Subs: Marshall, Pires, Albrighton, Heskey, Reo-Coker, Clark, Cuellar. Newcastle: Harper, Simpson, Steven Taylor, Williamson, Jose Enrique, Barton, Guthrie, Coloccini, Gutierrez, Ranger, Lovenkrands. Subs: Krul, Ryan Taylor, Ferguson, Donaldson, Tavernier, Richardson, Kuqi. Today’s scapegoat Stuart Attwell (Warwickshire) Premier League Aston Villa Newcastle United Alan Gardner guardian.co.uk

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