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• UK gets all-clear for Friday and weekend • 700 flights estimated cancelled • BA says test flight through red zone “found nothing” 3.22pm: Dr Andy Hooper, a professor at Delft University of Technology, says that we are entering a phase of increased eruptions from Icelandic volcanoes, partly because ice caps are shrinking which decreases pressure on the hot mantle material beneath that feeds the Icelandic eruptions: The number of eruptions from volcanoes beneath the largest ice cap called Vatnajökull (including Grímsvötn) seems to wax and wane with a cycle of about 140 years. There are up to three eruptions per decade producing significant ash in active times and less than one in periods of low activity. In fact between 1940 and 1980 there were no such eruptions from these volcanoes, and there have now been 4 within 15 years. But perhaps more importantly than the number of eruptions, the intensity of eruptions also can increase in times of high activity, meaning that the height of the ash and the chances of ash reaching Europe increases. He says that the risk posed by a major fissure eruption, which have occurred only twice in the last 800 years, both during periods of high volcanic activity, is much worse than the effect on air traffic: The Laki fissure eruption in 1783 killed perhaps a quarter of the Icelandic population and led to the deaths of thousands throughout Europe due to poisoning and extreme cold. While we might expect to mitigate the direct effect of poisoning in modern times, the climatic effects could still be devastating on crops. On top of all this, ice caps have been shrinking since the late 19th century – Vatnajokull has decreased in mass over this time by an estimated 400 billion tonnes. This leads to a decrease in pressure on the hot mantle material beneath that feeds the Icelandic eruptions, leading to the generation of extra magma. In fact as the last ice age ended, volcanism was 30 times higher than at present. Perhaps our one saving grace, in the short term, at least, is that it may take quite some time for this extra magma to find its way to the surface. 2.46pm: Good news. It looks like the all-clear for Friday and the beginning of half-term, provided Grimsvötn keeps a lid on it. According to a briefing just issued to the UK aviation industry, the Met Office is sure that forecasts of a dense ash cloud covering the UK on Friday are no longer correct because the volcano has stopped erupting. As a consequence, the UK is likely to be covered in low-density ash on Friday, which means any UK airline can operate. The Met Office is going to re-run its forecasting model around 6pm in order to produce a more definitive picture. An aviation industry source added an interesting point: US and middle eastern airlines would have taken off and landed in the UK and Friday anyway because they do not use Met Office forecasts and their charts, produced by the WSI corporation, apparently showed no high density ash over the UK. So British Airways and Virgin Atlantic would have been grounded while Emirates and American Airlines flew off into the sunset. 2.36pm: The British Geological Survey is collecting information from the public on volcanic ash observations across the UK from the Grimsvötn eruption. It is keen for people to record their observations within the next 24 hours. A simple questionnaire has been developed with questions like “Have you seen ash/dust on your car windscreen?” and “Have you smelt sulphur (rotten eggs)?” A map showing real-time survey results can be viewed on the website. The BGS says responses to the survey will help it to confirm the results of ash dispersion models on which the flight cancellations are based. Samples of ash are also being collected from across the country and will be analysed to provide further insight into the types of ash that are reaching the UK. 2.19pm: Despite dissent from some airlines, the Airport Operators Association has applauded the spirit of co-operation within the aviation industry that it claims to have witnessed in recent days. Darren Caplan, AOA chief executive, said that under previous guidelines the Grimsvötn eruption would have shut down UK airspace. The degree of collaboration between the scientists, weather experts, the regulators CAA, air traffic control services NATS, Eurocontrol, and the airlines and airports has been unprecedented. And many people throughout the industry have worked extremely hard throughout day and night to provide the forecasts necessary to enable regulators and airlines to make risk assessment about whether to fly or not. 1.13pm: Here’s a summary of the latest developments: • Airports in Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen have reopened after being closed this morning as the ash cloud cleared UK skies but caused disruption in Germany. European air traffic controllers predicted that 700 flights would be cancelled today but said European airspace could be back to normal on Thursday. Airlines have accused the German authorities of being overly-cautious •  Willie Walsh, the head of British Airways and Iberia, echoed criticism by Ryanair of the UK’s handling of the challenges posed by the volcanic ash , claiming that one of BA’s planes said flew through an ash “red zone” (i.e. containing high density ash) for 45 minutes over Scotland and northern England and “found nothing”. • Diminishing eruption from Grimsvötn is prompting the Met Office to”urgently” reconsider forecasts that predict a plume of high density ash over the UK on Friday at a height of 35,000 feet and above, according to aviation sources. • Airlines are lobbying the Civil Aviation Authority for changes to the ash regulations, which prevent “underflying” the cloud. This would prevent aircraft at Heathrow airport taking off and landing even though the cloud is 35,000 feet above them and not in danger of being reached. It is understood that the Civil Aviation Authority is looking at the policy right now. • The UK government is seeking to borrow an atmosphere-monitoring plane from Ireland or Germany because the one it has ordered – specifically for ash purposes – won’t be ready until July. 1.10pm: Both of the Berlin airports have now reopen with flights boarding. 1.06pm: The Icelandic website Vísir has a picture of Grimsvötn showing only steam rising out of the crater. It says: The eruption in Grimsvötn seems to be all but over. Eyewitnesses who ventured close to the crater reported this morning that the activity is almost non-existent. Scientists are on their way in an airplane to assess the situation but as it stands it seems like the volcano has stopped spewing ash into the atmosphere. United Archives has spectacular photos of the same volcano erupting in 1998 . 12.42pm: A message on the Hamburg airport website says ” flight operations can resume at Hamburg Airport from today, May 25st, 12:00 mid-day” (11am BST). But it adds: Until flight schedules have returned to normal, however, it is possible that operations will be limited. And its departures board currently looks like this By contrast the departure boards of the Berlin airports, which were supposedly closed until 2pm (1pm BST) are listing some flights for check-in. 12.29pm: The Icelandic prime minister, Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir, has declared that the Grimsvötn eruption is on the wane. She said: The worst is over and now the clean-up can begin. Our geoscientists say that the eruption is waning day by day and that the problems arising in our neighbouring countries as a result of volcanic ash should be resolved quickly.economic pursuits to normal. 11.56am: Navair, responsible for air traffic control services in Denmark, says a small area in Danish airspace will be closed until 4pm UK time but this should not affect “regular traffic in Danish airspace”: Based on the forecasts for the ash cloud spread, the Danish Authorities has closed the airspace which lies below 6 km altitude in the south-western part of Northsea. 11.44am: EasyJet says Hamburg airport is to remain closed until 2pm UK time while Berlin Schönefeld will remain closed until at least 1pm UK time . It says it is offering passengers on cancelled flights free transfers and refunds online. 11.15am: The Guardian’s northern editor, Martin Wainwright, has news of a couple of two-time volcano victims: Travellers disrupted at northern England’s airports by the Grimsvotn eruption had some compensation in the form of strikingly beautiful sunsets caused by ash clouds high in the sky. The Tees valley and rural Northumbria round Newcastle upon Tyne’s airport at Ponteland were bathed in a golden glow with streaks of red and vermillion at dusk. The spectacle was even more dramatic in Iceland itself but proved small consolation for two north-easterners stuck in the capital Reykjavik who have become volcano victims for the second time. Catherine Coulter, a 26-year-old events manager from Gateshead, and her partner Christophe Duhaut were due back at work on Monday but remain in Iceland after the grounding of all flights from Keflavik airport. Last year their dream trip-of-a-lifetime was cancelled because of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption. Coulter said that it was “bizarre to watch the ash cloud spreading from so nearby.” The couple were out enjoying Iceland’s snowfields when Grimsvotn burst, but are now waiting in Reykjavik for the first UK-bound flight to be allowed out. 11.03am: Dr David Rothery, from the Open University’s Volcano Dynamics Group, says the main ash-producing phrase of the eruption has ceased for the time being: Most ash emitted by Grimsvötn in the past couple of days has been blown northwards, and the earlier ash that was blown over Scotland has now passed. Shortly after midnight seismic tremor at Grimsvötn began a rapid decline suggesting supply of magma and gas to the volcano was ending, and by 7am BST the eruption column could no longer be seen on radar. I am cautiously optimistic that the main ash-producing phase of this eruption has now ceased. However it will be back – next week, next year, or more likely next decade. There are other volcanoes in Iceland capable of producing ash clouds worse than we have experienced this week. As a frequent flyer I am glad that the regulatory authorities and the airline industry are better prepared than they were last year, and that almost all airlines seem still willing to err on the side of caution. 11.00am: The Guardian has a live online Q&A at 2pm on volcanic ash clouds. You can post your questions now . The experts answering all your queries about the potential impact of the ash cloud are: • John A Stevenson, postdoctoral research fellow in the School of Geosciences at Edinburgh University, UK. His work explores the types of volcanic eruption and weather conditions that can result in ash from Icelandic volcanoes being deposited in Scotland and across northern Europe. Over the past few days he has been posting regular updates on the Grímsvötn eruption on his blog . • Colin Brown, director of engineering at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers. In his previous job, worked on aircraft engines at Rolls Royce. He has been tracking the progress of the ash cloud. 10.45am: The Guardian’s Germany correspondent, Helen Pidd, writes that the country’s flight bans could be lifted this afternoon. The ash cloud is causing misery for travellers travelling to and from northern Germany today. Hamburg and Bremen airports were shut in the early hours and at 11am local time (10am GMT), the airspace above Berlin was closed. No landings or takeoffs are expected at either of the capital’s two airports until at least 2pm local time, said the German air traffic control body, Deutsche Flugsicherung (DFS). On a normal Wednesday, Berlin Schönefeld and Tegel airports handle 700 flights a day. Bremen airport has since opened and Hamburg is expected to follow suit at midday local time. The German government has been responding to accusations that has been overly cautious, says Helen: German transport minister Peter Ramsauer said he expected the flight bans to be lifted on Wednesday afternoon because there were no major ash concentrations heading towards Germany and that the skies should be clear once the present cloud had passed. The minister said in a TV interview there was a “solid legal basis” for the flight ban, which has been criticised as too draconian by airlines. Other European countries have adopted the German guideline of banning flights when the concentration of ash exceeds 2,000 micrograms per cubic meter. “Safety comes first,” Ramsauer told the public ARD TV network on Wednesday morning. 10.36am: Has anyone got a spare volcanic ash-monitoring plane? The government is seeking to borrow an atmosphere-monitoring plane from Ireland or Germany because the one it has ordered – specifically for ash purposes – won’t be ready until July. Yesterday the International Air Transport Association wrote to the transport secretary, Philip Hammond, to bemoan the lack of monitoring aircraft. In the meantime, the UK government is relying on the likes of British Airways and Ryanair to monitor the cloud. BA has dutifully passed on its findings to the Civil Aviation Authority, while Ryanair is broadcasting its findings via block bookings of Michael O’Leary on Sky News. 10.35am: Here is a round-up of some of the airlines whose services are being affected by the ash cloud (most of it has come via the useful UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office website ): • British Airways is advising customers travelling to and from Germany to check the status of their flight before travelling. •  KLM has cancelled flights to and from the UK, Norway, Sweden and Germany. • Eastern Airways has cancelled three flights (Durham Tees Valley to Southampton, Humberside to Aberdeen and East Midlands to Aberdeen). • EasyJet has cancelled 15 flights. The airline recommends anyone flying from the following airports should check the status of their flight before travelling to the airport: Amsterdam, Dortmund, Berlin, Copenhagen or Hamburg. • BMI has cancelled flights to and from Hanover and Berlin. • Ryanair flights to and from Bremen, Lubeck, Magdeburg and Berlin are cancelled. • Emirates has cancelled flights between Dubai and Hamburg . 10.07am: Eurocontrol, which coordinates and plans air traffic control for all of Europe, says it expects 700 flights to be cancelled today but ash clouds appear to be dissipating quickly due to reduced activity from Grímsvötn and airspace could be back to normal on Thursday, AP reports . 9.54am: A crumb of comfort for people affected by the ash cloud comes from my colleague Mark King: Hire car company Avis has said it will waive the non-cancellation fee on all bookings during the period of travel disruption caused by the volcanic ash cloud. It said any car rental bookings that have been pre-paid and are due to be collected during the affected period will also be fully reimbursed. Customers can claim their refunds by contacting their local Avis customer service department on: www.avis.co.uk, telephone 08445446666 or email customer.service@avis.co.uk 9.48am: Aviation industry sources said the Met Office is “urgently” reconsidering forecasts that predict a plume of high density ash over the UK on Friday , at a height of 35,000 feet and above. Apparently the nation’s weather forecasters, much maligned over the past 24 hours, believe that the diminishing eruption from Grimsvötn will result in less ash getting into the air at the end of the week. As a result, the effect on the UK could be less drastic. We should know better by 2pm. Meanwhile, airlines are lobbying the Civil Aviation Authority for changes to the ash regulations, which prevent “underflying” the cloud. This would prevent aircraft at Heathrow airport taking off and landing even though the cloud is 35,000 feet above them and not in danger of being reached. It is understood that the Civil Aviation Authority is looking at the policy right now. 9.40am: Willie Walsh, who was very critical of the flight ban as a result of the eruption from the Eyjafjallajökull last year is at it again : The head of British Airways and Iberia has joined the clamour over the handling of the volcanic ash cloud this morning after claiming that a BA test flight “found nothing” after flying through a smoke plume deemed by regulators to be too dangerous for normal commercial flights. Echoing criticism from Ryanair, Willie Walsh said the plane flew through an ash “red zone” for 45 minutes over Scotland and northern England and encountered no difficulties. The chief executive of International Airlines Group, the parent of Britain and Spain’s national carrier, spoke as the cloud from the Grímsvötn volcano moved away from UK airspace and began to affect travel in Germany. Walsh told BBC4′s Today programme that the flight operated at different altitudes, through a zone designated by the Met Office to contain high densities of ash – a level at which no commercial carrier has received safety clearance to operate. “Initially it flew over the north of England, Newcastle, Glasgow, Edinburgh, back to Newcastle. The aircraft then returned and has been examined. All the filters were removed and will be sent to a laboratory for testing. The simple answer is that we found nothing.” 9.26am: Ryanair’s battle with the regulators has dragged into this morning, with the Irish Aviation Authority saying that it is “still” assessing the airline’s request to fly through medium-density ash. This delay forced Ryanair to cancel its Scottish flights yesterday, and you can imagine the language that Michael O’Leary is using in calls to the IAA. According to the ash regulations, Dublin-registered Ryanair cannot fly passengers through the plume without clearance from the IAA. No wonder O’Leary, Ryanair’s boss, is getting upset. 9.23am: The Grimsvötn volcano has stopped erupting, according to UK weather officials. More details soon. 9.10am: Good morning. Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the disruption caused by the Grimsvötn volcano. Here’s a summary of the latest developments: • Flights at UK airports have largely returned to normal after high levels of volcanic ash from the Icelandic eruption cleared UK skies . • The problem has moved to Germany where Berlin’s Tegel and Schoenefeld airports both closed at 9am UK time (11am local time). EasyJet said Hamburg airport would be closed until 2pm UK time and Ryanair said it had axed all its flights in and out of the German airports of Bremen, Lubeck and Magdeburg until 1pm UK time. • British Airways said it flew a test flight in the red zone (areas of high density ash with more than 4,000 micrograms per cubic metre) for about 45 minutes at different altitudes over Scotland and “found nothing” . Iceland volcano 2011 (Grimsvotn) Iceland Natural disasters and extreme weather Airline industry Air transport Travel & leisure Germany Haroon Siddique Dan Milmo guardian.co.uk