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enlarge Credit: Cook Political Report Since the filibuster reform topic seems to be heating up, it might be worth a look at what the future holds in 2012. Democrats have 22 seats up for grabs (including Independents); Republicans have 10. Of those 22 Dem/I seats, at least 5 are tossups as to whether they’ll remain Democrat or turn over to Republicans. Here’s the list of all seats up in 2012, via Daily Kos and the current Cook rating for 2012 : Daniel Akaka (D-HI) – Likely D John Barasso (R-WY) – Solid R Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) – Likely D Sherrod Brown (D-OH) – Lean D Scott Brown (R-MA) – Toss Up Maria Cantwell (D-WA) – Likely D Benjamin Cardin (D-MD) – Solid D Thomas Carper (D-DE) – Solid D Robert Casey (D-PA) – Likely D Kent Conrad (D-ND) – Likely D Bob Corker (R-TN) – Solid R John Ensign (R-NV) – Toss Up Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) – Solid D Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) – Solid D Orrin Hatch (R-UT) – Solid R Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) – Solid R Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) – Solid D Herb Kohl (D-WI) Solid D Jon Kyl (R-AZ) Solid R Joe Lieberman (I-CT) Lean D Richard Lugar (R-IN) Solid R Joe Manchin (D-WV) – Toss Up Claire McCaskill (D-MO) Lean D Bob Menendez (D-NJ) Solid D Bill Nelson (D-FL) Lean D * Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Solid D (Sanders caucuses w/Ds) Olympia Snowe (R-ME) Likely R Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) Likely D Jon Tester (D-MT) Likely D Jim Webb (D-VA) Toss Up Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) Solid D Roger Wicker (R-MS) Solid R *Rumors are already swirling about Jeb Bush challenging Nelson in FL That’s a daunting list. We already know the damage the Citizens United decision had on 2010, and that was with about ten months to prepare. Now there’s two years. Two years for corporate interests to nominate their challenger to every single Democrat on that list. Granted, challenging isn’t the same as winning, but I think we’d better pay attention now, rather than getting caught flat-footed a year from now. The national Democrats (DSCC and DCCC) were incredibly ineffective at finding and fielding candidates. Far too many House seats went unchallenged, and when there was a viable challenger, they received absolutely no help from the national organizations. My district would have had a decent shot at a solid Democratic representative to replace our useless Republican, but he had no funding from the national party level at all. The state did what they could, but even a few ads would have been helpful. They also underestimated the value of a strong message. Instead of running from what they’d done, they should have wrapped their arms around it. They let the entire narrative be carried by the tea party and their corporate paymasters in far too many states. Harry Reid’s campaign was an exception but it could have had a far different outcome with a different opponent. Over in Kentucky, there was a real lesson to be learned from John Yarmuth. Yes, in the land of Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell, a progressive Democrat won and a BlueDog lost . Whatever form filibuster reform in the Senate takes, I’m hoping they’re considering it under a worst-case scenario where Republicans challenge hard and manage to snatch enough Senate seats away for a majority in 2012. As much as I loathe the current 60-vote majority rule, I would loathe a lesser requirement with a Republican majority even more.