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Turmoil in a state western counter-terrorism agencies have been able to rely on could have ‘far-reaching consequences’ Egypt has the potential to take Pakistan’s place as the country posing the greatest threat to Britain’s security, intelligence analysts said today. Political turmoil in a state western counter-terrorism agencies have been able to rely on would also have “far-reaching consequences for the Arab-Israel relationship and regional instability”, a former senior intelligence official said. There would also be serious implications for European security, yet neither Europe nor the US could influence events in Egypt now, analysts warned. EU countries, including Britain, have been promoting the cause of political and judicial reform as they have in other countries, including Afghanistan. But European governments, and their security and intelligence agencies in particular, have wanted stability above all. “They have to talk the talk, but don’t expect [reform] to happen,” is how one observer described their attitude. Now some more acute officials say reform is needed but not too quickly. John Sawers, head of MI6 and a former British ambassador to Egypt, in the first public speech of a serving head of Britain’s foreign intelligence service, referring to the “Islamic world”, said: “Over time moving to a more open system of government in these countries, one more responsive to people’s grievances, will help. “But if we demand an abrupt move to the pluralism that we in the west enjoy, we may undermine the controls that are now in place. Terrorists would end up with new opportunities.” Rosemary Hollis, professor of Middle East policy studies at City University, London, suggested the view of western intelligence officials or diplomats would be: “Senior military people should quietly tell him [Mubarak], ‘We need a more benign version of you.’” Egypt Middle East Pakistan Global terrorism Richard Norton-Taylor guardian.co.uk