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Egyptian president need only remember 1952 to see what happens when the armed forces turn on those in power Egypt’s armed forces stand at the centre of the country’s drama, urged by pro-democracy protesters to defend them while commanders strive to ensure their status, power and influence are preserved once Hosni Mubarak has gone. As troops in Cairo’s Tahrir Square moved against pro-Mubarak loyalists , opposition leader Muhammad ElBaradei called on the army to intervene. The US and EU made clear they wanted to see the military act to maintain order. With veteran intelligence chief Omar Suleiman installed as vice-president, analysts predict key figures such as the defence minister, Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, and the chief of staff, Lieutenant General Sami Einan, may yet move to persuade Mubarak to step down before September’s presidential elections, as he has now pledged. “These men are all old friends and I would not be surprised if they are able to convince Mubarak that he needs to go and have more urgent medical treatment in Germany,” said a former senior western official. “Whatever it looks like on TV, Mubarak is finished.” Tantawi has been in contact with the US defence secretary, Robert Gates. The countries have a strategic relationship worth $1.3bn (£800m) a year in military assistance to Egypt that is seen as “untouchable compensation” for making and maintaining peace with Israel. Suleiman and Einan are well regarded in the US. Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, reportedly praised the Egyptian army for its “professionalism” after speaking to Einan. The Egyptian army’s influence is not new. With nearly 500,000 men it is the world’s 10th largest. Egypt’s 1952 revolution, which overthrew the monarchy, was carried out by Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser and his fellow “free officers”. Anwar Sadat and Mubarak – a former air force commander – kept it powerful through the 1967 and 1973 wars. In recent years the high command is known to have been unhappy with the idea that Mubarak might be succeeded by his businessman son Gamal, not least out of concern that his liberalising agenda and private sector cronies would undermine their own extensive economic interests. Military-owned companies run by retired generals are active in the water, olive oil, cement, construction, hotel and petrol industries. Large tracts of land are owned by the military in the Nile Delta and on the Red Sea, apparently a benefit in exchange for the military ensuring regime stability and security. Retired officers often fill top civilian jobs in key ministries, though privatisation has forced military-owned companies to improve the quality of their work. Recent US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks paint a picture of an institution facing severe internal challenges and a decline in status. Tantawi, at 85 even older than the president, is referred to by contemptuous junior officers as “Mubarak’s poodle”, according to a 2008 report. “In the cabinet, where he still wields significant influence, Tantawi has opposed both economic and political reforms that he perceives as eroding central government power,” the cable says. “He is supremely concerned with national unity, and has opposed policy initiatives he views as encouraging political or religious cleavages within Egyptian society.”In another dispatch the US embassy quoted “academics and civilian analysts [who] painted a portrait of an Egyptian military in intellectual and social decline, whose officers have largely fallen out of society’s elite ranks. They describe a disgruntled mid-level officer corps harshly critical of a defence minister they perceive as incompetent and valuing loyalty above skill in his subordinates. However, analysts perceive the military as retaining strong influence through its role in ensuring regime stability and operating a large network of commercial enterprises.” Egypt Hosni Mubarak Protest Middle East Ian Black guardian.co.uk