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Stephen Harper’s Conservatives won a majority, but the historic losses of the Liberals and Bloc Québécois are more startling For all its faults (and I’m in favour of electoral reform, for what it’s worth), at least you think you know where you stand with the first past the post system. You get majority governments, with the executive dominating the legislature, and stable (or stagnant) two-party systems, concentrating power overwhelmingly in the hands of the few. But just as the UK prepares for a referendum on our electoral system this week, Canada’s elections Monday – in which Stephen Harper’s Conservatives gained a majority , and the official opposition party changed from the Liberals to the New Democratic party – shows perhaps more than ever the surprises this system can still throw up when traditional voting patterns shift. Stephen Harper’s Conservative rule up until this point was already something of an anomaly, with his previous terms in office under a minority government. In retrospect, it’s astonishing that Harper dominated the political landscape through much of the 2000s despite the fact that the Conservative party hadn’t won a majority since 1988. In March, when the government was found to be in contempt of parliament – another precedent in the Commonwealth parliamentary system – Harper’s government fell, forcing the 2 May elections . The results of the election now give him four years of full-blown Conservative rule, a fact that hasn’t been welcomed by those who see him as Canada’s George Bush: Naomi Klein tweeted that a “hair-raising shock doctrine is coming our way”, as Harper now has the mandate to pursue his cuts to welfare provision and what many see as his support of environmental destruction (bear in mind that one of Harper’s milder actions on the environment was to dismiss the Kyoto protocol a “socialist scheme” . But as Harper assumes office as the leader of a majority government, the composition of the parliament looks almost unrecognisable. Not only have the Liberals lost their position as the main party of opposition, but the party leader, the once seemingly indomitable Michael Ignatieff lost his own seat in what’s being described as an ‘historical collapse’ of the Liberals, previously one of Canada’s two main parties. In a strange parallel to this collapse of the Liberals, the Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe is resigning after losing his own riding , while the Bloc Québécois’ support has imploded to the point where it is hard to image the Québec sovereignty movement resurfacing as a national issue (can you be a “bloc” when you only have four seats in parliament?). This unprecedented shift in voting patterns is largely due to the ascendancy of the New Democratic party. The rise of “Jack Mania” – at least, in Québec – for the NDP’s leader Jack Layton could be seen in some ways as Canada’s 2011 “I agree with Nick” moment: the Conservatives focused most of their campaigning energies on attacking the Liberals and Ignatieff , with the NDP poised to position themselves as the new viable alternative to the Conservatives, as well as sweeping up protest votes to the Bloc Quebecois . One of the key points of the Conservative campaign to finally secure a majority was built on the premise that another Conservative minority government – which looked possible in the early stages of the campaign – would create a cumbersome coalition of opposition parties . This doesn’t sound much like the rhetoric used in first past the post system election campaigns: citing the spectre of unwieldy coalitions to implore the voters to – this time round, please – elect a majority government. Perhaps the most optimistic parallel between last year’s UK election and the sudden reshaping of Canada’s political landscape this week is the rise of Elizabeth May, who has just become the first Green MP to be elected to Canadian parliament – and who, like Caroline Lucas, was not invited to the televised campaign debate . May’s voice will be sorely needed in opposition to Harper’s conservative vision, and her victory, like Caroline Lucas’s, was a triumph over the first past the post system under which parties like the Green party lose out. Although the UK’s 2010 election and Canada’s 2011 election produced vastly different outcomes – one a period of coalition government, the other ending a of minority government rule – the two elections show that first past the post doesn’t ensure a stable two-party system; actual votes still bend the structure in dynamic ways. On his day of legitimate victory under Canada’s electoral system, perhaps Harper would prefer it if we didn’t notice that one of the interesting parallels is that, for most of his rule so far, Harper’s Conservative party, like David Cameron’s Conservative party now, didn’t have a majority. In any case, now Harper finally has his majority, the image of Canada as America’s liberal, progressive neighbour might – like Ignatieff and the Bloc Québécois – also suddenly drop off the political radar. Canada Stephen Harper Michael Ignatieff United States Liberal-Conservative coalition David Cameron Nick Clegg Electoral reform First past the post AV referendum Heather McRobie guardian.co.uk