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Embarrassment in Scotland for Labour as Lib Dem and Conservative voters defect to Alex Salmond’s party Alex Salmond is on the brink of a landslide victory in the Holyrood elections after the first declarations and returns saw a significant swing to the Scottish National party across the country. The scale of the likely victory was underlined when the SNP won the prize seat of East Kilbride, toppling Labour’s finance spokesman Andy Kerr with a swing of 6.6%, increasing its share of the vote by 10%. The SNP also won Hamilton, defeating another senior Labour figure, Tom McCabe, with an 11% swing. McCabe had held the seat since 1999. Labour held the first seat to declare, Rutherglen. Liberal Democrats officials conceded their party could face a disastrous night, after voters deserted the party in large numbers. In the first seats to declare, their share of the vote fell 15%. With several hours before formal declarations, the Lib Dems predicted they would lose at least two of their three seats in Edinburgh after the SNP support across the city surged far more than expected. Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP deputy leader, said that she was “cautiously optimistic” about holding Glasgow Southern against a strong Labour challenge. The new seat is the closest to her previous seat, Glasgow Govan, but after boundary changes was a notional Labour win. She said: “These are really truly stunning results … and they augur well for the SNP.” With Labour braced for other defeats in west Scotland, candidates and officials insisted their vote had been strong in many seats. However Iain Gray, Labour leader in Scotland, conceded that the SNP had been the greatest beneficiary of a collapse in the Lib Dem vote. His seat of East Lothian was “very tight”, adding: “I think the same thing is happening here as has happened in many parts of Scotland. What we’re seeing is a complete and utter collapse of the Lib Dem vote and a significant loss of the Tory vote as well, and that has coalesced with the SNP. That seems to be happening from the early evidence.” Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Tory leader, conceded her party was also facing losing seats with the SNP surge. Tory officials admitted that the party’s campaign director David McLetchie was under severe pressure from the SNP in Edinburgh Pentlands. “It sounds like it will be a very challenging night,” she said. The final results for Holyrood’s 129 seats will only be known later on Friday, with 56 seats decided on the regional lists which are the last to be counted. Labour’s embarrassing defeats came despite an intensive effort to mobilise its supporters on polling day. Gordon Brown and his wife Sarah were out campaigning and meeting Labour voters in two seats in the former prime minister’s heartland of Fife, Dunfermline and Glenrothes, and also in a key Labour target seat held by the SNP justice secretary, Kenny MacAskill, in Edinburgh Eastern. The Browns and other senior Labour figures, including the former Chancellor Alistair Darling, joined a “volunteer army” of about 10,000 Labour activists who ferried voters by car to polling stations, visited floating voters at home and manning street stalls in key seats. The last ditch effort was organised after several late opinion polls suggested that Labour was cutting the SNP’s significant lead which had emerged over the last month. The final YouGov poll of the campaign, released on Wednesday evening, suggested the SNP would win for a second successive time and take 54 seats compared to 46 for Labour. Salmond is bullish about his chances of holding a referendum on Scottish independence in 2014 or 2015, with the support of the Greens and potentially the Lib Dems. In 2007, the SNP won by a one seat margin over Labour, taking 47 seats against 46 for Labour, in the closest contest in the devolved parliament’s short history. In Wales the picture was far more encouraging for Labour. The party won back its heartland seat of Blaenau Gwent with a handsome majority. It had been held by an independent member, Trish Law, widow of the late Peter Law, who left Labour in protest at the imposition of an all-women shortlists. But, as expected, it was taken back by Labour’s Alun Davies with 12,926 votes. Independent candidate Jayne Sullivan won 3,806 votes. The Liberal Democrats did badly, with only 367 votes, while the British National party took almost 1,000 votes. Party activists were expecting further gains and an improvement on the 26 seats it held at the last assembly, but insiders accepted they may not reach the crucial figure of 31 needed to claim an overall majority. The electoral system makes it difficult for anyone to get a majority. David Davies, chair of the Cardiff West constituency Labour party, said it would be a good result if Labour could get around 29 of the 60 seats. Plaid Cymru, Labour’s coalition partner over the last four years, was preparing itself for a tough set of results. Its director of elections, Ian Titherington said he expected his party to lose seats; and, even before the results began to come in, the Plaid leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones, was facing questions about his leadership. The final make-up of the assembly will not be known until later on Friday because north Wales decided not to count until the morning. If Labour does not win an overall majority, the deal-making and horse trading will begin as the parties try to find partners to work with. Scottish politics Scotland Scottish National Party (SNP) Welsh politics Wales Plaid Cymru Local elections 2011 Local politics Elections 2011 Local elections Local government Labour Liberal Democrats Severin Carrell Steven Morris guardian.co.uk