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Bleak assessment of ‘uncomfortable realities’ as poll finds European centre left lacking credibility Labour is facing a deep crisis that threatens its survival as a party of power, Ed Milibandwill be warned, on Wednesday as he is told to avoid the “politics of protest” and to focus on establishing political credibility. In a bleak description of the challenge facing Labour, one of the main authors of its general election manifesto says it will become a serious contender for power only by facing “uncomfortable realities”. Patrick Diamond, who helped write the manifesto with Miliband, makes his intervention before a conference in Oslo for European centre-left leaders, which the Labour leader will attend on Thursday and Friday. In a joint article for the Guardian’s Comment is free , written with Olaf Cramme, director of the Policy Network thinktank, which is organising the Oslo conference, Diamond writes: “Labour’s ejection from office mirrors an even starker European trend, as the pendulum has swung aggressively against the left. Local council victories last Thursday cannot disguise the governing crisis which threatens Labour’s very survival as a party of power.” Policy Network, founded by Lord Mandelson, is to publish the findings of a YouGov opinion poll that shows a public lack of confidence in the ability of the European centre-left to govern for the mainstream. The poll was conducted in the US and in Britain, Germany and Sweden – three European countries where the centre left has suffered major setbacks in recent years. It found: • A lack of faith in the ability of governments to stand up to vested interests – just 16% believed they could in the UK, 21% in Germany and 27% in Sweden. This leads to scepticism about the ability of government-led action to improve societies, with 29% in the UK and 27% in Germany questioning whether governments can be an effective force. • A strong belief among centre-right voters that centre-left governments tax too much, with not enough public benefit. Over two-thirds of Tory voters (68%) and 30% of Liberal Democrats believe this. • Pessimism about the benefits of a university degree. Scepticism is highest in Britain (79%), with the deepest reservations among the 18- to 24-year-olds (83%) and the over-60s (88%). Diamond and Cramme argue that the centre-left needs to adjust its thinking if it wants to return to government. “There is simply no substitute for hard thinking and engagement with uncomfortable realities,” they write. “This is a precondition of becoming a serious contender for power.” In a document for the Progressive Governance Conference, the thinktank warns that centre-left parties have failed to adjust to deep concerns about the scale of fiscal deficits. It says the centre-left is failing to persuade voters it can govern effectively, creating a “governing crisis” as opposed to a less serious “electoral crisis”. The Policy Network document says: “The predicament facing the European left has to be understood as a governing crisis, not merely an electoral crisis. There is little sense of a coherent ideological programme through which social democrats might govern in the future in a world transformed irrevocably by the global financial crisis. It is not simply that social democrats have failed to win elections at the national level. Rather, it is the lack of public confidence that social democrats have a clear idea of what to do with power when they win.” The document adds: “Over the last two years, the recurring question has been why, in the midst of a crisis whose origins clearly implicate the neoliberal right, it is social democrats who appear battle weary and defensive. The cause of the left’s malaise is now increasingly apparent. “The economic crisis which began with a wave of sub-prime lending in the United States has hastily been redefined as a crisis of public debt and government deficits. In other words, it is the question of the state – its size, its role, its efficiency – that has become the central issue, not the inherent instability of markets and free-market ideology.” Cramme issues a warning to Miliband, who has faced criticism among Blairites for appearing to liken the campaign against the cuts to the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa when he spoke at the TUC rally in Hyde Park. “In a period of economic hardship, it is tempting for social democratic parties to align themselves with the politics of protest,” the director of the Mandelson thinktank writes. “It is of course imperative that we prevent an economic crisis from becoming a social crisis through mass unemployment, welfare retrenchment and deep cuts in public services. The left can best do this, however, if it is in government, able to engage with hard realities and tough choices.” Labour Ed Miliband Nicholas Watt guardian.co.uk