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Polls say AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan could score a crushing victory with up to 50% of the vote in Sunday’s election From a five-storey billboard on the Tarlabasi Boulevard in downtown Istanbul, Turkey’s prime minister is making some typically bombastic promises. Vote for me, says a shirt-sleeved Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the traffic-congested megalopolis will be rewarded with a third airport and a third bridge across the Bosphorus. The pledges are just two examples of what even Erdogan describes as his “crazy projects” – the most memorable of which is probably his plan to build a mega-canal in Istanbul linking the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara . The 57-year-hopes his grand designs will ensure that he not only wins a third term in Sunday’s national elections, but is elected with such a “supermajority” that he would be able to singlehandedly rewrite Turkey’s heavily criticised constitution in his own favour. Pollsters say his Justice and Development party (AKP) is likely to triumph with up to 50% of the vote, leaving the main opposition Republican People’s party (CHP) trailing at 28%. The extent of Erdogan’s victory will have wide repercussions for this country of 74 million people straddling east and west. Round the corner from the gargantuan poster, barber Hasan Keke cites Erdogan’s infrastructure projects when explaining his approval of the prime minister. Keke says everyday life has got easier since Erdogan took power in 2003. “I’ll give you an example,” says Keke, as he gives a customer a cut-throat shave. “In 2002, I used to have to bring water with me to work. Tarlabasi had such an unreliable water supply back then. Now,” he says, turning on a tap, “that isn’t a problem.” In the pre-AKP days, when inflation reached 138% and buying a kebab in the old currency cost a seven-figure sum, Keke was constantly raising his prices. They have stayed the same now for four years. And, like many Turks, he feels richer: “Before Erdogan came in, I had never been on a plane. Now, I can pay just 35 Turkish lira (£13.50) to fly back to my home town, Kayseri [500 miles away in central Turkey].” Most people agree that the AKP has done a good job of rescuing Turkey’s economy from the abyss it fell into in the 2001 crash, getting inflation down to a sensible 7.2% while increasing wages. Some analysts see storm clouds ahead, but Turkey now boasts the sixth strongest economy in Europe and the 17th largest in the world, allowing the country to meet two of the four Maastricht criteria for EU entry – more, as Erdogan never tires of pointing out, than many EU members. The AKP has dragged Turkey’s legal system into the 21st century, too: before 2004, rapists were able to get a reduced sentence if they agreed to marry their victims, for example. But human rights organisations say Turkey still imprisons far too many people on spurious charges – especially Kurds – and free speech is not yet a reality. The gulf in support between the AKP and CHP was illustrated last weekend at rival rallies at Istanbul’s Kazlicesme Square. Erdogan got to his rally on Sunday almost two hours late. He arrived by helicopter wearing aviator shades and strode on stage with his headscarved wife, Emine, to a rock star’s welcome. “Papa Tayyip!” chanted hundreds of thousands in the crowd, cheering as he promised everything from ebooks for all students to earthquake-proof housing. “We had to bring in 600 people overnight to completely rebuild the stage and site it by the old city walls to fit in all our supporters,” said one adviser. The party put on “thousands” of buses to ship in voters from around the city. The day before, the opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu had set out to the Guardian what he sees as the dangers of continued AKP rule. “They are putting pressure on business people, they’re putting pressure on the media, on universities. We’re entering a crisis situation,” he said. Earlier this month, the campaign had got grubby when Erdogan started suggesting Kilicdaroglu was not a “real Muslim” because the opposition leader is believed to be an Alevi, a liberal branch of Shia Islam. “AKP is not a democratic party,” said Kilicdaroglu, who has been nicknamed Gandhi for his passing resemblance to the late Indian democratic leader. “Their goal is simply to never lose power. If Erdogan senses he is losing ground, he starts to come out with this stuff.” Under party laws, Erdogan cannot run again as prime minister in 2015. But if he wins 367 seats or more in the 550-seat legislature, he could push constitutional reforms through parliament without calling a referendum. His opponents claim his real desire is to turn Turkey into a presidential system, installing himself again in the top job. In Kasimpasa, the working-class district of Istanbul where Erdogan grew up, some people expressed criticism. Sakir Sefer is a rare critic of the local-boy-done-good. “On a personal level, I like the man – I’ve known him for 10, 12 years,” says Sefer, who runs a shop selling pizza-like pide . “But I don’t like the way he is starting to separate people rather than bring them together.” Overhearing this, a customer butts in. “Don’t listen to him” she says. “Erdogan is the apple of our eye.” Elsewhere, Sati Aydin, who runs a chicken kebab shop is furious with Erdogan for bringing religion into the elections. “Until recently, it wasn’t an issue that we were Alevi. No one mentioned it. I’m very angry that Erdogan has made this a topic of discussion in the elections.” Baker Ali says Erdogan’s politics have torn his family apart. “Because of him,” says the 49-year-old Kurd, “my sister and brother are in jail and I may lose my property.” His neighbourhood, the predominantly Kurdish Tarlabasi , is earmarked for a controversial urban regeneration project and his ramshackle house is one of 278 set to be bulldozed to make way for a luxury gated development. Ali blames Erdogan: the contractors given the tender are part of a conglomerate headed by the prime minister’s son-in-law. The imprisonment of Ali’s siblings, meanwhile, is directly related to what most commentators agree is Turkey’s biggest problem: the treatment of the estimated 14 million Kurds who make up about a fifth of the population. Ali’s 24-year-old sister gave birth to her first son in jail last year. A former town hall worker, she is one of 151 people – NGO workers, Kurdish politicians and their employees – charged in 2009 with supporting terrorism. His brother, meanwhile, is facing a seven-year sentence for throwing a stone at police during a demonstration. “In 2005, Erdogan said to us, I will solve this problem. He is a liar,” says Ali, referring to the landmark moment in 2005 when the prime minister became the first modern Turkish leader to admit the Kurds had been mistreated by Ankara administration . “We might have believed that he was going to help us at the last elections, but we’re not going to fall for it again.” The Kurds are still banned from using their own language in any official contexts , particularly in schools, and Ankara has not yet worked out a political solution to the bloody conflict between the Turkish army and the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), which is estimated to have claimed 45,000 lives since 1984. After a long honeymoon with commentators at home and abroad, it is clear Erdogan does not enjoy the support he once did. “He could have become the new Ataturk,” says Cengiz Aktar, professor of EU studies at Bahcesehir University in Istanbul, referring to the idolised founder of the secular Turkish republic whose likeness still adorns the walls of millions of Turkish homes and businesses today. “If you go back to the golden years of Turkish democracy – 2002, 2003, 2004 – Erdogan was on that track. “One example of that would be how the AKP managed to curtail the power of the army, which used to be a big problem in this country. But in 2004, he stopped reforming. Now he talks like an old conservative. He cares less and less about joining the European Union. He doesn’t think he needs to. This over-confidence is very much there, not just vis-a-vis the EU but also the whole world,” said Aktar, referring particularly to what many see as a failure of Turkey’s “zero problems with the neighbours” policy in the light of the Arab spring. But Sinan Ulgen, a former career diplomat in the Turkish foreign office who now runs the Centre For Economic and Foreign Policy Studies thinktank in Istanbul, says Turkey is an inspiration: “There are a number of areas were we can say that Turkey’s experience could be an aspiration or inspiration for Arab states. “For example, how Turkey has been able to combine a predominantly Muslim state with democracy and economic success, as well as social development.” But will Turkey still be an inspiration in years to come? Will it regress or progress? Shift to the east or the west? The result on Sunday night should provide a clue. Polls suggest the Justice and Development party (AKP) will win 45-50% of the vote, as in 2007, but whether this gives it a constitutional majority will depend on the performance of smaller parties. Under the current constitution, in order to send MPs into parliament in Ankara, a party must win at least 10% of the national vote. Though the CHP will almost certainly make that hurdle, the question is whether the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) will manage the leap after a serious of grubby scandals involving sex tapes forced 10 senior members to resign. If the MHP does not make the grade, its votes will be divided between the AKP and CHP and could give the AKP a supermajority. If they end up with more than two-thirds of the vote, the AKP does not legally need to consult the rest of parliament when rewriting Turkey’s constitution – though Erdogan claims he will, whether he has to or not. All sides agree the constitution needs to be radically updated – although it has been amended a few times, it is essentially the 1982 text that was drafted by the army after a military coup in 1980. But Erdogan’s opponents fear that left to his own devices, he will simply install an AKP version of democracy which would concentrate too much control in his own hands. There are also worries that an AKP-approved constitution would put an end to Turkey’s EU hopes. The talks are already deadlocked over a number of issues and without some progress after the election, perhaps by a unilateral concession to allow Cypriot ships to dock in Turkish ports, the talks might yet break down. The parties Polls suggest the Justice and Development party (AKP) will win 45-50% of the vote in Sunday’s election but whether this gives it a constitutional majority will depend on the performance of smaller parties. Under the current constitution, in order to send MPs to parliament, a party must win at least 10% of the national vote. The Republican People’s party (CHP) will almost certainly make that hurdle, but it is unclear whether the far-right Nationalist Action party (MHP) will do the same after sex scandals forced 10 senior members to resign. If the MHP fails to make the grade, its votes will be divided between the AKP and CHP. If it gets more than two-thirds of the vote, the AKP does not legally need to consult the rest of parliament when rewriting the constitution – though Recep Tayyip Erdogan claims he would do so anyway. All sides agree the constitution needs to be radically updated: although it has been amended a few times, it is essentially the 1982 text that was drafted by the army after a military coup in 1980. But Erdogan’s opponents fear that left to his own devices, he would concentrate too much control in his own hands. There are also worries that an AKP-approved constitution would put an end to Turkey’s EU hopes. Turkey Middle East Europe Helen Pidd guardian.co.uk