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Michele Bachmann needs a strong Republican debate performance to keep up with Rick Perry and Mitt Romney With the Republican presidential contest rapidly devolving into a two-way race between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, Monday night’s GOP debate in Tampa may represent Michele Bachmann’s last chance to keep up with the front-runners. The latest opinion polls in the Republican presidential nomination contest make bitter reading for Bachmann and her supporters: since the entry of Perry, the Texas governor, her support has melted away like a popsicle on a barbeque. The fire-breathing Tea Party favourite had threatened to up-end the nomination battle with her entry back in June. But she has wilted over summer and her evanescent campaign has seen its support collapse, even among the trenchant social conservatives that Bachmann was relying on. Tonight should be fertile ground for Bachmann: the debate is co-hosted by the Tea Party Express group and is being billed as “the Tea Party debate” by CNN. Last week’s debate at the Ronald Reagan Library turned into a slugging match between Perry and Romney . In the spin room, the Romney campaign was crowing that Perry damaged his chances with harsh language on social security. But the post-debate polls have only reinforced Perry emergence as the leader since his late entry to the contest last month. According to a national poll of Republicans by CNN – which is televising tonight’s debate – Perry is the leader with 32% of support compared to 21% for Romney. Ron Paul is in third place with 13%. Meanwhile, Bachmann has seen her support fall back into the chasing pack of also-rans, alongside Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum, none of whom are polling higher than 7%. While Bachmann was never really a credible contender, her star briefly flared in a lacklustre field after her dynamic perfomance in her first debate in June. She then won the Iowa straw poll – an early test of candidate’s appeal – but little has gone right for her since, with her campaign team losing staff. The Guardian will be liveblogging tonight’s GOP debate from 7pm ET, with the debate itself starting at 8pm ET. How the contenders are approaching tonight’s debate: • Rick Perry Perry complained of being a “pinata” at last week’s debate – and his comments that the current system of social security is a “Ponzi scheme” will be thrown back at him with full force tonight by Romney and Bachmann. In a state like Florida, where elderly voters embrace state pensions and healthcare, his attacks provide ammunition to his rivals. In reality, attacking the current funding of social security is a common theme among Republicans, both inside and outside of Congress, and it remains to be seen how Romney can attack Perry for being too conservative with the Republican grassroots dominated by conservative voters. The latest polls show little fallout from Romney’s attacks – the CNN poll mentioned above shows Perry leading in every single category [pdf], from electability to likeability and the critical question of job creation. Update: In a further boost, the Perry campaign will tonight unveil a major endorsement from Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal. • Mitt Romney After last week’s back and forth, Romney will need to be aggressive against Perry – with Romney’s advisors saying they think they can needle Perry into a rash remark or response. Since Romney already has a grip on the remaining moderate Republican voters, and will want to avoid painting himself as the defender of the status quo over social security. Romney received a sliver of good news this morning: former presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty announced that he was endorsing Romney, and has joined his election campaign as a co-chair. • Ron Paul The eternal outsider, Paul continues to delight his base but few primary voters beyond the libertarian-leaning right. Last week’s debate saw him mount an provocative attack on Perry for not being conservative enough, in a surprisingly conventional manner using attack ads. The pair may have had their own heated discussion in the middle of last week’s debate, although Perry’s campaign says the encounter was a cordial one over immigration policy. • Michele Bachmann With 7% in the last poll – which dips to just 4% if Sarah Palin is included as a candidate – Bachmann really needs a high-profile perfomance tonight to keep alive her hopes of winning the Iowa caucuses and using that as a springboard to credibility. So far, though, the signs aren’t good, as her last two debate performances have been weak and repetitive, while Perry is draining away the bulk of her natural supporters. Tonight, though, her advisers say that she plans to go after Perry for his comments on social security. Michele Bachmann as defender of social security? Politics does indeed make strange bedfellows. • Newt Gingrich The former House speaker wins applause for attacking the media but his campaign is still flatlining. Like several of the other candidates, Gingrich’s performance from here is about visibility, since he has no organisation to speak of. • Herman Cain With 6% in the last CNN poll, the former pizza chain chief executive has made a name for himself in national Republican politics. Like Bachmann, the novelty has worn off and his brief poll surge in the early summer has faded. Cain’s pro-business and low-tax rhetoric has done him no harm for his future political career in the Republican party. But he needs a broader message to have any impact on a presidential field that already included Romney and other candidates eager to talk about those issues. • Jon Huntsman Rock-bottom approval ratings reinforce the idea that the former Utah governor’s campaign was fatally flawed by his appointment as ambassador to China by the Obama administration. He will probably be the next candidate to bow out of the race. • Rick Santorum The former Pennsylvania senator set low expectations and he has failed to meet them. Currently polling within the margin of error of zero support. But as long as he keeps getting invited to debates, he’ll turn up. Republican presidential nomination 2012 Rick Perry Mitt Romney Michele Bachmann CNN Florida Republicans Tea Party movement US politics US elections 2012 United States Richard Adams guardian.co.uk