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The world may be on the verge of an oil crisis, according to WikiLeaks cables released to the Guardian today. According to the cables, Sadad al-Husseini, the former head of Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil monopoly, warned diplomats that Saudi reserves were overstated by almost 40%, and that the country couldn’t…

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Julia Hurley won her position as a state representative in the November election thanks in large part to one thing: her experience as a Hooters girl. “If I could make it at Hooters, I could make it anywhere,” Hurley writes in Hooters magazine, in a piece picked up by the…

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Saudi oil reserves ‘overstated’

The United States fears Saudi Arabia may not have enough oil reserves to prevent world prices rising sharply, according to cables from its embassy in Riyadh. The cables, obtained by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take heed of a warning from a former Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 40 per cent. US diplomats reported that Sadad al Husseini, the ex-head of exploration at Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, “disagreed” with Aramco’s analysis that it had reserves of 716bn barrels and that would rise to 900bn barrels in 20 years. The claims about the world’s largest crude oil exporter, published in The Guardian newspaper on Wednesday, come as the price of oil has soared in recent weeks to more than $100 a barrel amid tensions in the Middle East and global demand. Al Jazeera’s Imran Khan reports.

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Egypt inspires Iraq protests

The ongoing anti-government protests in Egypt are also inspiring smaller anti-government demonstrations in Iraq. People on the street are angry with the lack of public services and widespread corruption. Jane Arraf reports from the capital Baghdad.

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Amr Moussa: Egypt’s would-be peacemaker in a transition government

Amr Moussa, a career diplomat, has style, charisma and the common touch, say those who know him Amr Moussa , the former Egyptian foreign minister and current secretary general of the Arab League , knows public opinion appreciates his style and charisma, and since the start of the upheaval in Cairo he has made it increasingly clear that he wishes to play a part in a possible political transition. In an interview broadcast by the news channel Al-Arabiya, he went so far as to offer his services to the cause. Moussa, 74, is a typical high-ranking Egyptian official. He started as a career diplomat at a time when his country was still the undisputed leader of the Arab world. He was appointed ambassador to India in 1983, then moved to the UN, taking over from Ahmed Asmat Abdel Meghid, who had just been appointed foreign minister by President Hosni Mubarak. The same pattern was repeated in 1991 when Mubarak gave him Meghid’s job at the head of the Egyptian diplomatic service, one of the most efficient in the region. Ten years later, Moussa took over from Meghid at the head of the Arab League. During his time at the foreign ministry, in a plush building on the banks of the Nile, Moussa earned considerable respect. Under his guidance Egypt brought its policy back into line with other Arab nations, after being ostracised following the Camp David accords in 1978 and the subsequent signature of a separate peace treaty with Israel. Moussa combines the unique experience of normalised relations (at least until October 1994 when Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty) with a degree of criticism regarding Israeli policy, which has contributed to his popularity. He tried (unsuccessfully) to make Egypt one of the arbitrators of the 1993 Oslo Accords [on settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute], alongside the US. When Mubarak decided to put him in charge of the Arab League, which is headquartered in Cairo not far from the foreign ministry, some Egyptian commentators concluded that the president was trying to sideline a public figure who was becoming uncomfortably popular. Certainly the League is a much less attractive post, paralysed as it is by the countless divisions within the Arab world and sometimes even in competition with the powerful Organisation of the Islamic Conference (set up by Saudi Arabia for precisely that purpose). “Moussa combines several assets,” says an Arab diplomat who knows him well. “He has the experience, a very solid international address book and bags of charisma. He also has the common touch, much more than someone like Mohamed ElBaradei, who is typically upper middle class.” Moussa was born in 1936, the same year as the new vice president, Omar Suleiman, so he can hardly embody the future. But he could well play a key role in the coming transition. This article originally appeared in Le Monde Egypt guardian.co.uk

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The people of Egypt should be trusted to choose their own leaders On one side are hundreds of thousands of Egyptians demanding fair elections; on the other side is an authoritarian president mobilising a bullying state apparatus against the crowd. Leaders of western democracies need not have hesitated over whom to support. To his partial credit, David Cameron expressed fairly promptly the view that Egyptians are entitled to political freedom. He also condemned repression by forces loyal to Hosni Mubarak. Less laudable is equivocation over the fate of the president himself. The moral imperative is clearly that he leave office immediately. But strategic considerations – the implications of a chaotic interregnum – have forced Mr Mubarak’s erstwhile western allies to hold back from publicly insisting on his exit. “Orderly transition” is the euphemism of choice. President Barack Obama has been similarly reticent, while coming under intense domestic pressure to direct the outcome of events in Cairo. Washington’s influence vastly outweighs London’s, but the same dilemmas are being pondered on both sides of the Atlantic. The choice is essentially between competing schools of foreign policy – pro-democracy idealism and strategic realpolitik. The idealists see events in Egypt, following similar turmoil in Tunisia, as the revolutionary spring after a long authoritarian winter during which economic and political development in the Arab world was frozen. Their preferred analogy is with the 1989 national uprisings in eastern Europe that tore down the Iron Curtain. By extension, the duty of the west is to embrace the popular revolt with unalloyed exuberance and consign Mr Mubarak to the dustbin of history. By contrast, the realpolitikers see events in Cairo as dangerous instability in a tricky part of the world where, crucially, radical Islam is a factor. In that analysis, the preferred comparison is with the Iranian revolution of 1979, when popular demands for democracy were hijacked by religious fanatics. Then Mr Mubarak looks like a secular leader and long-standing ally who should not be jettisoned to please a fickle mob – at least not in the absence of a clear alternative. It is easy enough to see why the US should want to hedge its bets. For as long as there was the possibility of Mr Mubarak prevailing over the protesters, Washington did not want to sabotage the relationship, not least since doing so would have repercussions for other alliances. Foreign policy hawks have been reminding Mr Obama of other Arab rulers – in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Jordan, for example – who, for all their unpleasant domestic political arrangements, are useful in the global campaign against jihadi terrorism. These “strategic partners” would react badly to the US being seen to support or even foment grass-roots civil uprising. If, however, Mr Obama was seen to be propping up a despot in defiance of Egyptians’ democratic impulses, the US would lose any vestiges of moral authority it might have to influence the evolution of the post-Mubarak state. That would make it more likely that radical religious parties might capture the revolution. Meanwhile, there are practical obstacles to holding prompt parliamentary and presidential elections. Egypt’s constitution and administrative system are designed to preserve the existing regime. A poll that enabled Mr Mubarak’s party to reclaim its monopoly on power with a superficial imprimatur of democratic legitimacy would ill serve the people who have bravely insisted on a sweeping change. Western diplomats also fret that a hurried and disorderly election would benefit the ultra-conservative Muslim Brotherhood – active as an opposition force for many years – at the expense of the inexperienced, new secular civil protest leaders. Fear of the Brotherhood lies behind much western half-heartedness in welcoming the new era in Egyptian politics. That fear expresses most of all how little is known about strength of Islamist feeling on the streets. There is plenty in the Brotherhood’s past doctrines and rhetoric to cause alarm. It is an ideological relation to al-Qaida; the question of how distant cousins they are is fiercely debated by clerics and policy-makers alike. The more pertinent question is how relevant the organisation is to events unfolding in Cairo. It did not organise mass protests, nor has it dictated their demands. The crowds in Tahrir Square are clearly not the vanguard of some fanatical religious uprising. They are ordinary Egyptians who want a better life and are demanding the obvious political change – democracy – that will unlock other opportunities. They are in no hurry to replace a repressive secular regime with a repressive religious one. One of the defining features of western reaction to the abrupt upheaval in Egypt is sheer ignorance. The vast majority of diplomats, politicians and journalists failed to anticipate it and lack a sufficiently textured understanding of Egyptian society to forecast what might happen next. Western foreign policy has tended to treat the Arab world as a vast mass of potential recruits for jihad, best warehoused in authoritarian regimes, under rulers whose chief appeal lies in their lack of overt Islamist ideology and their appetite for military and intelligence co-operation. The events of the past few weeks demand an end to that approach. The policy of supporting governments that scorn democracy is a dead end. It makes a hypocrisy of western claims to support the aspirations of ordinary people. It alienates opposition movements, non-governmental organisations and civil society leaders who are the best hope for transition to more stable, plural politics in the region. A clear-sighted appraisal of western interests in the Middle East would reveal that the choice between the idealism and realpolitik is a false one. Putting trust in leaders such as Hosni Mubarak is not a mark of strategic caution, but a reckless gamble and a guarantee of future instability. Trusting people to choose their own leaders in free elections is also something of a gamble. But that approach has a better chance of preserving the west’s moral authority and retaining some popular goodwill in the Arab world. Those are far more reliable guarantors of stability and security. Egypt Hosni Mubarak Barack Obama David Cameron Islam guardian.co.uk

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Chris Matthews Rips Obama’s Handling of Egypt Crisis: ‘I Feel Ashamed As an American’

MSNBC anchor Chris Matthews appeared on Morning Joe, Friday, to slam President Obama's handling of the escalating crisis in Egypt, saying it made him ” ashamed as an American .” Matthews, who famously declared Obama gave him a “thrill” up his leg, excoriated what he perceived to be the President's disloyalty to Egypt's leader, Hosni Mubarak. The Hardball host berated, ” And Barack Obama, as much I support him in many ways, there is a transitional quality to the guy that is chilling.” He added, “I believe in relationships…You treat your friends a certain way. You're loyal to them.” Matthews has previously lauded the authoritarian Mubarak.. Pointing out Mubarak's stand against Hezbollah and other extremist elements in the region, the anchor on January 31 wondered, “How can you say he'll easily be replaced? This guy's the George Washington of peace over there.” [See video below.] Deriding immediate calls for Mubarak to step down, Matthews lamented, “Character and planning…I feel shame about this. I feel ashamed as an American, the way we're doing this. I know he has to change. I know we're for democracy, but the way we've handled it is not the way a friend handles a matter.” Matthews even attacked Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's performance: “I watched Secretary Clinton today. I don't get anything. I don't see anything other than two and two are four. I keep waiting for five. Show me you've done your jobs over there.” A transcript of his answer to Joe Scarborough's question, which aired at 8:22am EST, follows: JOE SCARBOROUGH: Chris, a statement yesterday from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, real concern among Arab states, if this is how we treat our ally of 30 years and I know it's tough to bring these facts up to people who want to call for his immediate lynching, but if we treat an ally of 30 years this way, demanding that he leaves quote “now,” Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, are other allies in the region start questioning America's character [sic]? CHRIS MATTHEWS: Well, I think that's the great word, Joe. It's character. Our national character. We do is have a character. And Americans think about ourselves as the good guys and being good friends and loyal. And these are values that mean a lot to us as people. You don't walk down the street and watch your friend get gunned down and not do anything about it. We're not Kitty Genovese here. We're not a situation in New York or something when somebody gets mugged and we watch it happen. Was he our friend for 30 years? Are we denying that? I remember, Joe, when he came to one of those afternoon events they had in the House Foreign Affairs committee back in 1981 after Sadat had been assassinated. And, of course, we Americans loved Sadat. There was a great emotion towards him because of what he had done for peace and his courage. And we just loved his dignity and his personality. And Along came Mubarak, this strong personality. We thought things might come apart over there and he held everything together. He was strong. I was with Tip O'Neil that day and I walked aback from that meeting with him and I said, “He's a strong guy.” And we were just chatting about what an impressive figure he was and we've been with him for 30 years. And now we're saying, it's time for the gate. Well, we should have known this. My second point of view about this, it's friendship. He's 83 in May. He's getting old. We should have prepared this 10, 20 years ago. In friendship, where was the State Department? Don't we have hundreds of people sitting over there in Foggy Bottom with no other job except to know what's going on in Egypt, with no other job, but to know the culture and politics in that country and to understand who the potential leaders and factions that might off set the Muslim Brotherhood? What are they doing? I watched Secretary Clinton today . I don't get anything. I don't see anything other than two and two are four . I keep waiting for five. Show me you've done your jobs over there . And I just wish, in our friendship, we should have been smart and I think we don't have a plan B. I mean, the guy's almost 83. His plan was Gamal]. I was talking to Secretary Powell while ago. I hope it wasn't off the record, because he said it rather clearly to me. I said, “What do you think of Mubarak?” He said, “He's like every other leader in the world there. All they think about is primogeniture.” They want their oldest kid to be their successor, whether it's Gadaffi or Bashar Assad. They call themselves Baathist, monarchist, whatever, Islamists. It all comes down to the same thing. They want their oldest kid to replace them. And what was the plan for transition for our friend? Did we ever talk to him about it? Did we talk about it, encourage him? That's my view. Character and planning. And I don't see- I feel shame about this. I feel ashamed as an American, the way we're doing this. I know he has to change. I know we're for democracy, but the way we've handled it is not the way a friend handles a matter. We're not handling as Americans should handle a matter like this. I don't feel right about it. And Barack Obama, as much I support him in many ways, there is a transitional quality to the guy that is chilling. I believe in relationships. I think we all do. Relationship politics is what we were brought up with in this country. You treat your friends a certain way. You're loyal to them. And when they're wrong, you try to be with them. You try and stick with them. As the great old line was, “I don't need you when I'm right.” You've got to help out people when they're in trouble and all I'm seeing is transaction. Who we going to get the next deal with? And, by the way, we don't have a plan for the next deal, so we're not even good at transactions, let alone relationships. What are we good at here? That's what I keep asking. What have we done as leaders and friends? Nothing except watch. MIKA BRZEZINSKI: Wow! — Scott Whitlock is a news analyst for the Media Research Center. Click here to follow him on Twitter .

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Middle East ructions bring both cheer and fear | Michael White

Optimists can’t endorse free elections in Arab world – as everyone should – without acknowledging the risk that accompanies a free expression of views Buried away inside today’s Guardian there’s a touching insight into the impact of the WikiLeaks cables on countries such as Tunisia and Egypt , the giant of the Arab world whose fate now hangs in the balance. The article suggests that when I fretted at the time about the asymmetry of the leaked diplomatic cables, the fact that we were all reading US material but not equivalent data from far shadier states, I got it back to front by concentrating on producers, not consumers. In their new book on the WikiLeaks affair, one of a flood heading our way, my colleagues David Leigh and Luke Harding note the varied response to the pre-Christmas publication in the Guardian, New York Times and other mainstream media then dealing with Julian Assange. On the kneejerk left some people felt the cables failed to reveal enough misconduct by US diplomats and therefore must have been censored. On the American right, populist politicians such as Sarah Palin denounced the leaks in extravagant terms as a major crime, virtually inciting Assange’s assassination in some cases. My own response was closer to what Leigh and Harding dismiss as the “metropolitan yawn from bien pensants who felt they knew it all”. Fair enough, we did feel that and that most people who read broadsheets newspapers or listen to Radio 4 must have thought leaks a bit over-hyped. That’s modern media for you. Where we were wrong, suggests today’s extract from WikiLeaks: Inside Julian Assange’s War on Secrecy (I’ve not yet paid my £9.99 or £6.99 for an online Guardian bargain), is in underestimating “the hunger for the cables in countries that didn’t have fully functioning democracies or the sort of free expression enjoyed in London, Paris or New York”. In consequence the Guardian’s leaks team took a flood of calls from editors and journalists around the world asking what the 300m-word cache said about their own country; not easy for colleagues sifting a mountain of cables in friendly competition with a vastly better staffed parallel trawl by the New York Times – I’m told that our lot emerged creditably. We still can’t draw solid conclusions about this kind of data journalism – trawling the internet for stuff – is going to affect the wider world long-term any more than we can confidently evaluate the convulsions now shaking the Arab world. Will the long-suffering people of these countries, rotting victims of a decaying Ottoman empire for centuries before the western European imperialists moved into the region in the 19th century, emerge with better, more accountable governments? Or slide into new autocracies like the cruel and increasingly incompetent theocracy in Iran? I suppose I should add Iraq too at this point for fairness, though that outcome too is uncertain. Since it’s always best to try and be optimistic, we may one day look back on the past decade – especially the events now unfolding – as the one when Islam in the Arab world (the two are politically and socially inseparable) finally embraced the modern world as more successful Muslim states such as Indonesia and Malaysia have now done. I don’t share Simon Jenkins’s well-defined pessimism, that all this is none of our business and that – from Kosovo to Kabul — the west (east too) does more harm than good by our interventions. Great powers have great responsibilities, as China is discovering and Britain (America’s “deputy sheriff”, as a senior British official put it this week) knows because it used to be a great power. We do good, we do bad, but either way we have interests. In the Middle East they are acute because the region still holds two-thirds of the world’s proven oil reserves (half the gas) which makes our faltering economies function and help China’s and India’s race ahead. Thus three of the past five global recessions have followed a geopolitical shock in the Middle East and even the bankers’ crash of 2007-9 became serious only in late 2008 after Lehman Brothers crashed but also after oil prices doubled to $148 dollars a barrel in a year. With characteristic calm, today’s Daily Mail predicts a £90 petrol tank for Mondeo Man in 2011. Oil is one just one factor. Immigration across the Med, crime, religious fanaticism (much of it funded by oil-rich Saudi Arabia) Iran’s nuclear ambitions, footloose capital from oil-sodden Gulf States which help – or hurt – our economies, the list is a long one. Watching Cairo’s crowds on TV you can be forgiven for being both cheered and fearful. Yesterday the pro-Mubarak goons were out on the street, menacing anti-government protesters. We should not be surprised by that, it’s part of the familiar pattern. I’ve seen it at first hand myself in Asia and Latin America. It does not mean that the regime will survive, only that it is fighting to rescue what it can for the Chinese-style military-industrial-political complex which enjoys most of Egypt’s growing economic wealth. The ace in its hand is stability and security – few people want chaos and disorder to engulf their country. Which of us would? The Egyptian army – backbone of the state – is the key. Such a law and order agenda can be manipulated and probably is, both in Egypt and in other Arab countries facing unrest like Jordan – and those still held down. The outcome in Tunisia, where WikiLeaks helped focus a simmering resentment (as the US ambassador noted in his cables), is far from clear. Leigh and Harding note that some Tunisians gave America brownie points for candour about the old regime — conspicuously absent from analysis by France, the ex-colonial power. No surprise there then! But the White House has to decide when it has to jump ship to maintain stability – it has now abandoned Hosni Mubarak – which is too expedient to ever look attractive. But optimists can’t endorse free elections – as everyone should — without acknowledging the risk that accompanies a free expression of views. Egypt’s Islamist Muslim Brotherhood seems to be accepted as a major player in society. Does that mean that Egyptians would vote for them – or treat them as most British Catholics treat their own theological leaders, to be listened to but not governed by? Listening to some evasive answers by a Muslim Brotherhood spokesman on Radio 4′s Today a few minutes ago I was not encouraged about his views on a religious council adjudicating on the laws of the state, the Shia Iranian model. We’re not against Israel, we are against injustice, he also said, which sounds better. But did I hear him say “if a lady like Margaret Thatcher ruled over Egypt we would support her”? I did. Steady on there, chaps. But that’s the thing about free elections, people get to elect who they want. Maggie or — dare I say it — even the Muslim Brotherhood. WikiLeaks The US embassy cables United States US foreign policy US national security Egypt Middle East Tunisia Michael White guardian.co.uk

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Who is behind the Egyptian protests? | Robert Dreyfuss

A panoply of activists and opposition groups are maintaining the assault on Hosni Mubarak’s presidency Viewed from above, the protests in Egypt have been impressive to watch on television, with hundreds of thousands of people in motion. In some reports, it’s portrayed as a spontaneous eruption, a leaderless rebellion. But behind the scenes, a panoply of activists and groups are responsible for organising, directing and sustaining the movement against President Hosni Mubarak and his cronies. Young, angry and organised In particular, a movement led by tech-savvy students and twentysomethings – labour activists, intellectuals, lawyers, accountants, engineers – that had its origins in a three-year-old textile strike in the Nile Delta and the killing of a 28-year-old university graduate, Khaled Said , has emerged as the centre of what is now an alliance of Egyptian opposition groups, old and new. Sparked by the April 6 Youth Movement and another group, We Are All Khaled Said , the coalition has established a leadership committee of 10 people that includes Islamists, nationalists, liberals, reformers and Nasserists, and which for the time being has settled on Mohamed ElBaradei , the former director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as its spokesman and titular leader. But revolutions are messy things, and although the anti-Mubarak coalition is bound together by its distaste for the regime, there’s no telling if it can stay together, especially if the prospect of taking power looms. Who, and what, will emerge on top when Mubarak steps down – and presuming that the Egyptian armed forces don’t decide to put forward one of their own – isn’t clear. But what’s clear is that the masses who’ve packed streets and squares in Cairo, Alexandria, Suez, Port Said and Ismailia and other cities are far from leaderless. At the core of the revolt is the April 6 Youth Movement, which runs a veritable war room in downtown Cairo, issuing leaflets, internet missives and guidances to the crowds filling Tahrir Square. The group takes its name from April 6, 2008, when Egyptian authorities cracked down brutally to suppress a strike among textile workers in the gritty industrial town of El Mahalla El Kobra. Despite vigorous efforts by the authorities to suppress and sabotage April 6 and We Are All Khaled Said’s internet presence, both groups have reached out beyond Egypt’s college-educated youth to the unemployed and underemployed, hewing to a strictly secular and pro-reform message. April 6 organiser Ahmed Maher, along with many of his confreres, mode common cause with the more grizzled activists who made up the hardy band of pro-democracy advocates in Egypt, including two dissident groups, Kefaya (“Enough!”) and El Ghad (“Tomorrow”), both set up in 2004, and Maher even used El Ghad’s offices to get started. Kefaya and the reborn democracy movement The democracy movement in Egypt was reborn, to a degree, with the founding of Kefaya in 2004. Kefaya was sparked in part by its support for the intifada in the Palestinian territories in 2000, and it gained energy by joining the fierce opposition to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. It drew on an eclectic base that included communists, Nasserists, Islamists and secular activists, and its spokesman was Abdel-Halim Qandil, editor of the Nasserist newspaper al-Arabi. Also in 2004, Ayman Nour, a lawyer and member of Egypt’s parliament, founded El Ghad . Both Kefaya and El Ghad quickly fell foul of the authorities, and Nour was famously imprisoned for speaking out. The 10-member steering committee formed at the height of the Cairo protests in 2011 included several representatives of Kefaya, along with Nour of El Ghad, and Qandil, representing the Nasserist party, plus Osama al-Ghazali Harb of the liberal Democratic Front , established in 2007. Though none of these older movements, who often comprise veterans of Egyptian politics, can be said to have sparked this year’s eruption, they’ve joined it wholeheartedly and anchor it with their activist and pro-reform bona fides. The role of the Muslim Brotherhood Existing in uneasy alliance with the secular groups, of course, is the Muslim Brotherhood . Founded in 1928 in Ismailia by Hassan al-Banna, the secretive Ikhwan (“Brothers”) has long been Egypt’s most powerful opposition group. From the 1930s through the 1960s, the Ikhwan had a paramilitary adjunct and carried out assassinations of top officials and police. But its back was broken under Gamal Abdel Nasser, and in the 1970s Anwar Sadat rehabilitated the Ikhwan and, with strong support from Saudi Arabia, the organisation re-established itself. Since then, it has eschewed violence, and in 2005 candidates supported by the Muslim Brotherhood won scores of seats in parliament. In the recent upsurge in Egypt, the Brotherhood has been at pains to stay in the background, though its decision this week to take part in Monday’s outpouring signalled, perhaps, that the balance had tipped irrevocably against the Mubarak regime. Both inside and outside Egypt , there is concern that the Muslim Brotherhood, which is tightly organised, well funded and maintains a cell structure – along with decidedly reactionary views on social issues and a strong strain of antisemitism – might hijack Egypt’s revolution and impose an Islamist order. Yet the core leadership of the revolt, from April 6 on down, cannot be said to have Islamist leanings, and most experts on Egyptian affairs do not believe that Egypt would readily swallow the ultraconservative views of the Brotherhood’s leaders, many of whom are in their 70s and 80s. In addition, the Egyptian Brotherhood is utterly unlike either the Taliban or Iran’s clerical regime in its outlook. Yet it provides muscle and organisation discipline to the anti-Mubarak movement, and leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed al-Beltagui, was quietly included as a member of the leadership committee. ElBaradei, the Nobel peace prizewinner ElBaradei, 68, returned to Egypt last February to explore the possibility of challenging Mubarak in presidential elections scheduled for 2011. He’d already gained widespread fame in Egypt during his tenure at the IAEA for having confronted President George W Bush over falsified claims of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and again over US alarmism over Iran’s nuclear research programme and he won the Nobel peace prize for his work in 2005. Back in Egypt, he set up the National Association for Change , and he inspired Ahmed Maher and his allies to redouble their efforts. Because of his name recognition, and because he is well respected outside Egypt, the other members of the anti-Mubarak movement – from the April 6 group to the Muslim Brotherhood – designated ElBaradei its leader. Since then ElBaradei has spoken out forcefully, saying that Mubarak “must go”. All of these elements were in place when the spark from a similar revolt in Tunisia fed the flames of rebellion in Egypt. Whether the leadership can maintain its unity is uncertain, especially if and when the question of apportioning power arises. Class differences, disputes over relations with the United States and with Israel, and the possibility of arguments over the role of Islamism in politics can drive wedges into the now-united opposition. More significantly, however, is the sheer weight of the wreckage left after three decades of corruption and economic mismanagement. If the leaders of the Egyptian revolt take power, they’ll inherit staggering problems of how to feed, shelter and employ a vast and growing population that is overwhelmingly young, while, at the same time, navigating the tricky shoals of inter-Arab and Arab-Israeli politics. Like Barack Obama, who inherited an economic collapse and two unfinished wars from his predecessor, the leaders of Egypt’s rebellion might also find that it’s not easy to deliver change that its population can believe in. Egypt Protest Hosni Mubarak Middle East Robert Dreyfuss guardian.co.uk

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The Jasmine revolution in Tunisia has offered much hope across the Arab world. We have seen young and hopeful demonstrators in Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, calling for much-needed reform and democracy in their own countries ( Change is coming , 31 January). We offer our support to those courageous young demonstrators. Their aspirations and hopes are legitimate and the Jasmine revolution has shown that it may be possible to achieve them. We condemn the violent repression of those demonstrations and ask western governments, especially EU members and the US, to respect the Arab world’s desire for change, and to halt their financial and military assistance to autocratic regimes in the region. David Held , Professor of Political Science at LSE Hamid Dabashi , Hagop Kevorkian Professor of Iranian Studies and Comparative Literature at Columbia University, Inderjeet Parmar , Professor of Government at Manchester University Jameson W Doig , Professor Emeritus of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University John Esposito , Professor of Religion and International Affairs at Georgetown University John Sidel , Sir Patrick Gillam Professor of International and Comparative Politics at LSE Mary Kaldor , Professor of Global Governance at LSE Noam Chomsky , Professor (Emeritus) of Linguistics at MIT Rainer Baubock , Professor of Social and Political Theory, European University Institute Richard Caplan , Professor of International Relations, Oxford University Kevin Morgan , Professor of Politics and Contemporary History at University of Manchester Egypt Middle East Tunisia Jordan Saudi Arabia guardian.co.uk

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