Palestinians: we are already recognised as a state by two-thirds of the globe
September 20, 2011 No Comment
UN delegation claims member countries comprising 75% of the world’s population are in favour of its bid for full statehood Interactive: which countries already recognise Palestinian? Almost two-thirds of the UN’s member states – representing more than 75% of the world’s population – already formally recognise the Palestinian state in some form, according to information posted by Mahmoud Abbas’s administration and foreign ministries around the world. The Palestinian president is pressing forward with plans to formally request UN membership this Friday, despite attempts at a diplomatic compromise by many western states and a US pledge to veto the membership bid. Raising Palestine to full statehood would need to pass the UN security council – where it is subject to veto – and then a vote at the general assembly, comprising all 193 UN member states. However, the general assembly can raise Palestine’s status from “permanent observer” to “non-member observer state”, a largely symbolic vote, without security council approval. Analysis by the Guardian corroborates reports that such a vote would be extremely likely to be passed. Statements on government websites, from the Arab League, Palestinian administrations and elsewhere suggest that in some form, often with caveats, 126 UN member states already grant formal diplomatic recognition of a Palestinian state. The majority of these countries, 105, also formally recognise the state of Israel. The countries that recognise Palestine comprise around 5.5bn of the world’s population of 7bn – more than 75% – but based on World Bank GDP figures make up less than 10% of the world’s economy, highlighting the global rift on what remains a highly contentious topic. Countries which do not yet formally recognise Palestine are overwhelmingly concentrated in western Europe and North America. No western European democracy currently recognises Palestine as a state, but some newer EU members have previously recognised statehood. The UN is unlikely to vote on Abbas’s proposals for a period of several months even if the resolution is tabled as planned. Envoys from the Middle Eastern Quartet – the US, UN, EU and Russia – are meeting through the week to work on compromise plans to place before Abbas and the Israeli government. The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, urged Abbas not to put proposals for statehood before the UN, warning such a course of action was “not the best way forward”. • Methodology: The graphic is based on countries that are recognised as full UN members who have independently formally acknowledged Palestine as a nation state. The countries who have given this formal recognition do not necessarily agree on borders or other factors in statehood, and may have recognised Palestine at any point between 1988 and 2011. • Figures for population estimates and GDP are taken from the World Bank datastore, using the most recent year for which data was available (typically 2010). Palestinian territories Middle East Mahmoud Abbas Israel United Nations James Ball guardian.co.uk
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International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook says slow, bumpy recovery could be jeopardised by Europe’s debt crisis or over-hasty attempts to cut America’s budget deficit • IMF cuts growth forecast for UK The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that the United States and the eurozone risk being plunged back into recession unless policymakers tackle the problems facing the world’s two biggest economic forces. In its half-yearly health check, the Washington-based fund said the global economy was “in a dangerous place” and that its forecast of a slow, bumpy recovery would be jeopardised by a deepening of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis or over-hasty attempts to rein in America’s budget deficit. “Global activity has weakened and become more uneven, confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing,” the IMF said as it cut its global growth forecast for both 2011 and 2012. The IMF also cut its growth forecasts for the UK economy and advised George Osborne to ease the pace of deficit reduction in the event of any further downturn in activity. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook cited the Japanese tsunami and the rise in oil prices prompted by the unrest in north Africa and the Middle East as two of a “barrage” of shocks to hit the international economy in 2011. It said it now expected the global economy to expand by 4% in both 2011 and 2012, cuts of 0.3 points and 0.5 points since it last published forecasts three months ago. “The structural problems facing the crisis-hit advanced economies have proven even more intractable than expected, and the process of devising and implementing reforms even more complicated. “The outlook for these economies is thus for a continuing, but weak and bumpy, expansion.” The IMF said it expected the strong performance of the leading emerging nations to be the main driving force behind growth in the world economy of 4% in 2012, 0.5 points lower than it had been anticipating three months ago. China’s growth rate is forecast to ease back slightly, from 9.5% in 2011 to 9% in 2012, while India is predicted to expand by 7.5% in 2012 after 7.8% growth in 2011. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue to post robust growth, up from 5.2% in 2011 to 5.8% in 2012. The rich developed countries, by contrast, are forecast to grow by just under 2%, slightly faster than the 1.6% pencilled in by the IMF for 2011. “However, this assumes that European policymakers contain the crisis in the euro periphery area, that US policymakers strike a judicious balance between support for the economy and medium-term fiscal consolidation, and that volatility in global financial markets does not escalate.” “The risks are clearly to the downside,” the IMF added, pointing to two particular concerns – that policymakers in the eurozone lose control of the sovereign debt crisis, and that the US economy could weaken as a result of political impasse in Washington, a deteriorating housing market or a slide in shares on Wall Street. It said the European Central Bank should consider cutting interest rates and that the Federal Reserve should stand ready to provide more “unconventional support”. It said: “Either of these two eventualities would have severe implications for global growth. The renewed stress could undermine financial markets and institutions in advanced economies, which remain unusually vulnerable. Commodity prices and global trade and capital flows would likely decline abruptly, dragging down growth in developing countries.” The IMF said that in its downside scenario, the eurozone and the US could fall back into recession, with activity some three percentage points lower in 2012 than envisaged. Currently, the fund is expecting the US to grow by 1.8% in 2012 and the eurozone by 1.1%. “In the euro area, the adverse feedback loop between weak sovereign and financial institutions needs to be broken. Fragile financial institutions must be asked to raise more capital, preferably through private solutions. If these are not available, they will have to accept injections of public capital or support from the European Financial Stability Fund, or be restructured or closed.” The IMF urged Republicans and Democrats in Washington to settle their differences: “Deep political differences leave the course of US policy highly uncertain. There is a serious risk that hasty fiscal cutbacks will further weaken the outlook without providing the long-term reforms required to reduce debt to more sustainable levels.” IMF Global economy Economics Larry Elliott guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …Two US marines were killed when the Super Cobra attack helicopter they were flying in went down in flames during a training exercise at California’s camp Pendleton. Firefighters were battling a 120-acre brush fire triggered by the afternoon crash late yesterday. It was the third major accident in the Southern…
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As high court decides upon legality of Sheikh Raed Salah’s detention, home secretary admits tougher line on extremism The home secretary, Theresa May, has defended her decision to exclude the Palestinian political activist Sheikh Raed Salah from Britain, insisting that she will take pre-emptive action against those who encourage extremism. A high court judge is to decide whether Salah’s arrest and detention was illegal and if he should be entitled to damages for false imprisonment. Salah, 52, is leader of the northern branch of the Islamic movement in Israel, and was detained in London in June after it emerged he had been allowed to enter Britain despite an exclusion order being issued against him. Salah, a Palestinian with Israeli citizenship, is on bail pending the outcome of his legal challenge. The home secretary, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, defended her action and acknowledged the hardening in the coalition government’s approach to those who it believes “encourage extremism”. “I think it is right that we have taken a slightly different stance over the last 18 months, as a new government, in looking at this because we believe that the issue of words that are said – what people actually say and how they are able to encourage others through the words that they say – is an important issue for us to address,” she said. “That’s why we have perhaps taken some decisions in relation to individuals that might not have been taken in the past.” She said it was important for the government’s Prevent strategy to look not only at violent extremism, but other kinds of extremism as well. “If we are able to do that, I think [that] enables us to operate at an earlier level rather than simply waiting until people have gone down the route of violent extremism,” she said. The high court ruling in the Salah case will test the legality of this pre-emptive approach to excluding overseas political activists branded as extremists by the home secretary. Mr Justice Nicol reserved judgment after a two-day hearing on whether Salah’s arrest and detention was legal and he should be entitled to damages. Salah is claiming he was falsely imprisoned because he was “confined without lawful authority”. Salah flew to Britain on 25 June intending to stay for 10 days to attend meetings and public engagements. It is believed he was “waved through at [the] border” and was detained three days later when it emerged the home secretary had issued a deportation order, saying Salah’s presence in Britain was “not conducive to the public good”. Salah’s defence told the high court that the police who arrested him at a London hotel failed to explain in Arabic why they were detaining him. Terrorism policy UK security and terrorism Immigration and asylum Palestinian territories Middle East Israel Human rights Alan Travis guardian.co.uk
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Bill Bailey gets straight to the point – the world as we know it is ending. According to something he read on a website. But why are people panic-buying trampolines? Bill Bailey
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European court of human rights says removal would breach right to family life in ruling that could curtail Home Office powers The Home Office’s ability to deport individuals who have committed crimes may be curtailed by a European court judgment banning the removal of a Nigerian man convicted of rape. The Strasbourg court ruled that the 24-year-old man, known as AA, would have his right to family life “violated” if he was sent back to Nigeria. He lives with his mother, a nurse, in England. In its finding, the court declared: “The applicant’s deportation from the United Kingdom would be disproportionate to the legitimate aim of the ‘prevention of disorder and crime’ and would therefore not be necessary in a democratic society.” How much of a precedent the case will set was not immediately clear. The man was convicted of rape at the age of 15 but parole reports showed he had responded “positively” to rehabilitation and was subsequently deemed to pose a low risk of reoffending. Welcoming the decision, the Aire Centre, the legal centre which took the case to the European court of human rights, described it as a “resounding victory”. The young man has obtained both undergraduate and postgraduate degrees in the UK since leaving school, it said. A spokeswoman added: “There has been the most spectacular rehabilitation of a juvenile offender. The blanket approach [to deportation] taken by the UK was totally inappropriate.” The Home Office did not comment immediately on the judgment. Last year about 5,000 “foreign national criminals” were deported from the UK at the end of their sentences. In its judgment, the court explained: “The fact that the applicant was a minor when he committed the offence does not preclude his deportation given the seriousness of the offence in question. “[But that] consideration must be carefully weighed against the applicant’s exemplary conduct and, as the evidence before the court demonstrates, commendable efforts to rehabilitate himself and to reintegrate into society over a period of seven years. “In such circumstances, the [UK] government are required to provide further support for their contention that the applicant can reasonably be expected to cause disorder or to engage in criminal activities such as to render his deportation necessary in a democratic society. “However, the government have neither cited other relevant concerns nor submitted any documents capable of supporting such a contention.” European court of human rights Immigration and asylum Human rights Owen Bowcott guardian.co.uk
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Miliband tables plan to dilute union power in Labour leadership elections
September 20, 2011 No Comment
Scheme will allow registered supporters to vote in union section of party’s electoral college Ed Miliband has tabled proposals to allow a new registered supporters’ group to vote in elections for the Labour leader and deputy leader. The proposals mean the supporters’ group will be able to vote in the union section, diluting the role of unions in leadership elections. Unions currently hold one-third of the vote in the leadership electoral college, with MPs claiming another third and constituencies the remaining third. But Miliband has been forced to defer plans to change voting powers at the Labour conference, leaving unions with 50% of the vote until a further review, due to be completed in the spring, can set out further, specific proposals. The Labour leader is also proposing that some multiple voting be banned, meaning MPs in the leadership election will only be allowed to vote in their section. A union affiliate will be able to vote twice if they are a party member – once in the union section and once in the party membership section. Miliband’s supporters claim he is backing large changes amounting to the biggest reforms to the party rule book for 20 years, but union leaders are likely to be pleased that they have not felt forced to give ground, at this stage, on whether their voting power at conference should be reined in. The registered supporters’ scheme will be run by local parties, and it remains to be seen whether there is a group of people who are interested in supporting the party but not going so far as to join it. Some people believe registered supporters could open the way to US-style primaries. Party sources said the unions had agreed for the first time that local parties would be able to communicate directly with union levy payers in their constituencies. At present, local parties do not have access to union political levy membership lists, leading to complaints that unions are controlling their members and not letting them be contacted by candidates directly, especially if they are opposed by the union hierarchy in a party leadership election. There are as many as 3 million political levy payers, and Miliband regards them as an untapped resource for the party. The proposals are due to be discussed at a meeting of the national executive, and then will go through party conference next week. Ed Miliband Labour party leadership Trade unions Labour Patrick Wintour guardian.co.uk
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Lib Dem leader says date of implementation of reforms could be far earlier than that recommended by Sir John Vickers’ Independent Commission on Banking Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader and deputy prime minister, has said banking reforms designed to prevent another taxpayer bailout of the system could be implemented “well before 2019″. Clegg said he thought the date of implementation for reforms of Britain’s biggest banks could be far earlier than that recommended by the Independent Commission on Banking, chaired by Sir John Vickers. The commission’s report – published earlier this month – said banks should ring-fence their high street banking businesses from their “casino” investment banking arms, but gave the UK’s biggest banks until 2019 to do so – longer than had been expected. Clegg said he was “pretty confident” that the 2019 deadline was merely a “backstop date”, adding that he wanted the legislation in place “as quickly as possible”. “As long as we legislate during this parliament I suspect, actually, the changes will be implemented well before 2019,” he told BBC Radio 4′s Today programme. His claims appeared at odds with the line taken by David Cameron last week. The prime minister said the 2019 deadline had been recommended so the UK reforms coincided with the date when new international capital standards must be in place. Clegg outlined his views on the timeline for change as he underlined Liberal Democrat determination to deliver changes in the way banks operate, including pay and bonuses. Asked when the legislation on the Vickers recommendation would be introduced, he said the government would “legislate in full” by the end of this parliament so there was “no risk of slippage and somehow kicking it into the long grass”. “On that, we have been utterly unambiguous,” he said. Clegg added that he would like the measures to be included in the financial services bill, which has just started its passage through parliament, if it were possible to do so. But he said: “I think all of us at the top of government, including the chancellor, would like to see this done as quickly as possible. Quite sensibly, George Osborne [the chancellor] and the Treasury have said this is an immensely complicated issue, exactly as I have discovered as I have delved into the technicalities of how a ring-fence would work. “It’s extraordinarily technical, but we are not going to make promises about doing it more quickly than we think we might, and we need a little bit of time to get the details right. “Vickers has said all of this needs to be implemented by, at the latest, 2019. I’m pretty confident that … is a backstop date.” Speaking as Lib Dem delegates congregated for the fourth day of their annual party conference, Clegg was also asked whether he had softened his stance on bank bonuses, which he had previously called “gratuitously offensive”. He admitted he would have liked more progress, but said those at the top of banks in state ownership had “legally watertight” contracts, signed before the coalition came into power. He cited Project Merlin – a deal struck earlier this year under which the largest UK banks pledged to lend about £190bn to businesses, including £76bn to small firms, this year. Clegg said progress was being made, but made it clear that, if banks did not deliver on Project Merlin, “all bets are off”. He also used the interview to defend the government’s deficit reduction strategy, arguing that changing course now would be “exactly the wrong thing to do”. Citing the downgrading of Italy’s ability to service its own debts, he said governments that did not show the political will to balance their own books “lose control over their own destiny”. But he added that deficit reduction alone was not the “magic recipe for growth”. “Deficit reduction is not everything,” he said. “You don’t create growth simply by balancing the books. “There are other … there are so-called supply-side measures, you bring taxes and regulation down for businesses, but there is also – and this is the thing that we’ve been talking about more in the Liberal Democrat conference – there are things government can do to stimulate both confidence and demand.” Talking about the eurozone crisis, he said no one foresaw that the rules set up when the zone was created would be so spectacularly ignored and broken. He blamed the French and German governments for not “looking after their affairs properly”, leading to problems throughout the zone. Clegg said he thought it very unlikely that Britain would join the euro while he was Lib Dem leader. “I doubt very, very much that, during my political lifetime – certainly as the leader of the Liberal Democrats – that we will see the UK enter into the euro,” he said. And he reaffirmed that the he intended to “see this coalition through” to the general election “and beyond”, as he played down suggestions that his wife had pleaded with him to leave his position in 2015. “There are so many things I want to tell you in this very intimate conversation when no one’s listening, but I can’t tell you about conversations Miriam and I have,” he said. Liberal Democrat conference 2011 Economic policy Nick Clegg Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrat conference David Cameron George Osborne Liberal-Conservative coalition Banking reform Banking Financial sector Banks and building societies Hélène Mulholland guardian.co.uk
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Openly gay people will now be able to serve in the US military after repeal of controversial 18-year-old DADT law An 18-year-old law that prevented serving US military personnel from disclosing that they were gay has been formally repealed. At one minute past midnight eastern time (0401 GMT), the controversial don’t ask don’t tell (DADT) law was abolished after its repeal was signed into law some nine months ago . Introduced by President Clinton in 1993 as a compromise step to full equality, DADT allowed gay and lesbian members of the military to serve only if their sexuality remained secret or was not reported. The Servicemembers Legal Defense Network estimates that since the law’s introduction, 13,000 gay men and lesbians have been discharged after their sexual orientation was revealed. In some cases dismissals were made on the basis of testimony from jilted lovers or those with personal grievances. Barack Obama had pledged to overturn DADT during his 2008 election campaign, but action on the issue appeared stalled until his January 2010 state of the union speech. Injecting fresh energy into the cause Obama said, “This year, I will work with Congress and our military to finally repeal the law that denies gay Americans the right to serve the country they love because of who they are.” The call was met with stony silence from members of the military seated in front of the president, who is also commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Days later, then defence secretary Robert Gates told Senate hearings : “The question before us is not whether the military prepares to make this change, but how we … best prepare for it. We have received our orders from the commander-in-chief and we are moving out accordingly.” In March 2010 the Pentagon relaxed rules surrounding DADT. The military decided to no longer investigate anonymous complaints and third party testimony had to be sworn under oath. An internal survey commissioned by the Pentagon and released last year found that two-thirds of all military personnel supported the repeal. Navy Lt Gary Ross 33, and Dan Swezy, a 49-year-old civilian, travelled from their home in Arizona to get married in Vermont and take advantage of the law’s repeal the moment it came into effect. The two men recited vows before family and friends at a ceremony which began at 11.45pm on Monday night. Just after midnight, the partners of 11 years were married. “I think it was a beautiful ceremony. The emotions really hit me … but it’s finally official,” Ross said. Polls consistently showed that roughly two-thirds of Americans believe that gay men and lesbians should be able to disclose their sexual orientation and serve openly. US military Gay rights United States Shiv Malik guardian.co.uk
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