Egypt’s internet cutoff has failed in its central aim, but there may yet be further harms As recently as a week ago, Egypt ‘s internet was extraordinary in the Arab world for its freedom. For more than a decade, the regime has adhered to a hands-off policy, leaving unblocked everything from rumours about President Hosni Mubarak’s health to videos of police beatings. Unlike most of its regional neighbours and other authoritarian regimes, Egypt’s government never built or required sophisticated technical infrastructures of censorship. (Of course, the country has hardly been a paradise of free expression: the state security forces have vigorously suppressed dissent through surveillance, arbitrary detentions and relentless intimidation of writers and editors.) Partly as a result of its liberal policies, Egypt became a hub for internet and mobile network investment, home to a thriving and competitive communications sector that pioneered free dial-up services, achieved impressive rates of access and use, and offered speedy wireless and broadband networks at relatively low prices. Indeed, Egypt is today one of the major crossing points for the underwater fibre-optic cables that interconnect the regions of the globe. But last Thursday, the Mubarak regime shattered a decade’s worth of accomplishment by issuing the order to shut down the mobile networks and internet links. Since the internet age dawned in the early 90s, no widely connected country had disconnected itself entirely. The starkness and suddenness of Egypt’s reversal – from unrestricted to unreachable – marks one of the many tragedies of the Mubarak regime’s brutal and hamfisted response to last week’s emergence of citizen protests. The internet cutoff shows how the details of infrastructure matter. Despite having no large-scale or centralised censorship apparatus, Egypt was still able to shut down its communications in a matter of minutes. This was possible because Egypt permitted only three wireless carriers to operate, and required all internet service providers (ISPs) to funnel their traffic through a handful of international links. Confronted with mass demonstrations and fearful about a populace able to organise itself, the government had to order fewer than a dozen companies to shut down their networks and disconnect their routers from the global internet. The blackout has proved increasingly ineffective. A handful of networks have remained connected, including one independent ISP, the country’s academic and research network, and a few major banks, businesses and government institutions. Whether these reflect deliberate defiance, privileged connections, or tactical exceptions –one might imagine, for example, that members of Mubarak’s family and inner circle would want to have Internet access to move money, buy tickets, or make hotel reservations abroad — is as yet unknown. Moreover, innovative Egyptians are finding ways to overcome the block. They are relaying information by voice, exploiting small and unnoticed openings in the digital firewall, and dusting off old modems to tap foreign dial-up services. For democracies, one lesson here is clear: diversity and complexity in our network architectures is a very good thing. Likewise, enforcement of public policies such as network neutrality – the
Continue reading …The challenge for the US this week is to raise the temperature delicately, rather than seeking to call the global shots On an emotional level, everyone wants Barack Obama to thunder that Hosni Mubarak must go. And there are bad reasons why the US
Continue reading …What is the likelihood of the current unrest in Egypt spreading to other countries in the region? Syria Syria’s small private media sector has featured the story prominently. State media have found it too big a deal to ignore. Surprising many, Bouthaina Shaaban, an adviser to President Bashar al-Assad, dedicated her newspaper column to the streets of Cairo, Tunis, Amman and Sana’a, saying the west did not know how to respond to collective Arab anger. Syria seems as perplexed. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Assad said circumstances in his country would not stir the rage of the masses. However, he did pledge reform. Over the past week, government ministers have announced subsidies and aid for the poor. Today teachers were granted interest-free loans for laptops, and some public officials were charged with corruption in the city of Aleppo. Syria last faced serious unrest in 1982 in the city of Hama, when many thousands were killed in an abortive revolt by the Muslim Brotherhood. Jordan A prime candidate for catching the Egyptian contagion. Protests over poverty, inflation, unemployment, corruption and a lack of democracy have been going on for weeks. King Abdullah II is less popular than his late father, King Hussein, and Queen Rania’s global fame is not matched by enthusiasm in the country itself. Samir al-Rifa’i, the prime minister, has become a lightning rod for discontent, though he recently found $550m in subsidies for fuel and staples such as sugar, rice and gas. The package included pay rises for civil servants and security personnel. An active opposition role is now being played by the country’s Islamic Action Front, which is calling for political reform, but still treading carefully. “There is no comparison between Egypt and Jordan,” IAF leader Hamzeh Mansur said on Monday. “The people there demand a regime change, but here we ask for political reforms and an elected government.” Abdullah has promised reforms, particularly on an election law. But it is unlikely that he will surrender his right to appoint the prime minister and cabinet officials. Unemployment is officially around 14% in the country of six million people, 70% of them under 30. The minimum wage is $211 a month. Poverty levels are 25%, while the capital, Amman, is the most expensive city in the Arab world. Like Egypt, Jordan is a close ally of the US, and is the only other Arab country (apart from distant Mauritania) to have a peace treaty with Israel. But it has efficient security forces, the Mukhabarat secret service, and a tame media. Libya Sandwiched between momentous events in Egypt and Tunisia, Libya has so far escaped any large-scale unrest. Muammar Gaddafi, whose 41 years in power outstrips Hosni Mubarak’s 29, presides over a tightly controlled regime that is changing very slowly and is wealthy enough to do it in a way that relieves rather than worsens tensions. The still-tribal nature of Libyan society means Gaddafi controls not only the army and security forces, which would almost certainly step in if there was serious political upheaval, but also other key constituencies. Recent protests in Benghazi and Derna over housing shortages were seized upon as evidence of spreading trouble, but local grievances have not coalesced into opposition at the national level, Libyan opposition figures admit. Like Egypt and Tunisia, Libya has a young population and high unemployment but its oil resources mean it is far wealthier. The Gulf If all eyes in the Arab world are on Egypt, nowhere in the region seems less likely to see similar events than Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states. Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah rushed to telephone Hosni Mubarak to express his support, after welcoming Tunisia’s exiled leader Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali to a gilded exile in Jeddah. Impoverished Yemen apart, all the Gulf states are hereditary monarchies with either no political parties or little in the way of representative government. Expectations are correspondingly low. Saudi municipal elections in 2005 were a limited exercise that has not been repeated. The Saudis control the world’s largest known reserves of oil and are a strategic US ally. Tiny Qatar, the richest of them all, leads the region in using wealth to provide subsidised education and food to buy the acquiescence if not the loyalty of their people – who in several countries are outnumbered by expatriate foreigners. Algeria Algeria has banned all marches “for security reasons” amid fears that the wave of unrest spreading through north Africa could destabilise the country. But a senior ally of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika said Algeria would escape an uprising because protesters were not demanding political reform. Abdelaziz Belkhadem, head of the ruling FLN party and a cabinet minster, said the government could be doing more but added: “Protesters in Algeria want better social and economic conditions. They have not made political demands as is the case in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Jordan.” Street protests have been banned in Algeria since 2001 when one descended into a riot, leaving eight people dead and hundreds injured. Security forces in Algiers have been reinforced to combat a feared attack by Islamist extremists after a series of suicide attacks in 2007. A march to demand the “departure of the regime” is planned for Saturday 12 February in Algiers by the newly-formed National Co-ordination for Change and Democracy group, which includes opposition movements and other civil organisations. Yemen The opposition coalition, the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), has called for nationwide protests on Thursday after talks with President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s ruling party failed to materialise. Opposition members were in discussions with EU officials yesterday in Sana’a to try and find a way of resuming a dialogue with Saleh’s ruling GPC. The biggest obstacle is a proposed constitutional change that would abolish presidential term limits and the timing of the upcoming parliamentary election. A JMP spokesman said: “These protests will be bigger than last week’s; tens of thousands will be demonstrating across Yemen calling for Saleh to leave.” Saleh has taken steps to defuse tensions, raising salaries for the army and civil servants and rebutting claims that he plans to install his son, Ahmed, as his successor. Yesterday he announced plans to expand Yemen’s limited social security system Egypt Middle East Jordan Syria Saudi Arabia Algeria Yemen Ian Black guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …Opec secretary general expresses concern with tension throughout region and armed guards at Suez canal Fears that the turmoil in Egypt could disrupt oil shipments passing through the Suez canal and engulf the Middle East drove the price of Brent crude oil through the $100 barrier for the first time in over two years. The price of a barrel of the benchmark Brent crude soared by more than $1.50 to as high as $101.08 a barrel as the protests against President Hosni Mubarak’s regime intensified. Prices are now at their highest since September 2008, at the start of the financial crisis. Abdullah Al-Badri, secretary general of Opec, the cartel of oil producers, expressed concern about the situation in Egypt and added that Opec did “not want 2008 to be repeated”, referring to when oil prices hit a record $147. But he said the cartel would not increase production on the back of the surge in prices as he believed there was no shortage of oil. Since August, oil prices have been steadily increasing from around $70 on the back of higher demand as the global economy recovers from the downturn, fuelling inflation. The latest rise in oil prices will put further pressure on the British government to head off a rise in fuel duty planned for April. David Cameron gave the latest hint in an interview with the BBC this morning that the budget on 23 March could include a “fuel stabiliser” which would cut the level of fuel duty motorists have to pay when oil prices rise. Last week the price of diesel at the pump in the UK reached a new high, hitting 133.26p a litre on average . The price of fuel is a concern for the government as it was one of the reasons for the rise in inflation, measured by the consumer price index, in December. In turn, higher inflation could put pressure on policy makers to hike interest rates. Egypt is not a major oil producer but it controls the 120-mile Suez canal and the 200-mile Suez-Mediterranean pipeline which together carry about 2m barrels of oil each day, about 2.5% of demand globally. No major disruption to supplies has been reported after almost a week of violent protests although some ports’ operations have been slowed. Analysts said that oil prices were rising on concerns that the turmoil could spread into neighbouring countries or even major oil producers further afield, such as Saudi Arabia. The unrest in Egypt follows the recent overthrow of the regime in Tunisia, adding to the nervousness that more chaos could engulf the Middle East, which accounts for almost a third of the world’s oil production. The Egyptian authorities have said that the Suez canal is operating normally, with armed guards protecting the crucial waterway linking the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. Barclays Capital warned that some ships could be attacked if the situation deteriorates and that if a radical anti-western government seized power it could close the canal. If the canal was unavailable oil tankers would have to sail around Africa to transport oil from the Middle East to America – an extra 6,000 miles. “We cannot ignore the possibility that the chaos will spill over from Egypt into oil-producing nations,” said Kenji Sekiguchi of Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management. Badri said Opec ministers would discuss whether they needed to pump more oil to bring down prices at an energy conference in Saudi Arabia later this month but said a formal decision to increase production quotas was unlikely. Opec’s next formal meeting takes place in June. Oil Oil and gas companies Energy industry Egypt Middle East Tim Webb Graeme Wearden guardian.co.uk
Continue reading …Mayors Against Illegal Guns , a group of more than 550 U.S. mayors, is calling for a background check system that will keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people. (I know here in Philadelphia, mayors have been continuously stymied by the NRA-owned state legislature every time they try to put even small roadblocks in the way of gun purchase on demand.) To make a point, NYC for the second year sent undercover investigators to one of the largest Phoenix gun shows — two weeks after Rep. Gabby Giffords was shot — to illustrate how easy it is to use the gun show loophole to illegally buy weapons: On January 23, 2011, undercover investigators working for the City of New York attended the Crossroads of the World gun show in Phoenix. One investigator purchased a Glock 9 mm semiautomatic pistol without a background check. Because the gun dealer is a private seller and not a federally licensed firearms dealer , no background check was required and the transaction was apparently legal, assuming the seller was, in fact, an “occasional seller.” This gap in federal law that enables private sellers to sell guns without background checks is sometimes called the Gun Show Loophole because such sellers congregate at gun shows. The investigator also purchased 33-round extended magazines for the Glock from a separate seller – also legal because the 1994 law that banned such sales expired in 2004. Gun shows have been found to be major sources of guns used in crimes. According to the ATF, 30 percent of guns involved in federal illegal gun trafficking investigations are connected to gun shows. Because no records are kept, guns sold by private sellers at gun shows become virtually untraceable. Two private sellers failed integrity tests by illegally selling guns to an undercover investigator. Each seller sold a 9 mm semiautomatic pistol, one Sig Sauer and one Smith & Wesson, to an undercover investigator even after he declared that he “probably couldn’t pass” a background check . That statement should have immediately stopped the sale because even though occasional sellers are not required to run background checks using the FBI database, it is a federal felony for them to sell guns to people they have reason to believe are prohibited purchasers. In 2009, the City of New York conducted a similar investigation and documented problems at seven gun shows in three states. Investigators found private dealers who sold to those who said they could not pass a background check, including two sellers who failed at multiple shows. In total, 19 of the 30 private sellers approached in 2009 failed the test. Since the 2009 investigation, four of the seven gun shows documented on video have changed their practices. The operator of the Big Reno Show, and the owner of the venue, the Grand Sierra Resort and Casino, have each signed agreements with the City of New York agreeing to end no-background check gun sales. The Big Reno Show is one of the nation’s largest gun shows. It has 1,300 tables of exhibits, at the time of the investigation there were 120 private sellers at the show offering 1,700 guns for sale. The operator of the Big Reno Show has also prevented any seller caught breaking the law in the undercover investigation from returning to the show . The agreement stipulates that all sales by private party sellers will be processed through licensed gun dealers who will perform background checks. Bill Goodman’s Gun and Knife Shows promotes three of the seven shows visited by the City in 2009, they were held at the Hara Arena and Sharonville Convention Center in Ohio and at the Tennessee State Fairgrounds in Nashville. The promoter has ended no-background check sales at all 34 shows that he promotes. In 2009, the City turned over all of its investigative materials on illegal sales to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco Firearms and Explosives (ATF). One of the sellers caught on tape at the Big Reno gun show, Robert Daly, was the subject of an ATF search warrant in July 2010. When the warrant was executed at Daly’s home in Mesa, Arizona, ATF agents seized 799 guns. The Justice Department has charged him with illegally selling these guns at gun shows. Yep. Even if you’re selling hundreds of guns at gun shows, you’re still considered to be a “private seller” and not a dealer. Isn’t that nice? In light of recent events, even politicians have to see that it’s time to keep guns out of the hands of high-risk buyers. You’d think that Arizona, whose far-right activists are always screaming about horrific crimes allegedly committed by Mexicans sneaking across the border, would catch on to the concept that loose gun sale practices put all of us at risk. From last week: In a case aimed at stemming the flow of U.S. weapons to the Mexican drug war, federal authorities indicted 20 men Tuesday on charges of buying an estimated 700 weapons in Arizona and conspiring to transfer them across the border, chiefly to the Sinaloa drug cartel. The arrests, carried out by at least 100 federal agents, began early Tuesday, the latest crackdown targeting an international trafficking network that authorities say has seen as many as 60,000 weapons seized in Mexico and traced to U.S. sources . Even if you don’t care about your loved ones getting blown away, Arizona, maybe you could cut the rest of us a break.
Continue reading …The Bangles’ Walk Like an Egyptian is an unlikely choice of protest song So, the title of the Bangles’ 1987 hit Walk Like An Egyptian has been co-opted as a revolutionary slogan. Obviously, if this furthers the cause of democracy, all to the good, but given that the lyrics comprise every imaginable cliche about Egyptians strung together, it seems not unlike Mancunians taking to the streets in a revolutionary tumult wearing T-shirts that say MATCHSTALK MEN AND MATCHSTALK CATS AND DOGS. Whatever next in the world of pro-democracy demonstrations intersecting with 80s AOR tracks tenuously linked to the location of said uprising? Protesters on the streets of Beijing in T-shirts reading China In
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