Central Cairo has been the site of numerous protest signs, ranging from the poignant to the giggle-incuding. This one straddles a line between the two, invoking dark humor. It says, in reference to Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak: “Hitler committed suicide, you can too.”
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Many Egyptians feel the only ones benefitting from the country’s wealth are businessmen with ties to the ruling National Democratic Party. How did Egypt become so corrupt? And what can a new government really do about it?
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Africa’s largest country is about to be split into two, and there is much that needs to be done politically, economically – and, above all, democratically The events in Cairo are going to provide an uneasy backdrop to President Omar al-Bashir ‘s attempts to maintain his monopoly on power in Egypt’s neighbour, Sudan . One lesson that must surely be emerging from the tumult in Egypt is that it is not a good idea to prop up dictators in order to buy peace. Although he stated that his government would accept the southern Sudan referendum result, officially announced on Monday to have been 98.8% in favour of secession, any arrangement to reward Bashir for allowing the south to go peacefully – such as renewed proposals to postpone the international criminal court’s indictments against him reported by Africa Confidential – should perhaps not be at the expense of allowing a renewed clampdown on freedoms in the north. Sudan’s impending division is going to create not just one new state but two: Sudan and “South Sudan”. Both will require new constitutions. The north’s numerous opposition groups insist that this process needs to be inclusive and must not simply entrench a regime that seized power 22 years ago in a military coup and whose failure to compromise has led to the country’s breakup. Bashir has stated that he will remove concessions for minorities in the north and enforce Islamic law more rigidly following the country’s division. Ahmed Adam Hussein, spokesman for the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), complains that the outside world has taken its eye off the ball at this crucial stage. “Unfortunately, international attention on Sudan has been distracted by the events in Egypt – but the Cairo revolution will soon spread to Khartoum and the world will have to pay attention. If Hosni Mubarak has passed his sell-by date, where does that leave Bashir? Surely the international community doesn’t want to prop up another failing dictator.” With a mounting economic crisis that will only be made worse by the loss of a substantial part of the $2bn a year that it received from the 50% share of South Sudan’s oil revenues granted by the comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) – potentially losing more if Abyei and the nearby Heglig area are deemed to belong to the south – the regime in Khartoum is facing numerous challenges in addition to the inevitable loss of prestige ensuing from the secession of the south. Recent protests in Khartoum have resulted in the closure of several universities and newspapers, deployment of the riot police and the arrest of opposition leaders, including Bashir’s former mentor Hassan al-Turabi. Opponents point to the fact that Sudan has already overthrown two previous dictators in popular uprisings – Jaafar Nimeiri in 1985 and Ibrahim Aboud in 1966 – and they are eager to follow the Egyptians, Sudan’s traditional mentors, with their own facebook revolution . Preparations for a constitution for the new northern state are complicated by the uncertain status of its peripheral regions. There are currently six areas that have differing status according to three separate peace agreements. Abyei and the two contested areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile are subject to different protocols of the main north-south peace agreement, while Darfur and east Sudan have their own respective peace deals. With renewed heavy fighting across western Sudan, the May 2006 Darfur peace agreement clearly has not yet delivered, and the only rebel faction to have signed, Minni Minawi’s wing of the Sudan Liberation Movement is again fighting against the government . Although most Darfuri factions have agreed to join in the Doha peace talks, Khartoum now insists the negotiations be held in Darfur. The October 2006 Asmara peace agreement for eastern Sudan has so far been more successful – despite being supervised by the Eritrean army – in that there has actually been an end to hostilities in the east. But there has growing unrest among the area’s Beja majority in the aftermath of last April’s flawed elections, which failed to gain them significant representation at either state or national level. The demarcation of a new north-south border awaits agreement on a number of disputed areas, as well as resolution of the impasse over the key area of Abyei. The most potentially explosive dispute centres on Heglig , the oil-rich eastern portion of the disputed enclave that was excluded by the 2009 permanent court of arbitration ruling. Khartoum claims that Heglig is now part of South Kordofan, but Juba says it belongs to south Sudan’s Unity state. This has not only become the most militarised part of the disputed border but also impacts on the rest of South Kordofan, which is supposed to conduct a much-delayed and ill-defined process of “popular consultation” on its future status. The former SPLA leader John Garang explained to me during the CPA negotiations that the popular consultation agreed for the two contested areas was “exactly the same as the self-determination granted to the people of south Sudan and Abyei through referendum, except it will be conducted by their elected representatives rather than the people themselves”. Because South Kordofan has not yet conducted state elections, due to severe irregularities in the last census, which failed to enumerate the areas still controlled by the former rebels, the process is now more than two years overdue. State elections are now scheduled for May, leaving little time to complete the consultation process before the CPA expires in July. Meanwhile, the local Nuba population, who largely supported the SPLA because they believed in Garang’s vision of a “united, secular new Sudan”, fear for their future after the south achieves independence. A report by Pax Cristi warns that failure to complete the process in time will deepen the existing political malaise and could, at worst, reignite conflict. With only five months left before Africa’s largest nation splits into two, much clearly still remains to be done. Egypt’s example also surely demonstrates the need for it to be done democratically. Egypt Sudan Omar al-Bashir Peter Moszynski guardian.co.uk
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Gaza is facing acute fuel shortages as smuggled diesel and petrol supplies from Egypt are rapidly running out Gaza is facing acute fuel shortages as a result of the unrest in neighbouring Egypt, which has caused supplies of petrol and diesel smuggled through tunnels to almost dry up. Although some fuel is imported into the Gaza Strip from Israel, it costs three times as much as diesel and petrol smuggled in from Egypt. Gazans depend on diesel for generators during power cuts of around eight hours a day. Long queues of cars, motorcycles and people on foot carrying containers have formed at gas stations. Smuggled construction materials and Egyptian cigarettes are also in short supply. “For the past week I have not brought any fuel in,” said Abu Jandal, a tunnel operator in Rafah, a few metres from the border. “It has created huge demand in Gaza.” Bridges and roads leading to the border had been closed, he said, although early this week the supply route reopened. A dealer on the phone from Egypt told him that clashes in the Sinai between security forces and Bedouin Arabs, the Gazans’ main smuggling partners, were contributing to the difficulties. “It is no matter if my business is affected,” he said. “We are hoping the Egyptian people will be liberated from injustice.” Abu Youssef (none of the tunnel operators were willing to give their real names) said his business of importing ceramics for use in construction had been suspended. “Now we are smuggling scrap metal out of Gaza into Egypt.” The price of a 1 ton bag of smuggled cement had increased from 550 shekels (£92) to 800 since the unrest began, said Atala. In his view, the Egyptian protesters were “crazy”. “They don’t appreciate the benefit of Mubarak. Who you know is better than who you don’t know. We had change here, and we got shit as a result.” Many of the tents housing the tunnel shafts were deserted on Monday, and the Egyptian side of the border was unusually quiet with no visible sign of the Egyptian army. The border crossing, normally open five days a week to allow the exit of limited numbers of Gazans, mostly students and those requiring urgent medical treatment, has been closed for more than a week. Hamas officials are patrolling the area to prevent people exiting the Gaza Strip through the tunnels. The Guardian’s car was waved through after inspection. “Make sure that all three of you come back,” the official said. Gaza Middle East Palestinian territories Egypt Harriet Sherwood guardian.co.uk
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Every year millions of Chinese students graduate from universities across the country, with numbers increasing. Despite the country’s booming economy, many of them have difficulties finding work. Fewer vacancies and more competition means that not everyone can be certain of finding a job, especially not a well-paid one.
Continue reading …This is no 1989 moment for the Arab world | Harris Mylonas and Wilder Bullard
February 8, 2011 No Comment
Unlike the ‘third wave’ of democratisation in eastern Europe, uprisings in the Middle East risk leaving a corridor of failed states Analogies will be drawn in the coming weeks between the recent popular uprisings, most notably in Egypt , and the events beginning in 1989 and continuing into the early 1990s that brought democracy to much of the former Eastern bloc. In what is known as the third wave of democratisation (the first being in the early 1800s and the second being after the second world war), the Solidarity movement in Poland informed the peaceful transitions in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the transition to democracy in Hungary and the reunification of Germany. It is no stretch to say that the political leadership and leaders of the opposition movements learned from one another throughout the tumult of the 1980s and into the 1990s. Much as social media today has been touted as a spur to democratic movements in the Middle East, pirate radio bombarded the Eastern bloc with information about democratic successes in other countries, as well as the ominous alternative posed by Tiananmen Square . But while the wave following the fall of the Berlin Wall created a period of unprecedented security across the European continent, the current wave of uprisings could create a corridor of failed states stretching from the Democratic Republic of Congo to the frontiers of Europe in southern Turkey. The “fourth wave” narrative goes something like this: just as a host of communist dictators – Jaruzelski in Poland, Honecker in Germany and Németh in Hungary – were swept away by the third wave, the fall of Bakiev in Kyrgyzstan and Ben Ali in Tunisia and the uncertain perches of Mubarak in Egypt and Saleh in Yemen signal a new wave of democratisation. The continuing crisis in Egypt, Saleh’s announcement that he will not seek re-election, the reshuffling of the Jordanian cabinet and whispers of protest in Syria contain the promise of a “1989 moment” throughout the greater Middle East. But important differences between recent events and the third wave are already apparent. In the third wave, Romania was the only country that experienced a violent transition to democracy. Things look different this time around, in great part because today’s nondemocratic leaders took their own lessons from the third wave. Instead of tanks and troops, and top-down repression a la Tiananmen Square the new oppressors of democratisation are the Basij , the “pro-government protesters,” the plainclothes security personnel, the agents provocateurs inciting violence and instability. As the iron curtain began to fall in Europe, leaders such as Honecker and Jaruzelski weighed the costs of violent repression on the stability of their regimes, essentially deciding between increased authoritarianism and liberalisation. If there truly is a “new wave”, it is characterised by a group of regimes that have learned to pass the decision between power and stability on to the protestors by creating environments of insecurity and fostering the conditions for state failure through tactics such as throwing open the prison doors and sponsoring thugs engaged in street violence. The opposition movements are left to decide whether to continue to press for their ideal outcome while the apparatus of governance teeters closer to collapse, or to negotiate with the regime while facing the potential erosion of the movement’s credibility. Further complicating this “new wave” is the role political Islam plays in western security circles. The transition of Soviet bloc states into the democratic fold was seen and understood as a victory against an ideological enemy: the vast USSR. The third wave delegitimated the Soviet style of governance as the massive bureaucratic state crumbled under increasing pressure for political liberalisation, both internally and externally. In the “new wave”, things are different. In the eyes of the west, the crowds are as likely to be its ideological enemies as are the regimes in power – autocracy in the presidential palace is balanced by the spectre of radical Islam in the streets. Whether these fears are well grounded remains to be seen, but western states look to the electoral successes of Hamas and Hezbollah as establishing a worrying precedent in the region. And for all the democratising potential of social media, today’s improved analogue to Radio Free Europe , its powers are particularised and circumscribed. While it is true that social media have increased the capacity of the population to hold autocrats more accountable, they cannot solve pressing problems such as blocked social mobility and sky-high unemployment rates. Even if today’s movements manage to oust dictators and move toward free and fair elections, the frustrations and grievances of the populations supporting the movements will not necessarily be addressed. Such a development might lead to further disillusionment inside the protest movements – and this time with democracy. The characteristics of this “new wave” matter for reasons that go beyond the potential satisfaction of seeing democracy flourish in new spots on the globe. Where in the past authoritarian leaders clamped down on their populations, snuffing democracy but maintaining security, there seems to be an emerging trend of authoritarian leaders letting their states collapse like poorly built houses of cards, with no guarantee of democracy or security. While it is possible that the Egyptian uprising may result in a Turkish-style democratic state, a corridor of state failure from Kinshasa to Beirut is also not an unlikely outcome. That such stakes are now in play only underscores the necessity of re-examining the west’s historical role in supporting the type of personalistic dictatorships that are now under siege, and the familiar cultural arguments that these states have never been democratic – and lack the capacity ever to be become democratic. Protest Egypt Tunisia Yemen Middle East Wilder Bullard Harris Mylonas guardian.co.uk
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All we in the Muslim Brotherhood want is for President Mubarak to go and real democracy to prevail As the past fortnight has underlined, Egypt occupies a leading role in one of the most vital and volatile regions in the world. However, this great country has been ruled by an autocratic regime for more than 30 years, and left riddled with corruption, poverty, inequality and insecurity. With millions condemned to live in squalor, astronomical unemployment rates, political suppression and absence of basic freedoms, the Egyptian people have been seething with anger, frustration and discontent for years. Thousands of political dissidents have been dragged before military courts and sentenced to years in prison despite civil courts ordering their release. Elections were rigged on an unimaginable scale – forcing Egyptians, and especially the young, into a state of utter desperation. The Muslim Brotherhood , which was established in 1928, is at the heart of Egyptian society, and therefore has come in for much of the strife and difficulty that faced the entire country as a result of the regime’s policies and practices. As a political movement with wide appeal and support, it was constantly targeted by some of the most brutal government measures. It was banned from public life despite the fact that most people considered it to be the main opposition organisation. Despite numerous attempts to tarnish the Muslim Brotherhood’s reputation inside Egypt and beyond, the tenets of our movement could not be clearer or more unequivocal. We aim to remove all forms of injustice, tyranny, autocracy and dictatorship, and we call for the implementation of a democratic multiparty all-inclusive political system that excludes no one. Accusations that we aim to dominate or hegemonise the political system could not be further from the truth, and all our literature and public statements emphasise that we see ourselves as part of the fabric of Egyptian social and political life. So we deserve an equal opportunity to work for the prosperity of Egypt through promoting our message and solutions, just like all other groupings. For years we have been warning the regime that matters were coming to a head and that radical change was inevitable if we were to achieve internal peace, security and stability. The revolution sweeping Egypt is a result of the eruption of anger and frustration built up over many years of abject failure and widespread corruption. Uniquely this moment is one that no political party can claim to own, to lead or to have triggered. Rather, it was a natural reaction by the population to the miserable state of its country. Egypt’s youth have been the heroes of the events. The maturity, shrewdness, resilience, intelligence and patriotism exemplified by the young people in Cairo’s Tahrir Square and in dozens of other Egyptian cities has been refreshing and uplifting for the entire country. It was just what a deeply despondent population needed, and has it breathed life into a society all but resigned to exist under a corrupt dictator who would then hand over to his son. The Muslim Brotherhood has been with those protesters from the very start, and continues to share their demands that a peaceful transfer of power is carried out immediately, and freedom in all senses is realised throughout Egypt. There can be no question that genuine democracy must prevail; and while the Muslim Brotherhood is unequivocal regarding its basis in Islamic thought, it rejects any attempt to enforce any ideological line upon the Egyptian people. Over the past few days, we have been working with the youth leaders and our partners in the opposition to bring this revolution to its only satisfactory outcome. We have decided to engage in a dialogue between political parties and the appointed vice president and other officials to explore directly their commitment to implement the people’s demands and willingness to respond to them positively. The outcome so far is far from sufficient. Meanwhile, the unprecedented nationwide protests continue – until the people’s goals are achieved. The Muslim Brotherhood along with the whole nation is unrelenting in its demand that President Hosni Mubarak stands down immediately. We want the officials responsible for the bloodshed that marred the peaceful protests to be brought to trialp; the parliamentary and local councils formed by rigged elections to be disbanded; the immediate cessation of the emergency law ; and the formation of an interim national government until free fair and transparent elections are held under full legal and judicial supervision. The Muslim Brotherhood will never compromise on its demands for the complete separation and independence of authorities, the freedom to form political parties and community groups, and the freedom of the press and media. Should these be implemented – and we are determined they will – Egypt will be able to assume its place as a positive regional player and influential state that can interact with the international community on the basis of mutual respect and shared interests. The world cannot do without an Egypt that is at peace with itself and capable of playing its full role in the world. Egypt Protest Islam Hosni Mubarak Religion Middle East Mohammad Mursi guardian.co.uk
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Inspired by protests in Egypt and Tunisia, rumblings of discontent are growing across the region. Could the pro-democracy protests in Egypt generate an unstoppable momentum for political reform across the Arab world?
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Tunisia’s parliament has passed emergency powers for the interim President. The unprecedented move came as the main ruling party the RCD, was suspended from all political activity. Al Jazeera’s Nazanine Moshiri has the story from Tunis.
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