Pew Poll: Tsunami
All of the polls are starting to line up very nicely : Democrats are facing an electoral landscape more inhospitable than anyone could have imagined just months ago, according to new survey data from the Pew Research Center. The Pew Research Center survey released Thursday found many troubling signs for Democrats. Among them, Republicans now hold significant advantages among both men and women, as well as in the 77 most competitive House districts. First, the toplines. Among likely voters, Republicans have a 10 point advantage on the generic ballot test — 50 percent to 40 percent – up from a seven-point edge last month. If the Democratic base is coming home, the Republican base is intensifying further. Among independent voters, Republicans also have a significant advantage. They are breaking for the GOP by a 19-point margin, 49 percent to 30 percent. Drilling down into the districts where the battle for the House is being contested, things get worse for Democrats. In the 77 most competitive House districts, Republicans hold a 12 point advantage among likely voters — 51 percent to 39 percent. These numbers indicate that prediction of a major Republican landslide – greater than the GOP’s gains in the 1994 elections are a very real possibility. My over/under has been 56 House seats, but perhaps I’m too conservative (pardon the pun).
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on October 21, 2010. Filed under