Egyptian army calls the shots as nation embarks on democratic transition

• Veteran commander will steer Egyptian political reforms • Uncertainty over military’s role following years of control Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, the 75-year-old commander of Egypt’s armed forces and head of the Supreme Military Council, is the new face of power in Cairo now that Hosni Mubarak has finally stepped down. Tantawi is in charge of steering the country through political reforms that should change the way Egypt has been ruled for nearly 60 years – a prospect that is already sending shockwaves across the Arab world. It is a task which is also likely to pose problems for an institution that is keen on preserving its own power, privileges and status. The military council is expected to quickly suspend both houses of parliament and rule with the civilian head of the supreme constitutional court for a transitional period of just a few months. A free and fair presidential election has been promised for September. If Tantawi and the generals are still in charge at the end of this year, then the great hopes of the uprising will have been dashed. Last night, Egypt’s military said it would not act as a substitute for a “legitimate” government. A military spokesman, in a brief televised statement, said the armed forces would later announce measures and arrangements to introduce the changes Egyptians want. He also praised Mubarak for his contribution to the nation. It always seemed likely that the army, the most powerful player in Egyptian politics since the 1952 revolution, would step in as the guardian of stability once the unprecedented unrest began. The US, Israel and other Arab regimes will most likely welcome it, keeping their qualms to themselves. And so, for the moment, will many ordinary Egyptians – but only if it is the prelude to far-reaching change. Rule by the military can only be temporary. Mubarak’s exit, the dissolution of what is seen as an illegitimate parliament dominated by the ruling party, key constitutional reforms and abolition of the hated emergency laws are all non-negotiable demands. If those reforms are achieved then Egypt will have witnessed a real, transformative revolution – far beyond the removal of a stubborn 82-year-old president long past his sell-by date. It had seemed clear from the events of recent days – especially the contradictory messages before Mubarak’s last defiant TV address to the nation on Thursday – that the army is divided. Tantawi, privately scorned by younger officers as Mubarak’s “poodle,” is a conservative figure and like his old boss a veteran of wars with Israel. But as the dust cleared, the newspaper al-Ahram reported that the addresses by Mubarak and his vice-president and former spy chief, Omar Suleiman, were in defiance of the wishes of the armed forces. If the military now moves solely to protect its own position, and that of the big businessmen who have done so well out of their links with the regime – then the system will not open up, at least not without repression and bloodshed. Mubarak’s replacement by the military council will mean a resumption of talks that began earlier this week on constitutional and other changes, though they were pronounced dead by opposition groups almost before they began. But with goodwill it should now be possible to amend or rewrite the constitution to allow the election of a new parliament and president. It could, however, all still take months to agree, risking impatience in the streets and new unrest. Egyptian and foreign commentators are sharply aware of how difficult it will be for the military to accept a democratic transition that includes the legalisation of its bugbear, the banned Muslim Brotherhood, the most powerful opposition force in the country. “This is just the end of the beginning,” said Jon Alterman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “Egypt isn’t moving toward democracy, it’s moved into martial law and where it goes is now subject to debate.” Analysts also see risks for the army in the new situation, exposed to demands for a civilian transitional government that could challenge or dilute its own authority or launch investigations into corruption or human rights abuses. The army may also want to avoid an armed clash with the Republican Guards that would seriously destabilise the country and further rob the regime of legitimacy. Another danger, commented the Arabist blogger Issandr Amrani, is that the army could become a target of the protesters. “There’s always been a core of activists who want to see the end of military dominance over Egypt,” he wrote. “It’s not clear whether it’s the majority, or even if this sentiment is echoed in the wider, silent Egyptian public. The army’s key problem … is that they suck at communicating. Their battle to retain public legitimacy may be lost because of bad PR and tone-deafness.” Egypt Hosni Mubarak Middle East Ian Black guardian.co.uk

Posted by on February 11, 2011. Filed under News, Politics, World News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry