Egyptian regime begins to reveal its strategy

Army pledge not to use force may be part of plan to appear open to talks and allow Hosni Mubarak to choose manner of his exit After a week spent caught in the headlights, the Egyptian regime is showing signs of assembling a strategy to extricate itself from its perilous predicament. Whether the strategy can work is another matter entirely. The regime’s survival plan centres on Omar Suleiman, the head of intelligence, President Hosni Mubarak’s close confidant, and newly installed vice-president . At this point, Suleiman is the most powerful man in Egypt, backed by the military (from whence he hails), the security apparatus and a frightened ruling elite hoping to salvage something from the wreckage. Suleiman is, in effect, heading a military junta at this point, with all the principal civilian power positions – the presidency, the vice-presidency, the premiership, the defence and interior ministries – held by former senior officers, and with the military itself in full support. Mubarak is now reduced to the role of figurehead, sheltering behind this clique. But they will not sacrifice him if they can avoid it. There will be no ignominious flight to Saudi Arabia, like Tunisia’s deposed president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali . Mubarak’s pride won’t allow it. The military’s pride won’t allow it. They probably now accept that the old man will have to go, sooner rather than later. But they seem determined that when his departure comes, it will be with dignity, at a time of their collective choosing. As they see it, the honour of the nation demands no less. The army’s pledge not to use violence against peaceful protesters was a canny political move that had Suleiman’s fingerprints all over it. If the armed forces stick to that vow today, it could help avoid the sort of chaotic, escalating confrontations with demonstrators that, in other countries, have turned unrest into fully fledged revolution. The renunciation of force will also play well in the White House and the US media. It meets one of the key concerns voiced by Barack Obama: that a regime closely allied to the US not be seen to be shooting down its own citizens whose only crime is to seek greater freedom. What the army spokesman meant when he said the military recognised the “legitimacy” of the protesters’ demands is open to interpretation, no doubt deliberately. It cannot be assumed this meant Suleiman and the army agree that Mubarak must resign. More likely, it was their way of appearing reasonable and open to negotiation. Part of Suleiman’s plan is immediate talks with the opposition, however defined. Again, this posture will reduce western pressure on the regime. The regime may also be hoping that the lawlessness and looting that erupted in several cities will convince the people, particularly middle-class Cairenes, that revolution is too risky. Mubarak has always symbolised order. The prospect of chaos is a good argument for caution. Meanwhile there were signs today that the security forces are closely marshalling the protests, attempting to exert maximum control without actually crushing them. Likewise, rising food and fuel prices, shortages, lost earnings, closed businesses, falling exports and reduced tourism caused by the unrest will have a growing impact on ordinary working people at the heart of the protests. The regime’s strategy appears to be wait them out, to wear them out, to hope that, in time, the fervour and size of the protests will abate – that literally, they will run out of energy. On the political front, a proffered timetable for fresh parliamentary and presidential elections, possibly this autumn, coinciding with the end of Mubarak’s term, under some form of international or independent supervision, may soon be forthcoming – another way for the regime to escape the morass. Mubarak could then hand over power in the normal way (though it would be abnormal for Egypt). His son, Gamal Mubarak, presumably, would play no future part. Just how honest and open new elections might be, once the pressure on the streets has abated, is questionable. Whether they would usher in a truly new era for Egypt is highly doubtful at this point. At this moment, there remains all to play for. But through history, the fate of revolutions is to be hijacked. Egyptians will hope they don’t get fooled again. Egypt Middle East Protest US foreign policy Obama administration Simon Tisdall guardian.co.uk

Posted by on February 1, 2011. Filed under News, Politics, World News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry