Turkey-Egypt talks stoke Israeli fears of political isolation

Speculation grows in Jerusalem over Turkey prime minister’s trip to Cairo amid concerns it could deepen regional tension The Turkish prime minister is to visit Cairo on Monday amid concern in Israel that he may seek an alliance between the two countries with the aim of increasing the Jewish state’s isolation in the region. The visit by Recep Tayyip Erdogan – the first by a Turkish leader to Egypt for 15 years – comes against the backdrop of a spiralling diplomatic offensive against Israel by Ankara, which the US is seeking to contain. A separate crisis between Israel and Egypt after the killing of five Egyptian security officers last month appears to have been averted. But relations between the two neighbours remain delicate, a situation Erdogan may seek to exploit. Turkey and Egypt are expected to explore areas of co-operation, and Erdogan may offer the post-Mubarak government much-needed financial aid, which would inevitably secure him leverage. “Turkey may be ready to invest a lot of money and effort into building Egypt as a regional ally,” said Alon Liel, a former Israeli envoy to Ankara. “He may try to persuade them to downgrade relations with Israel.” According to Yossi Alpher, an Israeli analyst and co-editor of the BitterLemons website, Erdogan “is flexing Turkey’s muscles. He’s now trying to project Turkish influence into Egypt. There’s concern that he will offer financial aid to Egypt, which needs it desperately, and that will give him a degree of influence. There’s concern that Erdogan will hook up with the Egyptian Islamists, who are growing in influence. And there’s concern that he will persuade the Egyptians to allow him to visit Gaza, where he will proclaim himself its saviour. None of this is good from Israel’s perspective.” In Gaza, the Turkish prime minister would be assured of both a hero’s welcome and of incurring Israel’s wrath. However, Israel has not so far picked up indications that the Egyptians have agreed to Erdogan crossing their border into Gaza, according to an Israeli government source. The visit to Cairo follows a series of punitive measures taken by the Turkish government – including expelling the Israeli ambassador, suspending defence trade agreements and threatening to deploy Turkish gunboats to patrol the eastern Mediterranean – in the aftermath of Israel’s refusal to apologise for its deadly attack on a Gaza-bound flotilla last May. A UN report published a week ago concluded that Israel had used “excessive and unreasonable” force in stopping the Mavi Marmara, although it also said its naval blockade of Gaza was legal. Nine Turkish activists were killed on board the ship, for which Turkey demanded an apology and compensation paid to the men’s families. The US, concerned about the breach between the allies, has stepped in to try to contain the crisis. Dan Shapiro, US ambassador to Israel, said: “We are encouraging both countries to find a way to work together to overcome their differences and restore at least some of the friendship that they previously had.” Israel’s refusal to apologise for the deaths was in contrast to its swift statement of regret three weeks ago after the fatal shooting of Egyptian security personnel in the aftermath of a militant attack near the Egypt-Israel border in which eight Israelis were killed. “The mistakes that Israel is making are much more evident in the case of Turkey than in the case of Israel,” said Alpher. “Damage control was relatively more forthcoming with the apology to Egypt than in the case of Turkey, where we basically allowed ourselves to walk right into repeated traps that Erdogan has set for us.” The regret expressed to Egypt was not enough to prevent days of vociferous anti-Israel protests in Cairo. To Israel’s alarm, the post-Mubarak government made it clear it was listening to the mood on the street. Israel can ill afford to lose regional allies, especially in the runup to an expected vote in favour of recognising a Palestinian state at the UN this month. Turkey and Egypt are backing the Palestinian bid. As well as wide political ramifications, a breach with Turkey could have serious economic consequences, Stanley Fischer, governor of the Bank of Israel, warned this week. Trade between the two countries is worth $3.5bn-$4bn a year. The breach “will affect tourism, trade, culture and sport” as well as diplomatic relations, said Liel. Israeli government ministers and officials have been issued clear instructions to refrain from comment in an attempt to de-escalate the crisis. However the Israeli paper Yedioth Ahronoth reported on Friday that Avigdor Lieberman, the provocative rightwing foreign minister, was considering a series of measures against Turkey in retaliation for Ankara’s moves. According to Alpher, retaliatory steps would exacerbate the crisis. “We have a lot to lose not just economically but also regionally, to the extent that we get drawn deeper into a clash with Turkey,” he said. “We were foolish not to apologise [for the Mavi Marmara deaths]. We should still be trying to maintain a low profile and hope friends like the US can try to some extent mend fences here before things get worse.” Turkey Israel Egypt Gaza flotilla Gaza Recep Tayyip Erdogan Palestinian territories Middle East Africa Europe Harriet Sherwood guardian.co.uk

Posted by on September 9, 2011. Filed under News, Politics, World News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.