AV turnout higher than predicted

Join us for live coverage as the votes are counted in the referendum on the alternative vote 5.00pm: This is what the pollsters were predicting on AV. YouGov (pdf). This is their figure based on those certain to vote. Yes: 40% No: 60% ComRes Yes: 34% No: 66% ICM Yes: 32% No: 68% Angus Reid Yes: 39% No: 61% 4.54pm: The AV results are being counted by “voting area”. In England and Northern Ireland these are local authority areas, and in Wales and Scotland they are parliamentary constituencies. There are 440 of them. Two have counted so far, and the votes are dividing: yes – 39%; no – 61%. 4.51pm: The first AV referendum results are in. And it looks as if the pollsters are not going to have too much to worry about. Here they are, from the Isles of Scilly Yes 288 (34.70%) No 542 (65.30%) No maj 254 (30.60%) Electorate 1,737; Turnout 830 (47.78%) You can see the results as they come in on the Electoral Commission’s website. 4.44pm: Ray Mallon, the former police officer nicknamed Robocop for his tough stance on crime, has won a third term as mayor of Middlesbrough. In other mayoral elections, Gordon Oliver, a Conservative, has been as the new mayor of Torbay. He beat the incumbent Nick Bye, an independent. And in Mansfield Tony Egginton, an independent, was re-elected as mayor. 4.40pm: They’ve been crunching the AV numbers at the BBC and think that the winning side will need 9.8m votes to win. Or to get “first past the post”, as you could put it. 4.30pm: In Northern Ireland the election turnout appears to be lower than usual. My colleague Henry McDonald has sent me a note on this. One Queen’s University Belfast academic Dr Peter Shirlow has interpreted the lower than usual turn out in the Northern Ireland election as a sign that Ulster society is becoming more normal. In the past elections have been tribal contests where voters turned out in large numbers to keep the “other side” out. Thirty years ago more than 80% of the electorate in Fermanagh/South Tyrone turned out to vote in a Westminster by-election when IRA hunger striker Bobby Sands was elected as an MP even though he was dying in the Maze prison. Dr Shirlow may have a point here about these new turn out figures. Arguably the figure of around 55% indicates that Northern Ireland is becoming more like the rest of the UK and the Republic. 4.28pm: Here’s some more on those AV turnout figures. No one was making any firm predictions about turnout in the AV referendum, but these figures are certainly higher than I was expecting. I thought the London turnout could well fall below 30%. The turnout in London was higher than it was when Londoners voted in 1998 in a referendum on whether to have a mayor. The turnout then was 34.1%. But the turnout in the North East was lower than the 47.7% turnout in 2004 in the referendum on whether to have North East Assembly. 4.26pm: Iain Gray has announced that he will resign as Labour’s leader in Scotland in the autumn. Ed Miliband said that he respected Gray’s decision and that he wanted to thank him for everything he had done. 4.02pm: For the last 18 hours officials have been counting the votes cast for the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly, the Northern Ireland Assembly and almost 300 English councils. But it’s only now that they are starting to count the results in the referendum on the alternative vote. This was the only election open to everyone in the UK and potentially it could change the British constitution in an important way – but only if the pollsters have collectively made the most enormous mistake in British polling history. Assuming they haven’t, the no team will win easily. But this is an important story too, possibly quashing hopes of electoral reform for a generation and producing long-term challenges for the Lib Dems. Here is what the Electoral Commission has been saying about the turnout figures. 4 of the 12 regions have yet to provide figures, and the Commission will announce these shortly. Counting Officers will begin counting the Yes and No votes from 4pm today. The provisional turnout for each referendum region received to date is: Region Turnout As percentage of registered voters London 1.86 million 35.4 % South West 1.80 million 44.6% Eastern 1.84 million 43.1% West Midlands 1.63 million 39.8% Yorkshire and the Humber 1.53 million 39.9% North West 2.05 million 39.1% North East 0.76 million 38.7% Scotland 1.98 million 50.7% I’ll be focusing on the AV results for the rest of the day, although I’ll also be covering elections results as they continue to come in. 4.00pm: For all the election results and reaction to them up until 4pm on Friday, do read our earlier live blog. Alternative vote AV referendum David Cameron Conservatives Nick Clegg Liberal Democrats Andrew Sparrow guardian.co.uk

Posted by on May 6, 2011. Filed under News, Politics, World News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.