UK goes to the polls – live coverage

Rolling coverage as results come in from elections to the Scottish parliament, the Welsh and Northern Irish assemblies and 279 English councils 9.52pm: Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting is running a poll on which AV poll will turn out to be most accurate. He lists four polls, ranging from YouGov putting the no camp on 60% to ICM putting it on 68%. 9.42pm: My colleague Severin Carrell has sent me a note about the boundary changes in Scotland. The Holyrood elections have an extra twist to them: boundary changes last year means that many of the Scottish parliament’s 73 constituencies are more difficult to call, lending this year’s election campaign greater unpredictability. A seat-by-seat analysis by David Denver of Lancaster university last year suggests the Tories gain most: if the 2007 election had been fought on the new boundaries, the Tories could have had 19 seats, not 18, while Labour would fall back one to 45 and the SNP to 46, rather than the 47 they actually won. Denver says 42 seats have seen “major change”, leaving 19 new ones as “hotly contested”. In theory, SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon would very narrowly lose the new seat of Glasgow Southside to Labour, while the SNP would take Aberdeen Central from Labour and their first seat in the Borders: Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale. 9.40pm: To put the figures we get tonight into perspective, here are some other national share of the vote figures. From the 2007 local elections, when the seats up for election today were last contested. This is the estimated national equivalent share of the vote figure. I’ve taken it from the chart on page 6 of this House of Commons research paper (pdf). Conservatives: 40% Labour: 26% Lib Dems: 24% From the 2010 general election. (These are the real GB voting figures for Westminster.) Conservatives: 37% Labour: 30% Lib Dems: 24% From the latest YouGov poll of voting intentions in a general election (pdf). Conservatives: 36% Labour: 40% Lib Dems: 11% 9.17pm: One of the key Labour targets in the north of England is Sheffield. My colleague Martin Wainwright will be at the count. He’s just sent me this. Labour has an easy task on the face of it in Sheffield, where the joy of embarrassing local MP Nick Clegg is a much-touted bonus of knocking out the Lib Dem minority administration. But the party is well aware that they only just managed to end the LD’s overall majority last May, and tough-as-boots Lib Dem leader Paul Scriven also survived Coun Bill Curran’s defection to Labour in September. That left Scriven with 41 members against 40 Labour, two Green and an independent. A third of the seats – 28 – are up for election tonight and there are plenty of close battlegrounds. Curran’s Walkley ward sees Lib Dem cabinet member for housing Penny Baker defend a majority of 36 last time she stood. Her colleagues in Gleadless Valley and East Ecclesfield are defending margins of 51 and 74. Nick Clegg isn’t lying low. Far from it. He voted this morning in his Sheffield Hallam constituency, bright an early, and said that local people understood that the government had a difficult job and was trying to do it “fairly, compassionately and responsibly.” First results at the English Institute of Sport are expected between 1 and 2am and a clear picture by 2.30am. 8.56pm: What are the key councils to watch? The best guide I’ve read is the one produced by Andy Sawford at the Local Government Information Unit. He’s written mini profiles of 50 councils where the results will be particularly interesting. 8.29pm: So, how do we work who’s having a good night? All parties manage expectations before elections and this year, in relation to the English local elections, we’ve seen some really blatant examples of this. This is what the three main parties have been saying. Conservatives “We’ll be pleased if we don’t lose 1,000 seats,” is the offical line from Tory HQ. Maybe I’m too cynical, but I interpreted that as evidence that they are fairly sure they won’t lose 1,000 seats. They are defending more seats than Labour and the Lib Dems combined. But, if the national opinion polls are anything to go by, the story of the night will be the collapse in the Lib Dem vote, and around 75% of the Lib Dem seats up for election are being contested in areas where the Tories are their main rivals. David Cameron could conceivably do quite well from Nick Clegg’s unpopularity (which is another reason why tonight could have an interesting impact on coalition relations). Labour Labour say that, on the basis of the way people have been voting in local council byelections, their share of the vote is 38%, the Conservatives’ 35% and the Lib Dems’ 18%. In these elections – real elections – Labour are ahead, but not by as much as they have been in most recent national opinion polls. They say that on this basis they would expect to gain between 400 and 600 seats. Their problem is that Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University’s Elections Centre, who are the acknowledged experts on local elections, have also been looking at voting in council byelections and, according to this story in the Sunday Times (paywall), they think the trend suggests Labour could win as many as 1,300 seats. Rallings and Thrasher think the Tories could lose nearly 1,000 seats, and the Lib Dems about 400 seats. I’ve asked Labour to explain why the Rallings and Thrasher extrapolated figures are so different from the Labour party’s, but the officials I spoke to were unable to provide an explanation. Lib Dems “We are going to lose hundreds of seats,” a Lib Dem source told me tonight. That does fit with the Rallings and Thrasher analysis. But the Lib Dems are worried that the media will focus on the number of councils under Lib Dem control, and not on seats. There are a number of councils in the north of England where Labour could win control on the basis of just a handful of seats changing hands, I was told. The Lib Dems will claim that such losses don’t represent a drastic collapse in support. 8.27pm: Before we get going, here are some facts about the seats that are up for election today. English local elections Some 279 English councils are holding elections. In English local government some councils put all seats up for election (“all-out elections”) every four years and some councils hold more frequent elections with just a third of the seats up for grabs each time. Today’s poll is a particularly large one – more than 31 million people in England can participate in council elections – because both types of contest are taking place. To be precise, elections are taking place in 49 unitary authorities, 36 metropolitan districts and 194 non-metropolitan districts. Some 9,396 seats are being contested. That’s 52% of all English council seats. On a party basis, they divide up like this: Conservatives: 5,029 (55% of all Conservative council seats in England) Labour: 1,620 (39%) Lib Dem: 1,867 (52%) Scotland All 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament are being contested. Some 73 constituency MSPs will be elected by first past the post. Another 56 MSPs will be elected by proportional representation from regional lists. The boundaries have changed since the last elections in 2007. These are the “notional” results for 2007, based on what academics believe the results would have been if that election had been fought on the new boundaries. SNP: 46 seats Labour: 45 Conservatives: 19 Lib Dems: 17 Greens: 1 Others: 1 Wales All 60 seats in the Welsh Assembly are being contested. Some 40 constituency AMs will be be elected by first past the post, and another 40 will be elected from lists using PR. In 2007 the results were: Labour: 26 seats Plaid Cymru: 15 Conservatives: 12 Lib Dems: 6 Independent: 1 Northern Ireland All 108 seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly are being contested. Members are elected in 18 six-member constituencies by the single transferable vote PR system. In 2007 the results were: Democratic Unionist Party: 36 Sinn Fein: 28 Ulster Unionist Party: 18 Social Democratic and Labour Party: 16 Alliance: 7 Green: 1 Progressive Unionist Party: 1 Independents: 5 8.00pm: According to the Independent, it’s Super Thursday. There have been parliamentary or assembly elections in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and local elections in England and Northern Ireland. There are local elections in England every year, but this is the biggest set of elections in the four-year local government election cycle and more than 30 million people in England have had the chance to take part. On top of that, we’ve all had the chance to take part in the referendum on the alternative vote. Outside of a general election, an election night doesn’t come much bigger than this. Elections are always exciting because of what they tell you about the state of the parties nationally, and as the results come in over the next 24 hours I’ll be posting furiously about what they have to tell us about Ed Miliband’s attempts to revive the Labour party, about what being in government has done to the standing of David Cameron’s Conservative party and about quite how disastrous it all is for the Liberal Democrats and Nick Clegg. But this time there’s even more than usual at stake. The result of the AV referendum seems likely to kill all prospects of electoral reform for a generation (which could have quite profound consequences for the Lib Dems, as yet probably not fully understood). The character of Westminster coalition seems to have changed fundamentally as a result of the campaign and the way it has been conducted. Wales and Northern Ireland are electing assemblies enjoying more self-confidence and power than they’ve had before. And if, as expected, Alex Salmond wins a second term as Scotland’s first minister, then we’ll have to conclude that his long-term plan to achieve independence by stealth seems to be going reasonably well. The future of the Union hasn’t been much of an issue in the Scottish election campaign, but conceivably tonight’s results could have considerably bearing on it. Here’s a timetable of what’s coming up. Thursday night 10pm: The polls close. Counting starts in most of the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly seats, and in many of the 279 English councils where elections are taking place. 10.30pm: Sky News starts its election programme, Decision Time 2011, with Adam Boulton presenting. 11.35pm: The BBC’s election programme, Vote 2011, starts on BBC 1, with David Dimbleby presenting. Around 12pm: The first Welsh results and English council results are expected. Sunderland is often the first English council to declare. Friday Around 2am: The first Scottish results are expected. A large number of English council results are expected between 2am and 3am. Around 3am: Results should be coming in thick and fast. Sheffield, a key Labour target, is one of the councils expected to declare around about now. 7.30am: Counting starts in the Leicester South byelection. 8am: Counting starts in the Northern Ireland assembly elections. Around 9am: Counting starts in Northern Ireland and in the Leicester South byelection Around 11am: Results start to come in from the small number of Scottish and Welsh constituencies that did not count overnight and from the 160-odd English councils counting on Friday. Around 2pm: Results start to come in from Northern Ireland. Around 2.30pm: The Electoral Commission is expected to announce the turnout in the AV referendum. 4pm: Counting of the votes in the AV referendum starts. The full results are not due in until around 9pm or later, but one side – the no camp, unless the polls are totally wrong – may well get more than 50% of the vote before then. By Friday night almost all the counting will be over. But the final results of the Northern Ireland assembly elections are not expected until Saturday afternoon, and the counting in the Northern Ireland local elections does not start until Monday. I’ll be blogging until around 6am tomorrow. My colleague Hélène Mulholland will then take over as we launch a new blog, and I’ll be back on Friday afternoon in time for the AV results. Local elections Local elections 2011 Welsh Assembly Government Welsh elections 2011 Welsh politics Scottish politics Scottish elections 2011 Elections 2011 Northern Irish politics Local politics Local government Alternative vote AV referendum Labour Liberal Democrats Conservatives Andrew Sparrow guardian.co.uk

Posted by on May 5, 2011. Filed under News, Politics, World News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.